Politics has become more confusing and complicated due to the series of meetings between then Prime Minister and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, who was largely responsible for causing the Gen-G rebellion, and Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, and the discussion of the restoration of the House of Representatives. Oli's provocative statements and irresponsible comments, who has been rejecting and challenging the Gen-G rebellion since the beginning, have been leading politics towards further conflict and crisis.

The fluid and confusing politics had become more complicated after the UML took an institutionally official decision and went to the Supreme Court on November 20, demanding the restoration of the dissolved House of Representatives. After 65 Congress MPs close to Deuba suddenly and dramatically went to the Supreme Court, demanding restoration like the UML, contrary to the decision of the central committee, intense political polarization has begun. 

Are Oli and Deuba challenging the Gen-G rebellion by demanding the restoration of the House of Representatives? What is Oli's strategy? Is the restoration of the House of Representatives possible? Is the restoration of the House of Representatives the policy of the Congress or the UML? Has the Congress also gone in favor of restoration after the old 'relationship' and equation was established between Deuba and Oli? Is this the dual character of the Congress or an undeclared strategy? Are Oli and Deuba still the decisive figures in Nepali politics? Complex and unanswered questions have naturally arisen. Therefore, an attempt has been made to objectively analyze the strategy of Oli and Deuba and its immediate and long-term political impact.

Oli's strategy, Deuba's agreement 

UML and Oli seem to be completely isolated in terms of the political scenario and polarization that has developed after being displaced from power due to the Gen-G rebellion. The changed political scenario seems unfavorable for UML and Oli. Collaboration with Congress seems to be more necessary than ever before to make Oli's strategy of maintaining his existence (Oli's vision and dominance in words) successful.

Therefore, it seems that Oli has now given high priority to strategic collaboration with Congress through Deuba. There is no question that Oli, a talkative and crooked player of power politics, does not understand the secret of the level, scope and density of weakness of power for Deuba. Oli had played Deuba yesterday by showing the lollipop of power after him, and it seems that he is playing today too. Deuba, who is insatiable in his thirst for power, was subservient to Oli yesterday, and it seems that he is subservient today as well. Deuba's tendency has even been sarcastically commented as 'Congress on the Oli path' and 'UMLization of Congress'. 

The reality that the restoration of the House of Representatives is not the agenda of the Congress and Deuba, but of the UML and Oli is as clear as the sun. After the restoration of the House of Representatives, Oli seems to have adopted a strategy of using the magic of power to achieve the restoration agenda and the Congress party as a shield for his political ambitions. It is like an 'open secret' that an undisclosed agreement was reached between Oli and Deuba from the series of meetings that began after he went with his wife Radhika Shakya on 19th Mangsir to meet Deuba, who returned from Singapore.

Four days after that meeting, on 23rd Mangsir, 8 MPs close to him went to the Supreme Court on Deuba's instructions, demanding the restoration of the House of Representatives. The day after meeting Deuba for the second time on 7th Poush with General Secretary Shankar Pokharel, an additional 57 MPs filed a supplementary writ in the Supreme Court on Tuesday, confirming this reality. Oli seems to have been initially successful in his strategy of using Deuba to achieve his own interests. What greater misfortune could there be for the Congress? 

Another of Oli's immediate interests is the upcoming National Assembly elections. It seems that he has given special priority to his relationship with Deuba and cooperation with the Congress, concluding that 'an alliance with the Congress is inevitable' since he will lose if he fights alone. But how disgusting and low-level game did Oli play in Madhesh Province to form a government under the leadership of the UML by betraying the Congress, which was his partner in power until Bhadra 24? If he cooperates or compromises without accepting this reality, the Congress is sure to be betrayed again.

Congress or Deuba's strategy?

