The constitutional crisis created by the autumn explosion of the Green Belt rebellion on 8–9 September 2025 had necessitated the restoration of the House of Representatives or an election as an option. Since the restoration is a legal issue, it is pending in the courts. Since seeking a political solution through elections is a universally accepted democratic process, it is not unusual for established but neglected and emerging politicians to come together in the selection process.

The executive branch also likes elections because it allows them to show work. It is natural for businessmen to like elections because there is a large cash flow in the economy, which has been stagnant for a long time. Since the upcoming elections are not periodic, mid-term or urgent but are of an emergency nature, old politicians are joining the political competition with dirty faces without any prior preparation.

Politicians of the National Independent Party, which has managed to show a significant presence in national politics in a relatively short time, seem the most excited. That new party was directly or indirectly linked to the Sharad Bhojpuri. That is why the Rashtriya Swatantra Party has become a natural launching pad for the national political flight of Balendra Shah, the 'nominee hero' of the Haritpiet rebellion.

It will probably not be easy for Ravi Lamichhane to maintain his political leadership over the Rashtriya Swatantra Party as he is involved in a financial fraud case that has attracted international attention. Whether Shah becomes prime minister or not after the upcoming elections, the former mayor of Kathmandu has found a suitable political vehicle to advance his ambitions.

The then prime minister, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, who was the main target of the anger of the young people of the autumn explosion, seems politically safe for now, although it remains to be seen whether that will last until the counting of votes. Despite some tumbling, his image as the ethnic chief of the Khas Arya community remains intact. He has further tightened his control over the UML party.

It makes sense that politicians who are adept at exploiting opportunities, from Istiak Rai of Banke and Birendra Kumar Kanaudia of Kapilvastu to Rajeshman Singh and Pradeep Yadav of Parsa, are taking refuge in him as goons during the election campaign. Although the UML organization is somewhat weakened, the party has maintained its presence across the country.

Despite being hesitant to openly support the party due to fear of majoritarian backlash, the reason why Muslims in Madhesh and Christians and ancestor-worshiping voters in the hills prefer the UML over other parties is that Sharma Oli is relatively more liberal than his rivals on the issue of secularism. Sharma Oli may talk about Ram Janmabhoomi, the golden lake and the sages to appease the dominant community, but the atheistic Naxalism in his heart may still be alive.

Although the activities of the UML's sister organizations and non-governmental organizations that can be called wind industries have significantly decreased due to the widespread cut in foreign aid, their network is still intact. The UML has been agile in terms of mobilizing financial resources since 1990. In addition, resource-rich metropolitan cities like Kathmandu and Birgunj have come under the sway of that pragmatic party.

Sharma Oli's only challenge is that apart from him, there is no other face left in the UML that can be sold across the country. If he is unable to somehow survive the upcoming elections, it will not take long for the UML to fall apart. The ethnic leader Sharma Oli, who has emerged stronger and stronger from some difficult ordeals in his personal and political life, is entering the competition to play on the ice of voter absolutism at a crucial juncture in his life.

The greed to write his name in history is stronger than the attraction of power and authority. In Oli's base area of ​​Jhapa, his main electoral rival Shah has nothing to lose, if he wins, he will be able to wear the crown of defeating the anti-hero. If Sharma Oli wins, what he will get is continuity, if he loses, at most, immediate discussion in the international media.

Gagan Thapa, who arrived at the last minute on the passenger bus of the election that started rolling after the autumn explosion, is going to participate in the first difficult test of his political life this time. After 2006 and before, he always traveled in a comfortable seat in the front, even if it was in a hurry. Thapa, who was unanimously elected president of the Congress at a controversial special general convention, has a four-star flag, but the crowd of workers who waved it has dispersed.

