Dimensions of geopolitical turmoil

A common tendency of gerontologists around the world is to display an incurable tendency to blame others and sing about heroic deeds and achievements.

Mangshir 16, 2082

Subhashankar Kandel

Dimensions of geopolitical turmoil

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I had discussed the subject of ‘Kakistocracy’ in an article published last April. Although it was not expected that the explosion would happen so quickly, there was no doubt that the country would suffer its fate. The Gen-G rebellion struck ‘Kakistocracy’, ‘Kleptocracy’ and ‘Gerentocracy’ all at once like a thunderbolt. This is the biggest result of the Gen-G rebellion.

After the Gen-G rebellion, the conspiracy theory has taken over the public sphere in our entire debate. The latest rebellion is an explosion of discontent caused by the structural disorder of Nepali society in general, governmental inefficiency, economic and political misconduct, and diplomatic incompetence. Some are also calling it controlled destruction. The addition of the preposition ‘but’ to the comments of every party and individual has become the most accepted common commentary at this time. At a time when not only Nepal but the entire world is going through the pain of other-mindedness within the context of the unprecedented opportunities and challenges created by the latest dimension of information technology, the stale belching of our ruling parties and their leaders is nothing new. The common tendency of old regimes around the world is to display the incurable tendency of blaming others and singing the songs of heroism and glory. ‘Kakistocracy’ (rule by incompetent and corrupt leadership) is a deadly weapon for corrupt governance and style, conspiracy theories and the rhetoric of protecting nationalism and religion and culture. In ‘kleptocracy’, corrupt politicians secretly enrich themselves outside the rule of law, through commissions, bribes and special privileges from lobbyists and corporations, or they simply direct state funds to themselves and their allies (Kandel, Kantipur, 2082 Baisakh). This was the rebellion of this dire and sinister situation, the anger of the youth.

Although the rebellion is not a ‘guarantee’ that positive change will always be brought about, ours is a more advanced state. The unprecedented rebellion in Nepali history and the way the subsequent transition period was managed are spreading the seeds of multiple complications. It is during such a crisis that the ability, skill and maturity of leadership are displayed. But unfortunately, it must be said that Nepal got a ‘street populist’ who curses all kinds of leadership in return for getting leadership. It is truly ironic that the cabinet led by Sushila Karki is not only confused by the difference between the applause of the streets and the crisis of power, but also that there is no sign of a family member of the political legacy. The question she was raising about the power and the ruler should at least be kept in mind. Is there any difference between Karki's style of asking whose face he wants to see from the seat of the Prime Minister and his predecessor Oli's indignation that he once said to his colleague, 'I would rather pay my respects if he died than look at the faces of Prachanda-Nepal', 'I would rinse my mouth'? There is an even more amusing similarity – in response to the curiosity of why he said that, she said – 'Where did I say that? The press spread negative things.' The Gen-G rebellion was certainly not looking for another old woman as Oli's carbon copy.

The role of governments

Strangely, waves of global color revolutions are redefining the role of governments and national economies there, demonstrating the true extent and impact of international economic globalization. Meanwhile, the restructuring of financial institutions has become a matter of international politics between governments. From Detroit to Paris, governments are calling for action against tax havens while taking steps to protect or restructure key national industries. In such a time of global competition and trends, Nepal, which has become a geopolitically precise magnetic pole, is more than an investment for them, which will drain the country further, draining it of funds for intelligence gathering and conspiracy strategies. The expression of this undertaking is the formation of a multi-faceted party, and for that, the struggle to control the political system through the delirium of apolitical populism by a multi-colored cast of characters and tendencies.

The situation facing the Sushila government is even more complicated than the facts and circumstances that the Oli government ignored and the unthinkable accident occurred. In this context, a historic correspondence between China and India still carries a meaningful message for today. In a letter discussed in the first volume of Nepal-India-China Relations, Documents (1947-2005), Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s information given by his ambassador to Nepal to Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai seems interestingly useful at this time. As Nehru mentioned in the letter, he has been asked to take into account the relationship between Nepal and the US and the geopolitical situation of Nepal during the Cold War and the tension in Sino-Indian relations. Perhaps similar consultations must be going on between Beijing and Delhi regarding Kathmandu at this time as well.

What kind of whirlwind?

It is necessary to understand how neighboring India views the participation of its northern neighbor in Nepal and Nepal. ‘Major projects have started in Pakistan, the Bay of Bengal and the countries of the Indian Ocean (Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh and Myanmar). China is also building a strategic Himalayan corridor through Nepal. The total investment in all BRI projects in South Asia (mostly in the form of various types of loans) has now approached US$ 100 billion. Apart from the BRI, China has made a major entry into the South Asian stock market and has also started to get involved in the internal politics of its neighbors. The Mahinda Rajapaksa regime in Sri Lanka, the unification and dissolution of the Communist Party in Nepal, and the establishment of military bases in Pakistan and Myanmar are all clear examples of China’s support for the political role. China has not hesitated to use submarines for military purposes by docking them in ports built in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which clearly indicates that its infrastructure projects are not without strategic design. On the cultural front, China has also left no stone unturned through projects promoting Buddhism, Chinese language, Confucius Institutes, and technical (engineering and medical) education (SD Muni, South Asian Discussion Paper: 2020).