The decision to participate in the House of Representatives elections to be held on Falgun 21 was made in the longest 49-day central committee meeting in the history of the Congress. Despite calling the dissolution of the House of Representatives unconstitutional, the decision to participate in the elections was positive, accepting the political reality of the Gen-G rebellion. But after Deuba and the establishment faction stood in favor of restoration, contrary to the decision of the central committee, the Congress has not only split, but serious questions have been raised about the decision of the Congress and Deuba's intentions.

Shekhar Koirala, who is considered a leader of the other party, has not signed the writ petition for reinstatement. But after Koirala's trusted MPs signed it, questions have also been raised about his perspective. But leaders and MPs close to General Secretary Gagan Thapa, including Arjun Narsingh KC, Bishwaprakash Sharma, Pradeep Poudel, have been firmly taking a stance and stance in favor of elections, not reinstatement. 

Does the central committee decide the policy of the Congress or does Deuba? Is this the policy of the Congress or Deuba's strategy? Is Deuba still running the Congress from behind the scenes? Why is Deuba, who is said to have retired from politics unannounced after giving the responsibility of acting Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka to the acting president after the Gen-G rebellion, still manipulating power from behind the scenes? After the meeting of the performance committee last Wednesday, General Secretary Thapa commented to the media that 

'Khadka is only the acting president in name and all the powers are vested in Deuba', this reality has been further confirmed.

Deuba's tendency to be power-hungry and subservient to Oli has led to the risk of completely destroying the remaining identity and reputation of the Congress. This tendency, like a python, insatiable for the excess hunger and indulgence of power, has been holding the Congress hostage in the power vacuum for a long time.

Now the time has come to free the Congress from this hostage and bondage. The Congress is neither a Shaktipeeth that worships power and power 24/7 nor an illegal ashram for power brokers. The right time has come to free the Congress from the illegal and unwanted occupation of the 'noble' ranks who have been in the leadership for a long time and have failed to deliver despite getting opportunities repeatedly. 

After the success of the Gen-G rebellion, an interim government was formed and the House of Representatives was dissolved on the government's recommendation. Will the Congress accept the Gen-G rebellion or not? Will the current problem be solved without accepting the reality of the Gen-G rebellion? As the largest and most democratic party in the dissolved House of Representatives, shouldn't the Congress play a leading role in resolving the current crisis? The central committee has also decided to 'play a leading role in resolving the current political crisis'. But as per that decision, why hasn't it played a leading role?

Not restoration, but elections to the House of Representatives 

First of all, Oli and Deuba should accept the reality that an interim government was formed after the Gen-G rebellion was successful and the House of Representatives was dissolved on the recommendation of the interim government. The demand for the restoration of the House of Representatives, on the one hand, devalues ​​and rejects the Gen-G rebellion, and on the other hand, is certain to lead to further political conflict. The current need is not the restoration of the House of Representatives.

There is no better option than elections to protect the democratic republic established through the historic people's movement and the constitution formed through the Constituent Assembly. If elections are not held on Falgun 21, a more serious political and constitutional crisis is certain to arise. It is necessary to seriously assimilate such a bitter and risky reality. 

The political reality after the Gen-G rebellion is that the dissolved House of Representatives has lost both its legitimacy and legitimacy. The mandate of the 2082 rebellion is fresher and broader than the 2079 referendum. The House of Representatives existed yesterday and there was a 'strong' government of the Congress-UML. But if the House of Representatives could not provide a stable government, it was also disappointing from the perspective of policymaking.

The government also failed to deliver according to the people's sentiments. Therefore, the Gen-G rebellion was against the government and was against misrule, corruption, the government's irresponsible attitude, and the ban on social media. The Gen-G rebellion occurred yesterday because of Oli's arrogance and Deuba's inaction. Even today, they are causing another accident because of their power-oriented tendencies.