The old ‘tree’ of his party has barely stood upright due to the continuous axe blows from the progressives in front, the conservatives from behind, the socialists from the left and the marketers from the right. The ‘tree’, whose branches were torn off during the Madhesh uprisings of 2007 and 2008, has not yet been able to sprout new leaves even in its base area due to the political shortsightedness of the then president Sushil Koirala in 2015.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the unofficial leader of the NCP, who has been emboldened by the weaknesses of his competitors since 2008 rather than his financial resources, organizational capacity, and election preparations, is perhaps unable to realistically assess the internal situation and geopolitical equation after 2015.

It is one thing to present candidates from culturally marginalized, socially ostracized, politically marginalized, and religious minorities in the election competition, but Dahal no longer has the magical power to make them victorious. Since merging his political platform with the UML, the Prachanda politicians of the Ekta era have now reached a point where they have to protect their existence by wearing the name of Ram. It is natural that even the Madhesh-dependent parties, which are in a position to compete in their individual capacities despite being party candidates, do not show much enthusiasm for the election.

Sponsored enthusiasm

Periodic elections in the parliamentary system renew the legitimacy of the existing political balance in the country. If the party equation within the House is disrupted, a situation arises where mid-term elections are necessary. Incumbent executives sometimes call for snap elections due to their desire to restore legitimacy due to their increased popularity or acceptance.

The declared objective of the upcoming snap elections may be to ‘preserve the constitutional order’. At the same time, since the legitimacy of the autumn explosion cannot be established by declaring ‘good governance martyrs’ alone, the underlying objective of the elections should also be to ensure the displacement of stale faces from national politics and the entry of fresh personalities through a fresh mandate through constitutional means.

Perhaps that is why on the one hand, there is suspicion among established politicians, while on the other hand, novices seem to be excited. If they miss the opportunity, they may make mistakes. Due to fear and greed, some ministers of the unconstitutional government have also entered the electoral competition arena, leaving their previously declared main responsibility – to conduct a fair election on the specified date – at the last moment.

Although issues such as corruption control, transformation of the governance system, and generational change among politicians in power have been raised to give immediate post-facto legitimacy to the Green Belt rebellion, it is apparent that some of the young people who became the factors that caused the Sharad explosion lack political understanding and restraint. The novice politicians may not have the self-confidence, moral strength, and organizational capacity to control the excitement spread by (un)social media without being able to transform slogans into policies.

The hero of the Green Belt rebellion may be able to encourage Madhesi voters for self-government from the stage of Janakpur, but he cannot recognize the mismatch between the aspirations of subordinate communities for autonomy and the prevailing situation of dominance in the majority ethnic power. The fact that the new generation of Madhesh is frustrated is no longer a matter of debate, and the political strategists who have made him a pawn in Janakpur are probably unaware of the situation that could arise if they are trapped in promises that cannot be fulfilled and made disappointed.

The arbitrariness of the market in basic services like education and health, widespread unemployment, lack of self-employment opportunities, structural stability of corruption, and the situation where the condition of the common people does not change even after a change of leadership, instead of turning the anger of the young people who are fed up with the situation into energy for structural change, the politics of favoritism that tends to spread assurances that all problems will be solved if adults are placed in the positions occupied by the elderly, will create a vicious cycle of expectations and disillusionment.

Ethnic nationalism, naked majoritarianism, narrow-mindedness, xenophobia, patriotism, false pride, illusion of past grandeur, competitive populism, the minority mood of the majority, and the distrust of the common people in the future have not yet been seen in any of the leaders of the green belt rebellion in a realistic manner. What is new about the political representatives of the urban youth rebels in the crowd of politicians who talk about abstract things like democracy and development? No one knows anything yet.

It is ironic that the new politicians did not even have an ideology, let alone a reliable agenda. Shah has promised to bring the people of Madhesh to a state where they can visit Pashupatinath and Swayambhu instead of demanding rights in Kathmandu. Perhaps his imagination has only reached that far. Since co-governance in the union and self-governance in the provinces are the basic principles of federalism, he cannot rule out the possibility that some ‘Madheshites from Madhesh’ may come to claim the right to govern the capital.

