The upcoming elections, which should be a periodic festival of democracy, have turned into a sudden ritual to ward off negative energy that has spread unexpectedly across the country since September 8-9, 2025. However, rituals performed to ward off evil have their own significance, if nothing else, they provide peace of mind and strengthen the self-confidence to deal with any situation that may arise. Therefore, even if there is no joy, it is the duty of a responsible citizen to vote with enthusiasm. Although the right to boycott cannot be undermined since there are no options like ‘none of the above’ or ‘do not wish to vote’ (no vote), the traditional method of peace and tranquility also has an objective in itself. There is no other option but elections to free the people’s representatives from the ‘discord government’ formed under the leadership of the military and restore power.

It is the responsibility of the government to prevent decisions from being made against the interests of its community in policy-making. Only its inner self knows how much work the billionaires who were people's representatives in the name of Madhesh in the past have done to protect the interests of Madhesh and Madhesis.   There are other ironies of the sudden elections of March 5, 2026. If we look at the propaganda so far, the election to elect members of parliament has been limited to the race for the Prime Minister. That is an open mockery of the parliamentary system. It is not unusual for new players to have a strong desire to become ‘elected kings’. They have seen parliamentary distortions, but they have not been able to grasp the traditions, practices and tenacity of a multi-party system. In a mixed electoral system, a proportional MP represents his party’s supporters across the country and must ensure that he does not deviate from the policies declared by his party leader. The proportional MP is also responsible for checking the qualifications of a potential chief executive who can win a majority, either alone or through an alliance. He is also responsible for preventing decisions against the interests of his community in policy-making. Only his inner self knows how much work the billionaires who were people’s representatives in the name of Madhesh in the past have done to protect the interests of Madhesh and Madhesis. A directly elected MP plays a dual role – on the one hand, he is a people’s representative who addresses the grievances of his constituency, and on the other, he is also a policymaker who is constantly committed to the interests of the country. It is not unusual for a predetermined Prime Minister to be reluctant to elect people's representatives who are limited to a 'fingerprint' role. 

Although confusion is prevalent throughout the country, the vulnerability of Madhesh voters is even more alarming. The old bases of voting have weakened somewhat. With three types of candidates from the same caste, casteism is no longer decisive. Due to the character of those who have fueled the Madhesh rebellions, it must be difficult for their representatives to find shelter. Since the voice of permanent power remains the same, the benefits of the patron-protected relationship will certainly be reaped by familiar faces, but new voters have been loosening their iron grip. The two presumptive prime ministers who are in the race for the directly elected chief executive have made the competition confusing instead of interesting. The face who has come to seek votes as a ‘Madhesi Chhaura’ is the outgoing mayor of the capital. The father bears the responsibility, the Chhaura seeks unconditional pampering and is robbed. It has become difficult to bridge the gap for those who have run away from the responsibility of their father. Another candidate has become even more ‘the son of Madhesh’ and has come to claim the ancestral property directly. It does not matter who the chief executive is who is chosen through his representative, but it is not unusual to get confused when a local candidate starts going door to door wearing the mask of a presumptive prime minister.

From the perspective of the common people of Madhesh, the part of the chaupai that Manthara says in Tulsi’s Ramcharitmanas while inciting Kaikeyi – ‘Who is the one who ‘Whoever becomes a king, what harm will it do me? What will I do now, a queen, after leaving my job?’ The questions embedded in the Nepali sentimental translation depict the disturbed mood of the Madhesi common people. The competitors eager to become Bharat, who worship Ram’s feet or feet, do not look much different from the cadres of ethnic chiefs of the Khas-Aryan community. The ‘revolutionary hero’, who once became a ‘wall president’ and looks like a political box that has run out of ammunition, does not have any new ideas or programs. Meanwhile, the arrogant attack of the Americans is shaking West Asia. The intensification of the war in a region where nearly two million Nepali workers are employed is a concern as well as a sense of national powerlessness. The fear of uncertainty is mixed into the apathy of the general electorate, although since the impact and extent of the war are difficult to assess, it seems that the internal fear is covered by silence. Perhaps, even if rituals do nothing else, they can divert a person’s attention to the work that can be done and distract them? The ballot box not only renews elite control, it also gives birth to new elites. It is the destiny of the common people to continue doing deeds without expecting results. Those who have reached the ritual also talk to each other. This time, perhaps the discussion of ‘who will win’ at the polling station will be more about the US attack on Tehran and Iran’s counter-attack than the election. The weak have a tendency to rejoice by cutting off the words of the strong, and it is natural to be worried because Nepal has the economic resources of West Asia.

