At a diplomatic gathering last week, the organizer introduced him as “one of the few security experts” to diplomats from Western and Asian countries. The discussion that followed turned to the election prospects. The question arose – will the upcoming election be held on the stated date? What is the Congress’s desire?

Will the Congress, among the main parties, request to postpone the election by a month or a half? Will the UML go to the election? It seems as if some of the Gen-G are trying to stir up trouble and disrupt the election, right?

No one said anything about any group or individual who is claiming to challenge the system and who can do so. The reasons why the above questions were raised became clear during the discussion. But the questions are being repeated by people from the civil service administration of the Nepal government to civil society and scholars. Therefore, this article will attempt to analyze the specific basis for the election.

Commentary and intention that there will be no election

When synthesizing the discussions heard on the streets, in the media, and at banquets, mainly three types of people say that there will be no election on the scheduled date. First, the remaining conservative factions, except for the RPP, who did not want change when the Maoists were brought into the peace process or even before that, i.e. since 2046 and did not like the current system at all.

The group, which is mainly in the pain of being deprived of the benefits it has been getting from being around the ‘feudal lords’ protected by the monarchy in an undemocratic system, or of losing the benefits it has been enjoying for years, had also said during yesterday’s elections that the announced elections would not take place. This time too, a campaign has been launched by them to mislead the general public and spread such a message.

It is the old routine of that group to make demands that have become irrelevant in the current situation and say ‘we will not allow elections to be held’ in the language of ‘otherwise’, to go to the government and security agencies to make themselves seem relevant, and to make their photos and interests public, and to claim that their non-systemic demands have been recognized.

The fact that some conservative scholars of the same class, who use social capital, have also entered into public debates based on conspiracy theories in the name of experience or by weaving horrifying stories about the security situation and citing public psychology is also a continuation of the situation since 2046.

Such efforts and contexts are often raised in formal and informal conversations with various quotes. It should not be forgotten that this group, which has been around the government for a long time and understands internal and external attitudes and is adept at using cliché language, is mostly a con artist and seems to be obsessed with a kind of rumor by presenting its own desires in a melodious manner.

Second, the establishment party of UML. Which is not ready to accept that it has lost legitimacy due to the Gen-G rebellion, has been displaced from power, and has formed a government under the leadership of Sushila Karki with the main mandate of holding a general election within 6 months. Considering itself to be the messiah of democracy, even if we go to the election, rather than creating an environment for the election, the UML leadership is eager to disrupt it. If the election is not held on time, not only will the current government's credibility and capacity, but also its legitimacy will be lost.

The court is also happy that the parliament can be restored to save the nation from the political uncertainty, confusion and possible chaos that that situation may cause. Even after weeks of discussions, the Congress has officially concluded that there is no other option but to hold elections, and accordingly, it is understood that it has made an internal and institutional decision to go for general elections.

Nevertheless, some Congress members (who are not liked by the current public, have no influence in the organization, have only been able to climb the political ladder by holding the tail of the establishment or have come into or enjoyed the politics of inheritance) seem eager to support the UML establishment, which is in the camp of not holding elections as much as possible, by going against the party's decision to go for elections.

This situation has made it a matter of making news that the Congress and UML do not want elections. In addition, a similar negative message has also reached the general public. When news is made citing some 'leader' or group, it is normal for many, especially the general public who are not updated on politics on a daily basis, to wonder if there will be no elections.

But after the party and leadership are questioned and the movement is overthrown, the sovereign citizen must go to the election to be tested again. Again, it is unusual that there is no debate and quotation of the majority opinion within both parties, who believe that the method and path to return to parliament and government is through elections.

Third, there is a small section that takes credit for the Gen-G movement but was anonymous during the movement, which has no interest in studying the historical emergence and development of this democratic method and process. The time and limits of governments do not matter.

It has nothing to do with the principle of the rule of law. But if it does not do what it thinks or says, it threatens to scold, beat, remove, show, and retaliate. In addition, it flirts with various interest groups and makes their rhythm and charm public, and the next day it does not hesitate to say, 'I was misguided by so-and-so.'

Another group's claim that if the constitution is not amended, if the current system is not changed, if the people who want or say are not recruited, if the people in the structure are not removed, they will protest again and not allow the elections to be held has also been widely circulated on social media. As we understand politics over time, many of the youth who protested yesterday now seem to agree that establishing the reform issues they raised would be sustainable and democratic if done through a body formed through representatives.

They are also actively protesting against the ideas of the above-mentioned groups, saying that they are counterproductive. As a result, the majority of Gen-G groups that are now visible are going to the elections, registering their names in the voter list, creating an atmosphere for the elections, and whether by forming a group or joining a party, holding elections and creating an atmosphere for the best candidates to be elected from among the available ones. They also seem to be free from the trap of undemocratic commentary. The above-mentioned analysts do not even bring up such issues. There has also been no good communication.

In addressing political and security challenges, the government

In the early days of the government, Prime Minister Karki, who thought that she would not have to look at the faces of the leaders of the major parties, started the dialogue with the parties with the coordination and support of the President. In the recent phase, it is seen that she organizes and participates in individual and group discussions with the parties. Although it is not possible to meet Deuba

and Oli individually for various reasons, it is seen that representatives of the parties they have designated are participating and expressing their opinions. On the other hand, regular discussions and meetings are also being held with the Gen-G youth, who are included in various groups and are close to the political agendas of many forces and groups.

Karki himself must have experienced the difference/role between speaking or expecting from the outside as a citizen and being in a responsible position of the state. That is why his former colleagues and professional friends, well-wishers, old parties and even the Gen-G who ousted him and put him forward as the Prime Minister are not completely happy with him. But no one seems to be able to make a declared policy of ignoring and not cooperating with the elections.