In an environment where such understanding has become the language of the streets of major Indian cities in the last five years, if we recall the US-India defense agreement and cooperation, Washington and New Delhi have stood together on most fronts except trade. Moreover, India is increasingly being heard to be suspicious of China. ‘India views China’s South Asian push as an encroachment on its important strategic space. China’s strong presence on India’s periphery will limit India’s role in Asia and the world and—given the unresolved border with China and areas of competition and rivalry in Asia—will continue to hang a ‘Damocles’ sword over internal stability and regional security. This has been expressed in various ways by the government at different times (Muni, ibid).’

India sees China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ as an attempt to encircle its sphere of influence. To stop this, the Modi government has made SAARC almost dead by prioritizing alternative ‘connectivity’ projects such as Sagar, Mausam Project and ‘BBIN’. Although the obvious reason for this is Pakistan, Nepal has not been able to realize that it is also due to the analysis that Beijing has reached the navel of SAARC. In such a sensitive environment, the Sushila government, which was elected with the sole agenda of managing the transition, seems like a crow in the fog. New Delhi must be struggling with how to maintain balance in a situation where Western powers are increasingly agitated and China is increasingly suspicious of Karki's superficial position.

Nepal's immense hydropower potential has also put it on the radar of American foreign policy. Since the US is closely monitoring the geostrategic impact of energy resources, the Western media is doing its best to drag Nepal into the Brahmaputra High Dam and power projects.

Taking advantage of the opportunity, various tendencies seeking to bake the bread of political power have thrown off their traditional masks and taken to the streets. To some extent, those who are struggling to breathe without 'Maoism' are running naked in the enterprise of grabbing the scattered pieces of bread in the pan of power without even uttering the word Marxism. The rise of apolitical populist antics by suppressing the so-called old parties is taking away the respect of Nepali political society on the world stage. Moreover, it is clear that the attempt to confine politics to a certain generation is nothing more than a malicious intention to become someone's pawn and enjoy power rather than solving the historical challenge of solving the structural crisis of Nepali society. In this vein, it would be appropriate to understand that it is a terrible danger that the characters who have been shouting from the feet to the top of the Nepali ruling elite for years are busy spreading political pollution to further disrupt the situation. If anyone has committed many times more crimes than the surface political characters in corruption, misrule and state exploitation, is it not clear that it is the bureaucrats who have taken over the country's judiciary, administration and security apparatus?

Benefit of the doubt 

In the context of the recent US presidential election, Jeff Bezos, the owner of the Washington Post, had said in the context of instructing not to ‘endorse’ any presidential candidate – ‘Just as in elections, it is not enough to have electronic voting machines that work properly, but generally we must also have faith that they have worked correctly, the same applies to our media (magazines).’ Sushila Karki’s government should not only do everything perfectly, but also have faith that it is working in that way. Is the Karki cabinet and the related machinery giving such a hint? What does the government formed by the viral ‘Nepokids’ getting caught up in the same nepotism indicate?

The debate about whether political governance and administration should be done by familiar people or by relatively skilled, capable, qualified and experienced people is a very old one. Shouldn’t this government provide satisfactory answers to the questions raised every day and create a generally trustworthy environment? Shouldn't Prime Minister Karki make his views public about the revelation that the massacre of Bhadra 23 was a massacre on the morning of 24th, but that context was forgotten after 27th, and that he accepted the post of Prime Minister after flattery on the streets while structures across the country including Singha Durbar were burning? If someone raises questions saying that it was not at all appropriate for him to speak loudly about his family, politics and professional life, how can he be said otherwise? Just as Oli is not even a child, but considers himself Bhim Malla even when he reaches Goondu, similarly, isn't it the same for the interim government's apparatus to perform a farce like an angel who has descended from heaven to solve the crisis?

It is common knowledge that geopolitical rivalry is threatening to clash in the Gen-G rebellion and the situation that has arisen. If any kind of transitional jugaad is being done at this time, it is automatically clear that compromises and reconciliations will naturally work there due to the background reasons. As soon as this reality is assimilated, Sushila's government can return to the political limelight. Otherwise, Sushila's exit is certain, but the question is in what form. This is the second time since 2062-63. The first experiment was Khilraj Regmi's cabinet, which did not have to be disgraced because it assimilated its birth and background in a realistic manner. Just as Prachanda formally introduced the Khilraj issue from the Hetauda General Convention, similarly, in an environment where Prachanda himself has already given a clear signal from Panchakanya in Nuwakot that the Falgun elections will be postponed, there is no alternative to being committed to not delaying it any longer.

Subhashankar

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