Tradition of retaliation

  Those who will be the victims of Iran's revenge and America's arrogance are the ones who were forced to sweat in the desert without seeing a future in their own country. Although it may sound bitter, the millions of cars and motorcycles that run on the streets of Kathmandu are directly or indirectly mixed with the blood and sweat of workers working in West Asia. Even if the axis (Axis) consisting of America, Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council seems invincible, it would be rash to ignore Iran, which has become a mole. The spirit of revenge is not new in the deserts of Asia. Revenge has been an integral part of both Sunni and Shia cultural consciousness. Israel is even more violent in its hostility. The situation in the region appears to have reached a more complex and challenging point with the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the holy month of Ramadan, due to the ambitions of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring about regime change in Tehran. In Shia religious and political culture, the assassination of the Supreme Leader is viewed through the eyes of the 'Story of Karbala' and the 'Martyrdom of Imam Hussein'. Although the West considers it a military success, Iranian society must have accepted it as a 'holy sacrifice'.  

Tehran is now turning public anger into military action, citing a full 40 days of mourning and ‘majlumiyat’ (the virtue of being oppressed). The sacrifice of a martyr demands a ‘blood debt’, which is almost certain to further strengthen the regime by appeasing internal discontent. Rather than immediately sparking a rebellion in Iran, the US attack is more likely to strengthen the military-theocracy. Trump and Netanyahu’s short-sighted attacks have erased the internal divisions of the Iranian people and pitted them against a single ‘common injustice’. Ultimately, the future of Iran will be determined by the conflict between the regime’s ‘use of the weapon of martyrdom’ and the ‘ideological fatigue’ of the people.

This festering wound in West Asia is not only a violent struggle between Tehran and Washington between ‘who will die and who will win’, but also a ‘Sword of Damocles’ hanging over the shoulders of two million Nepali workers who have no role in the war and are sweating in the deserts of the Gulf. In geopolitics, when the powers called ‘the center’ turn the tables on intelligence for their own ego satisfaction, then innocent citizens of countries like Nepal on the ‘periphery’ are forced to be sacrificed as goats. The tension arising from Israel’s arrogance, American arrogance and Iran’s audacity has turned West Asia into a powder keg. The workers of South Asia build luxurious palaces and roads there, but when the war cries, they have neither a bunker to hide in nor a safe plane to return to. The ones who will be the victims of Iran's revenge and America's arrogance are the ones who were forced to sweat in the desert without seeing a future in their own country. Although it may sound bitter, the millions of cars and millions of motorcycles running on the streets of Kathmandu are directly or indirectly mixed with the blood and sweat of workers working in West Asia. Worried about the safety of relatives in a foreign war, seeking relief from stress through rituals has been the fate of ordinary people in the hills at least since the First World War. Now, the Madhesi families of workers stranded in Arabia have also been involved in such worries. The risk that the West Asian war could turn into a national crisis for Nepal has increased dramatically.

It must be repeated again and again that Nepal's economy is surviving on the oxygen of remittances, because there is a widespread illusion among Nepali businessmen in the country's profit sector that they are the backbone of economic activity. If the West Asian fire is not extinguished for a long time, not only will jobs be lost, but Nepal's national kitchen may also be closed. The flow of cash into the hands of those who can chew the products of 'Gutkha King' will be disrupted. What do those who sit in South Asia and shout the slogans of 'change of power in Iran' by the Americans know - from Chattogram in Bangladesh to Quetta in Pakistan and from Kathmandu in the lap of the Himalayas to Kandy in the Indian Ocean, the economic tremors of the turbulent West Asia are sure to be felt with equal passion.

Sardar Yadunath Khanal, a unique scholar of economics, politics, literature and diplomacy, used to ponder without concern about the helpless fate of small countries in the geopolitics of the Cold War. In the developing 'Cold War-2', the situation of small countries like Nepal has become not just 'yam between two rocks' but 'elephant fighting, calf fighting'. The rulers may play the flute of neutrality while sitting in Kathmandu, but when it comes to safely rescuing their two million citizens, the helpless form of Nepal's state machinery is seen naked. A government that lacks the diplomatic power to save its citizens can do nothing but appeal to the stranded to stay safe. No matter how much the talk of providing employment in the country sounds, it does not seem possible right now due to the lack of imagination in the profit sector, greed for immediate benefits, and lack of financial capacity to make long-term investments. The doubly landlocked industrial geography - the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, which share a long border with Nepal, are themselves labor-exporting regions due to their landlocked destiny - does not often attract foreign economic investment. In a world system where justice is served by the powerful, the workers of small countries are considered collateral damage - the rulers of Singha Durbar, which once burned down and collapsed in an earthquake and the rebuilt structures were burned down, are aware of this, although the families of Mahottari and Dhanusha are unaware.