In fact, Oli, who has repeatedly dissolved the House of Representatives against the constitution, does not even have the moral right to demand its reinstatement. As a democratic party that has led three people's movements, does the Congress not have to accept the people's opinion and rebellion? The demand for the restoration of the House of Representatives for the Congress is not suitable from both political and moral points of view. The strategy of restoring the House of Representatives is not suitable from the point of view of the political interests of the Congress-UML itself. Therefore, the Congress and the UML must unconditionally go to the people for a fresh mandate and contribute to bringing the constitution on the right path. Otherwise, even though they played a leading role in drafting the constitution through the Constituent Assembly, history and future generations will not forgive the Congress-UML.

Collaboration with democrats or communists?

The time has come to review the power collaboration and electoral alliance with communist parties and decide on future policies and strategies. Such collaboration or alliance was not natural, principled and principled. It was inconsistent from a policy point of view and also failed from a strategic point of view.

Both Oli and Prachanda gained maximum political and strategic benefits from the collaboration and alliance with the Congress. But on the contrary, the Congress had to pay a huge political price. The people's strong disagreement and widespread dissatisfaction were seen with the electoral alliance with the former Maoists and the government with the UML. Such a failed and suicidal strategy should be abandoned, cooperation and alliance with the Communist Party should be broken and cooperation with democratic parties should be initiated. The sooner the Congress is freed from the trap of UML in the name of cooperation and alliance, the sooner it will be revived. This is in the interest of the country and the interest of the Congress. 

Perhaps by assimilating the same reality, last year's Mahasamiti meeting has already decided not to ally with any party in the elections as per the proposal of General Secretary Thapa. According to the same decision, the Congress should not ally with any party in the upcoming House of Representatives elections.

It should go to the people on the basis of its own principles, policies and manifesto. Ironically, the Congress has not only weakened organizationally, but also the confidence of its leaders and workers seems to have weakened. Elections are a great sacrifice to raise the morale of leaders and workers and gain the trust of the people. Therefore, an appropriate opportunity has come to inspire the party and increase the confidence of leaders and workers through elections. 

The accusation that the Congress is also becoming like a communist after collaborating with the communists and engaging in improper power transactions has been leveled for a long time. The intellectual community and activists have been commenting that such collaboration and power sharing have also fragmented the democratic identity, character and culture of the Congress.

These accusations and comments are not baseless. The Congress should have been like the Congress and like a communist. There should have been a meaning and justification for being a different party. Winning or losing in the elections is a matter of separate debate. But the Congress needs to adopt a strategy to restore its original democratic principles, culture, identity and character and win the trust of the people.

Thapa and Sharma's ordeal 

After the Gen-G rebellion, General Secretaries Gagan Thapa and Bishwaprakash Sharma have proposed the reorganization, transformation and purification of the Congress with an apology after introspection, self-reflection and self-criticism. Which is not only positive, but inevitable. यही पुस २६ देखि २८ सम्म हुने १५औं महाधिवेशनबाट नेतृत्व परिवर्तन हुने भएकाले थापा र शर्माले निर्णायक र परिणाममुखी संघर्ष गर्नुपर्ने घडी आएको छ । यद्यपि मिति घोषणा गरिए पनि निर्धारित समयमा महाधिवेशन नगर्न देउवा, संस्थापन पक्ष र बहुचर्चित ‘सात भाइ’ बाट निरन्तर विलम्ब, अवरोध र षड्यन्त्र हुँदै आएको छ । यस्तो अवरोध र षड्यन्त्रका कारणले अन्योलता र अनिश्चितता कायमै छ ।

जेन–जी विद्रोहपछिको प्रतिकूल अवस्थामा केही समय कार्यवाहक दिएर शक्ति सञ्चय गरी अनुकूल समयमा पुनः कार्यकारी भूमिकामा फर्कने देउवाको रणनीति थियो । देउवाको दृष्टि र विश्लेषणमा अहिले केवल शक्ति सञ्चय मात्रै होइन, शक्ति आर्जनसमेत गरेका कारणले पुनः सक्रिय भूमिकामा फर्किने निष्कर्षमा पुगेको देखिन्छ ।