But the problem is not in anger, but in the ‘politics of expectations’ linked to dissatisfaction. The voices of rebellion of the urban youth were often heard like this – ‘Remove all the leaders, change the system, end corruption at once.’ Although such provocative slogans were emotionally powerful, they were not in line with the social, cultural, political, governance and administrative realities of the country. The desire for change presented without understanding or ignoring the limitations such as the constitution, federal structure, multi-party system and weak state capacity can be explained by borrowing two expressions from the vocabulary of investors – irrational exuberance and sponsored enthusiasm.

The enthusiasm of investors to push asset prices above their fundamental potential is irrational exuberance, which often creates powerless but attractive bubbles in the market. The term, used by American economist Alan Greenspan to describe the unnatural frenzy of the market, has now become relevant to understanding the ‘bubbles’ of Nepali politics.

Vested interests increase asset valuations by spreading advertising, misinformation, misinformation, and inflammatory information in a haphazard manner and then exit with the return on their investment. (Non-)social media, which can create a large information bubble at relatively low cost, have low entry barriers, and can be exited without any expense, has made it easier for those who want to create sponsored excitement even in politics.

Two types of ideas associated with the concept of incited propaganda are heating up the political market. According to the activists of the Haritpiit rebellion, the Sharad explosion, which caused the most human and material damage in the history of Nepali politics in two days, was entirely due to their creative minds and the arrogant reactions of the ruling politicians. The power of coincidence cannot be ignored, but given the nature and extent of the violence and destruction, it is difficult to believe the claim that the 36-hour upheaval was spontaneous, purposeless and thoughtless.

It is unlikely that such a level of destruction, which required extensive preparation, could have been possible without the initiative of some disciplined, secret and organized force. So, was the purpose of the entire sponsorship only to gain the respect of Sher Bahadur Deuba, who was outside the government, and to maintain the old system through new elections? The question of assigning responsibility to history must also be raised. The controversy over foreign ‘intervention’ has also become a prisoner of the practice of shedding prejudice.

It is not unusual for the US to seek to tighten its traditional grip on Nepal in a South Asia where instability is increasing. The promoters of Indian interests may be anxious to expand their influence to keep the growing Chinese power and presence in Nepal under control.

For the Chinese, protecting their financial investments and promoting diplomatic credibility may be the main issue. They would have to identify their friendly forces and make bets. Moreover, since the ‘Jayatu Sanskritam’ movement, no movement, coup or election in Nepal has been completely free from the influence of foreign aid, and the flow of foreign investment may have decreased the enthusiasm of the players.

Secular rituals

The slums are not heated by the upcoming parliamentary elections, but there is a sense of calm in the forums of public debate. Since journalism is also a kind of politics, the impartiality of an active journalist is an expression of ideals rather than reality. However, it seems surprising that even intellectuals, who should increase understanding about controversial political issues instead of dividing into pros and cons, hesitate to distinguish between black and white.

It is clear that the upcoming elections will not bring any fundamental difference in the lives of the common man. Why, then, do voters, who have been facing oppression, discrimination and harassment for decades, waste their time and queue up at the polling station? Some arguments like greed for cash and the attraction of meat and rice are explanations of the denigration of the poor by the rich, but the reality is that the richest and most powerful classes reap the greatest benefits of the election economy.

Whether periodic or accidental, the attraction of elections for the common man has been explained in the most realistic way by political anthropologist Mukulika Banerjee. General elections are not just a political process but a secular ritual similar to religious rituals, which gives the impression of Janardan to those at the bottom of society at the moment of voting.

Both candidates and voters understand the futility of their activities, but according to Professor Banerjee, voting is not a logical process that will change the world but an expression of ‘citizenship’. There are few examples of progressive changes to the status quo through election results. Handing over blank ballot papers at a polling station means the state's acceptance of the existence, rights, and identity of the common people.