Although the US has unofficially announced the start of Cold War-2 with bombs, ammunition, and missiles, the response strategy of China and Russia is still not clear. Beijing must also be thinking about a strategy to counter the Western encirclement. For China, Iran is a strategic partner as well as an energy source. Instability in Iran will negatively affect China's 'Belt and Road Initiative'. For Moscow, which is embroiled in the Ukraine war, the tension with Iran may seem like a short-term boon. Russia will find relief for a while as America's attention and resources are diverted from Ukraine to West Asia. However, President Vladimir Putin is a strategic player who was honed in the fires of the first Cold War. It would not be surprising if Russia further fuels the 'proxy' war by providing military technology to Iran.

आखिर नेपालीले उपभोग गर्ने नुन–तेलदेखि चामल र औषधिसम्म कि भारतबाट वा भारत भएर नेपाल आउने गर्छ । यदि ओर्मुज जलसन्धि अवरुद्ध भयो भने विश्व बजारमा कच्चा तेलको भाउ अकासिनेछ । खस–आर्यका नृजातीय मुख्तियारले देखाएका दैलेखको प्राकृतिक ग्यास एवं हिमालपारिबाट ओर्लिने पेट्रोलियम ट्यांकरहरूको प्रतिबद्धता अद्यापि सपनामै सीमित छ ।  The most important aspect of the geopolitical conflict for Nepal is New Delhi's response. India was developing Iran's Chabahar port as a gateway to Central Asia. It was slowly adopting a 'pivot to the West' policy, making Israeli and American technology modern pillars of security. भारतले रणनीतिक स्वायत्तता र कूटनीतिक संयमताको मन्त्र जपे पनि भित्रभित्रै ठूलो आर्थिक धक्काका लागि तयारी सुरु गरिसकेको हुनुपर्छ । भारत भएर आउने संकटले नेपालको अर्थतन्त्रमा परकम्प ल्याउन सक्छ भन्ने आकलन गर्न कुनै विज्ञ वा विश्लेषक हुनु पर्दैन– नेपालको ९० प्रतिशतभन्दा बढी आयात ‘भारत–आश्रित’ छ । 

पाइपलाइनमार्फत होस् वा ट्यांकरबाट ढुवानी गरिएको, नेपालले उपभोग गर्ने शतप्रतिशत इन्धन भारतको इन्डियन आयल कर्पोरेसनबाट आउँछ । पेट्रोलियम पदार्थको अभाव, मूल्यवृद्धि र हाहाकार सम्भाव्य संकटको भविष्यवाणी नभएर पूर्वतयारीका लागि सावधानीपूर्ण जानकारीका रूपमा लिइनु उपयुक्त हुनेछ । आखिर नेपालीले उपभोग गर्ने नुन–तेलदेखि चामल र औषधिसम्म कि भारतबाट वा भारत भएर नेपाल आउने गर्छ । यदि ओर्मुज जलसन्धि अवरुद्ध भयो भने विश्व बजारमा कच्चा तेलको भाउ अकासिनेछ । खस–आर्यका नृजातीय मुख्तियारले देखाएका दैलेखको प्राकृतिक ग्यास एवं हिमालपारिबाट ओर्लिने पेट्रोलियम ट्यांकरहरूको प्रतिबद्धता अद्यापि सपनामै सीमित छ । उपभोग्य सामग्री र आयातित सामानको मोलको कुरा गर्दा बिर्सिनै नसकिने धरातलीय यथार्थ के हो भने नेपालको महँगी आदर्शनगरका व्यापारी, असनका थोक विक्रेता वा कुलेश्वरका साहुहरूले निर्धारण गर्दैनन्, त्यसको रिमोट मुम्बईको तेल बजारका खेलाडी, दिल्लीका आढतिया (कमिसन एजेन्ट) एवं कोलकाताका ढुवानी सिन्डिकेटका सञ्चालकहरूको हातमा हुन्छ । अहिले वैदेशिक मुद्राको सञ्चिति पर्याप्त रहे पनि संकट लम्बिँदै गर्दा त्यसमा पर्ने दबाबले श्रीलंकाको परिस्थिति निम्त्याउन सक्छ ।