ओलीसँग धाराबाहिक संवाद, पार्टीका नेता–कार्यकर्तासँग बैठक तथा शीतलनिवासको बैठकमा देउवाको उपस्थिति र प्रतिनिधिसभा पुनःस्थापनाको पक्षमा अर्थपूर्ण अभिव्यक्तिले उक्त रहस्यको पुष्टि भएको छ । एकातिर पार्टीको महाधिवेशन समयमा गर्न अवरोध सिर्जना गर्ने अर्कोतिर केन्द्रीय समितिको निर्णयविपरीत प्रतिनिधिसभा पुनःस्थापनाको पक्षमा उभिने । देउवा र संस्थापन पक्षको रणनीति र नियतको बारेमा अब पनि कसैलाई भ्रम बाँकी छ र ?

यदि युवा पुस्ताको भावनाअनुसार पुस्तान्तरणसहितको त्यस्तो नेतृत्व स्थापित भएन भने यथास्थितिमा कांग्रेसको भविष्य अन्धकार मात्रै होइन, औचित्यसमेत नरहन सक्छ । कांग्रेस पुनर्गठन र रूपान्तरणका लागि निर्धारित समयमै महाधिवेशन र पुस्तान्तरणसहितको भिजनरी नेतृत्व पहिलो र अनिवार्य सर्त हो । जनता र पार्टीका कार्यकर्ता विशेषगरी युवा पुस्ताको यही भावनालाई आत्मसात् गर्दै थापाले विगत १४औं महाधिवेशनमा नेतृत्व परिवर्तन गर्ने प्रयास गरे । तर आफू महामन्त्री निर्वाचित भए पनि मूल नेतृत्व परिवर्तन गर्न सफल भएनन् । संसदीय दलको निर्वाचनमा पनि थापाले देउवालाई चुनौती दिए । तर फेरि पनि असफल भए ।

थापाले जस्तै अर्का महामन्त्री शर्माले पनि विगत लामो समयदेखि पुनर्गठन, रूपान्तरण र नेतृत्व हस्तान्तरणको वकालत गर्दै आइरहेका छन् । यदि उनीहरूको पहल र प्रस्तावअनुसार कांग्रेसमा नेतृत्व परिवर्तन र रूपान्तरण भएको भए सम्भवतः भदौ २३–२४ को दुर्घटना हुने थिएन ।

उनीहरूले पहल र प्रयास नगरेका होइनन् । तर सार्थक र परिणाममुखी भएनन् । समान दृष्टिकोण र एजेन्डा भएका थापा र शर्माले पुस्तान्तरणसहित नेतृत्व परिवर्तन गरी पुनर्गठन र रूपान्तरणको प्रस्ताव र पहल गरिरहेका छन् । उक्त प्रस्ताव र पहललाई पुराना पुस्ताका अर्जुननरसिंह केसी, फर्मुल्ला मन्सुर, शुक्रराज शर्मा, मधु आचार्य, अमरसिंह पुन, तारामान गुरुङ, सुरेन्द्र चौधरी, जनक गिरीलगायतका नेताहरूले साथ दिइरहेका छन् । यसैगरी प्रदीप पौडेल, बहादुरसिंह लामा, गुरुराज घिमिरे, देवराज चालिसे, प्रतिमा गौतम, प्रकाश स्नेही, अजयबाबु शिवाकोटी, मुक्ताकुमारी यादवलगायतका जनाधार भएका युवा पुस्ताका लोकप्रिय नेताहरू थापा र शर्माको साथमा छन् । 

थापा र शर्मा केवल लोकप्रिय मात्रै छैनन्, जनताको आशा र भरोसा नै उनीहरू भएको वास्तविकता सार्वजनिक सञ्चारमाध्यम र सामाजिक सञ्जालमा जनता र कार्यकर्ताको भावना र अभिव्यक्तिबाट पनि पुष्टि भइसकेको छ । तर १५औं महाधिवेशन अन्तिम अवसर हो भने थापा र शर्माका लागि अन्तिम परीक्षा हो ।