The superpower United States imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on imports from India in April, much higher than on the same goods from Vietnam and Sri Lanka. It then announced an additional 25 percent tariff increase as a penalty on July 30, 2025.

The tariffs were imposed on the Russian Federation for profiting from crude oil purchases and supporting Russia in the Ukraine war. On August 27, just days before the start of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, it imposed additional tariffs on Indian imports, bringing the tariff to 50 percent.

According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), due to these tariffs, India's current export trade with the US of $86.5 billion is expected to fall to $50 billion in 2026 within a year.

 In particular, Indian exports of goods such as textiles, precious minerals (gems), jewelry, prawns, carpets will decline by 70 percent, and millions of working class people, who are connected to the production and distribution process of these goods, will have to wash their hands of work. Especially since more than 50 percent of the total Indian textile production and exports are exported to the US, the problem of making ends meet for farmers in the states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana, who are associated with the cotton and textile industry, is likely to become serious (August 27, 2025, Trump's India Tariffs Take Effect, Al Jazeera).

  Personal management through institutional relationships

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, the unipolar dominance of the US was established. At the same time, the effectiveness of the Non-Aligned Movement also became ineffective. After that, like other countries, India also decided to join hands with the US for strategic and economic cooperation.

The team of PV Narasimha Rao and Dr. Manmohan Singh assimilated the neoliberal market economy promoted under the US leadership. Since the mid-1990s, India's trade and diplomatic relations with the US have been continuously strengthening. Although this relationship initially seemed like a unilateral relationship that India wanted, it became institutionalized nationally.

In 2011, the Barack Obama administration put forward the ‘Rebalance to Asia’ policy. The main reason for adopting that policy was the growing economic and geopolitical activity in Asia and the Pacific region. In fact, the US had decided to create a loose forum of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Japan, Australia, South Korea, India and Pakistan to balance this policy, viewing China’s rapid economic and strategic prosperity with suspicion.

In 2016, Donald Trump emerged. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi became very excited. Modi may have thought that Modi and Trump would have similar views in theoretical and ideological terms. On a closer look, there were some similarities between the two.

For example, their belief in ultranationalism and racism was visible, and there was also similarity in promoting corporate business houses. Second, they also seemed to have a common view on maintaining dominance, even if it was by adopting a policy of equal, reward, punishment, discrimination or various measures against their neighboring countries. Third, Modi openly considers himself a superhuman, while Trump, as the president of a world power, would certainly consider himself a savior of the world.

Therefore, rather than institutionalizing diplomatic or political relations between the two countries, they expanded their relations on a personal basis. After becoming the prime minister again after receiving a large number of votes for his second term, Modi reached Houston, USA in 2019.

Appearing at a huge gathering of the Indian diaspora with the slogan 'Howdy Modi', the prime minister of one country asked the Indian-American immigrants of another country to vote for Trump as the president. Similarly, when Donald Trump came to Modi's home state of Ahmedabad in 2020, he was given a grand welcome by resounding the slogan 'Namaste Trump'. It seemed that the Modi-Trump cooperation would remain immortal for generations to come.

By then, the Indo-Pacific strategy had been developed by developing the TPP created by Barack Obama. Which was also continued by the 46th President Joe Biden. The Quad was established under the leadership of the US, with Australia, Japan, and India joining it to develop it as a NATO of the East and to neutralize Chinese influence (Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States of America, February 2022). 

‘MAGA’ thesis

Donald Trump is an influential figure of right-wing populism. He wanted to remove the neoliberal market from American soil because it had weakened America. In particular, he believed that America was becoming weaker because China and Western Europe were winning in production and distribution.

Trump, who won the presidency in November 2016 with the popular slogan of Make America Great Again, came to the conclusion that America could not benefit from competitive marketism and should return to the old production system. At the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in 2016, he said, “Our plan is to put America first. We are for Americanism, not globalism.”

If our politicians don't put America first, why do other countries respect America?' He raised the question. In 2017, as President, he addressed the United Nations General Assembly, saying, 'The United States wants to present itself today as a nation-state rather than through international organizations and old economic or military alliances. I want to say as the President of the United States, just as you put your country first, America will always aim to be first in the world.' (Stephen Collins (2025/10/15), America First is Becoming First, As the President Eyes a Global Power, CNN).

The essence of these statements was based on the philosophy of promoting American nationalism, and therefore economic protectionism was adopted to achieve the set goal. In order to maintain global dominance, the United States raised tariffs on foreign imported goods and services to protect its industries and potential industries and products. President Trump himself entered the field to dismantle the neoliberal market economy established in the American regime.