It cannot be said that it is normal for anyone who envisions or expects advanced democracy to run away from the elections or try to disrupt them, or to bring disgrace to the situation. But on the contrary, some leaders/organizations of UML and UML, by threatening to ban non-Gen-G ‘old people’, seem to be united in creating a psychology and atmosphere that this government cannot ensure security, saying that this government cannot ensure security.

Government preparations 

During the Gen-G rebellion, not only were the police weapons confiscated, offices were burned, and officers were chased away, but even when other organizations were killed, there is still concern and concern about security. So far, many of the burned police offices have been rebuilt with the help of citizens.

The procurement process for purchasing necessary equipment has begun. The election strategy and tactics have been formulated and discussions have begun at the provincial level from Lumbini. After analyzing the potential challenges, a strategy has been decided to classify the constituencies into normal, sensitive and highly sensitive and prepare security personnel and other arrangements accordingly.

Accordingly, preparations are being made to recruit 'election police' by determining the number of necessary, available and additional security personnel. The decision to mobilize the army three months before the election day, which is believed to have faith and trust in the army, but amid public criticism that it became complacent during the Gen-G insurgency crisis and did not come to the rescue, is also a strong message from the government to hold elections on time, so that the general psychology and atmosphere are ensured that the elections will be free, fair and spontaneous.

The daily busyness of the head of government and ministers in meeting people from various extremist, non-systemic and anarchic groups is also focused on creating a security environment. A joint structure of the Commission, the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and all four security agencies has been formed for the conduct and management of the elections. Some of the lost weapons have now been recovered and some of the escaped prisoners have been returned, and the search for the rest has been intensified.

The Prime Minister also directed the Nepal Army to play an effective role by discussing the public's expectations regarding the security, information, and coordination of the army. It is understood that the state believes that safe, fair, and free elections are possible only through mutual coordination with all four security organs and proper advice, suggestions, and cooperation with the citizens/government.

The Prime Minister himself and, if not, through the leadership and formula of the President, are discussing with various groups of civil society, listening to everyone patiently and reflecting, and appealing for suggestions and cooperation to create an election atmosphere, which is a different and generous experience from the past.

Security challenges are false/true

Security challenges are always and everywhere. Security is mostly a psychological issue. Therefore, there is a global practice of building and mobilizing security structures, methods, strategies, and organizations. Nepal's past experience says that there are security challenges, but elections have also been held in worse and more challenging conditions.

Nepal, which could not resolve the Maoist armed conflict through military means, had held the first Constituent Assembly elections amidst destruction, pressure and oppression from rebels and armed men. In a country where villages were scattered, there was no security structure in many places at that time, it was limited to cities and the center. Rebels were everywhere except for a few districts.

The public was frightened by the debates and comments such as whether weapons were hidden or washed away in the river, or whether the main fighters were outside the cantonment. There was no cordial relationship established between the state security structure and the rebels. 

The first and second Constituent Assembly elections were held amidst the oppression of 15 defense groups such as the Young Communist League and Youth Force, which are political organizations. The context of the second election being held by a non-party government like now is another strong example. After the constitution was proclaimed, during the 2017 general elections, fear was created among the people by exploding bombs targeting various public and private companies.

Many bombs were exploded, including those targeting candidates and the general assembly. An underground group of Maoists was involved in such a conspiracy. Many other groups were also involved in intimidation. Amidst such fear, the turnout in all these elections in 2008, 2013 and 2017 was 60, 70 and 68.63 percent respectively, which is considered to be higher in terms of legitimacy than the 61.85 percent turnout in the peaceful elections of 2022. 

Now, the city-centered destruction, that too with the reconstruction of the security structure, has been completed. Investigations are being carried out into the agitation, rebellion and destruction, and most of the protesters themselves are saying that the destruction was wrong, that the election was the best option, and that they will use it for reform.

Looted weapons are being returned, escaped prisoners are being returned, and the search for the remaining weapons and escaped prisoners is being intensified. Those spreading fear as a security threat cite the reference to the Nepal Army and the Armed Police Force not cooperating with the Nepal Police during the Gen-G rebellion.

It is true that there are general questions not only about the professionalism, capacity, and accountability of those organizations, but also about their relevance. Why and how that situation happened is being investigated. But the election is both an opportunity and a compulsion for those organizations to put themselves to the test, to prove their relevance and indispensability for national security, and to use it to regain credibility by showing professional competence.

The pace at which these organizations are working and convincing the government amid internal and external questions and pressure can also be said to be the election. Looking at it this way, what is seen in the Nepali environment is that the heart is eager to hold state elections, and the election has been held. As Bhupi Sherchan said, ‘This is a country of chaos’, it is a Nepali tradition that elections do not always take place until the day of voting, but rather on the date. 

Conclusion

The work of recommending and sending the leader of one’s choice as a candidate from the district and constituency and lobbying for the leadership has already begun in the Congress with the preparations for the general convention. UML leaders are saying that parallel preparations are being made for the election and the general convention.

The newly emerged and the new ones among the old are busy in internal, bilateral and multilateral discussions and bargaining to formulate strategies and tactics to undermine the legacy of the old and dominate. Even the anarchic and ambitious groups that do not have the status in the election but want the political affairs to suit them have resorted to the strategy of threatening to ‘otherwise not allow the election’ but seeking state recognition for their issues.

Nepalese who have adopted the principle of other strong democracies as an alternative to democracy and in the background of the sacrifices made by the youth for other advanced democracies, Nepal cannot think of anything other than a people-elected parliament and government.