सीमित छनोट

शक्तिशालीहरूको महासंग्राममा कमजोर देशहरूले गर्न सक्ने खासै केही हुँदैन । कूटनीतिक समाधान खोज्ने अनुरोध महाशक्तिहरूले सुन्दैनन् । आफ्नो कुनै दोष नरहेको भूआर्थिक हुँडरीबाट जोगिने एक मात्र उपाय आन्तरिक शक्ति सञ्चय, निरन्तर निगरानी एवं पूर्वतयारी मात्र हुन सक्छ । ऊर्जा सुरक्षा, खाद्य सम्प्रभुता र मितव्ययिताको त्रिकोणात्मक सम्बन्धबारे सन् १९८० देखि नै चर्चा भइरहे पनि पर्याप्त तयारी भने अद्यापि हुन सकेको छैन । वस्तु निर्यातको सबै कमाइ पनि पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ आयातको खर्च धान्न नसकिने अवस्था अहिले पनि यथावत् छ । एक आर्थिक विश्लेषकका अनुसार खाडीको युद्धले तेलको भाउ बढाउनासाथ वैदेशिक मुद्राको सञ्चिति हातमा रहेको ‘आइसक्रिम’ घाममा सुकाएझैं पग्लिन थाल्नेछ । विद्युतीय निजी सवारीसाधनको बिक्री बढ्नु नराम्रो होइन तर आपूर्ति व्यवस्थाको मेरुदण्ड रहेको ट्रक एवं सार्वजनिक यातायातका बसहरूको विद्युतीकरणबेगर उफ्रीउफ्री रमाउनुको अर्थ छैन । भान्साबाट दाउरा हटाएर ग्यास पुर्‍याउनु उपलब्धि हो, अर्को चरण भने विद्युतीय चुलोको व्यापीकरण हुनुपर्छ ।

भारतबाट दाल–चामल र ब्राजिलबाट भटमास मगाएर रमाउने मध्यमवर्ग कृषि कर्ममा फर्किने सम्भावना न्यून छ । वैदेशिक रोजगारको भिसा कुरिरहँदा भ्रष्टाचारको विरोध गर्दै ‘नेपो बेबिज’ विरुद्ध नारा लगाउने टिकटक पुस्ताका नवयुवा मधेशको खेतमा ट्र्याक्टर वा पहाडका गरा खन्न कोदालो चलाउन जानेवाला छैनन् । बाँझो जमिन र युवा शक्तिलाई जोड्न ‘खाद्य सैनिक’ परियोजनाका लागि सरकारको अग्रसरता आवश्यक पर्नेछ । त्यस्तो कदम उठाउने हिम्मत नेपालका तथाकथित वामपन्थीहरूमा पनि छैन । आयातित बीउ र मलको साटो रैथाने एवं जैविक उत्पादन प्रणालीले ‘श्रीलंकाकरण’ निम्त्याउन सक्छ भन्ने डर अस्वाभाविक होइन तर विकल्पको खोजीले आवश्यक सावधानी अपनाउन पनि प्रोत्साहित गर्छ ।

संकटका बेला सबभन्दा बिझ्ने नेपाली समाजमा व्याप्त रहेको देखावटी उपभोक्तावादको प्रकोप हो । मन्त्रीले चढ्ने बडेमानको गाडी र लावालस्करको आलोचना हुनुपर्छ । नृजातीय मुख्तियारले काठमाडौंदेखि बुटवल र झापादेखि पोखरासम्म ठड्याउन लगाएका सेता हात्तीजस्ता भौतिक संरचनाहरूको रेखदेख र सञ्चालन खर्चले लामो कालसम्म राष्ट्रिय कोषलाई पिरोल्ने निश्चित छ । तर, ती त केवल लक्षण हुन्– सीमित स्रोत भएको देशमा विलासिताको संस्कृति हाबी भयो भने भ्रष्टाचार संस्थागत हुन्छ र आवश्यकताभन्दा पनि चाहना पूर्तिका लागि शक्तिशाली व्यक्तिहरू जस्तोसुकै सम्झौता गर्न तयार हुन्छन् । राज्यको फजुल खर्ची नियन्त्रणका लागि आवाज उठाउनु सँगसँगै व्यक्तिगत मितव्ययिता अँगाल्नु पनि उत्तिकै महत्त्वपूर्ण हुन्छ भन्ने कुरा खास गरेर राजनीतिक र सामाजिक अगुवाहरूले आत्मसात् गर्न जरुरी छ ।