His narrow-minded nationalism caused a huge division in world public opinion. Trump lost the election in 2020, but he did not accept defeat. Joe Biden, who won, basically accepted the economic issues put forward by Trump. However, it was based on state capitalism based on the Keynesian philosophy of the New Deal. As opposed to the open market economy, the increased customs duties were maintained. The New Industrial Policy (2021) was announced.

Some strategic industries were established. An infrastructure construction campaign was launched on the initiative of the state. The declared policy of encircling China remained a priority. This means that there was no fundamental difference between Trump's Republican Party and Biden's Democratic Party on economic issues. On the contrary, the Democratic Party and the Biden administration appeared to be war-loving, with the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, etc. Therefore, in the 2024 election, the two parties debated political issues, not economic ones.

For example, before the election, Trump declared that he was anti-war. Within 24 hours of taking office, he announced that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war, end the conflict between Arabs and Israelis and establish a long-term peace, and play a role in resolving war-related conflicts around the world. In fact, this declaration seemed to be Trump himself putting forward a plan to be the first in the name of America.

The ‘MAGA Think Tank Network’ was created during Trump’s first term. The American First Policy Institute (AFPI), the Heritage Foundation Center, the Center for Renewing America (CRA), the Conservative Partnership Institute (CPI), and other organizations were engaged in the game of how to theorize MAGA and make it popular worldwide.

These organizations were present at the start of Trump’s second term with some short-term and medium-term agendas, a list of global figures who would agree to cooperate, and ideological coherence. They are talking about the MAGA thesis focusing on nationalism, executive supremacy, and the restoration of culture.

The development of these three elements is sought in the interweaving of economic protectionism, anti-globalization, and narrow-minded civilization. This is not just to win elections, but to transform the American states from liberalism to narrow-mindedness (Indrajit Parmar, 25 October 2025, MAGA Thinks Me to Propitiate a Trumpism Beyond Trump, The Wire).

Political Challenge, Russian Oil, and Nobel Peace Prize

It is clear that India wants to establish itself as a superpower. For that, it has the support of population and geography. However, at least two things are needed to climb the ranks of superpowers. First, a strong national economy. Second, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. The basic structure of the Indian economy is very weak.

An economy with weak public participation (PPP) in particular cannot compete seriously at the international level. Similarly, the current structure of the United Nations has five permanent members. If India is given a permanent member, either Britain or France will have to give up their permanent membership. Therefore, not only Pakistan, but also some Western countries including the United States are using force from the navel to prevent India from becoming a permanent committee member (L. Alikhan, September 18, 2025, The Obstacle to India's Superpower Ambition, Counterpunch).

Competitor countries have many hidden weapons to prevent India from becoming a superpower. Such as imposing high customs duties on trade, restricting trade, reducing imports of goods and services made in India and restricting exports of essential goods to India, and interfering with remittances sent by Indian workers in various ways.

Some powers are even threatening to disintegrate India like the Soviet Union. Especially the northeastern states, Khalistan, Kashmir and the developed southern states, if they cannot balance their economic, geographical, cultural and religious balance, will others play on such difficulties? There seems to be a lot of speculation.

It is a theoretical belief that an independent sovereign country has the right to trade with countries that suit it. Bilateral trade between Russia and India reached $68.7 billion in 2024/25, which is considered to have increased by six times compared to 2020. In 2022, India purchased 0.2 percent of its crude oil from Russia, but now it has reached 35/40 percent (i.e. 1.63 to 1.78 million barrels per day). Two private sectors, Reliance Industries and Nyaya Energy, purchase from Russia (July 30, 2025, Economic Times).

India accused Russia of helping it impose a war on Ukraine by buying so much crude oil. But by July 2025, China had purchased 6.2 billion, India 3.1 billion, Turkey 3.1 billion, and European countries 1.3 billion euros worth of crude oil, and India protested that increasing customs duties on India alone was unfair, unverifiable, and unreasonable.

In particular, the US had encouraged India to buy Russian oil during the Biden era to stabilize the energy market. Second, European countries that are indirectly involved in the Ukraine war are buying Russian oil and gas directly or indirectly. Third, the US itself imports uranium hexafluoride, palladium, fertilizers, and chemicals from Russia in large quantities (Ramesh Thakur, The Wire, September 6, 2025).

As mentioned above, Modi was under the great illusion that he had a special personal relationship with Trump. But Trump's announcement that the ceasefire between India and Pakistan was interrupted by his telephone call was a huge blow to Modi and his administration, causing him to feel guilty. It was not surprising that Modi felt that he had lost any remaining prestige after Trump publicly invited him to the White House for talks with Pakistani General Asim Munir after the G-7 meeting. That is why India issued a statement denying US pressure on Pakistan for a ceasefire. This ended Trump's self-proclaimed desire to become a world peace ambassador and receive the Nobel Peace Prize. The world only understood about the gift of a 50 percent customs duty increase.

Trump's trade advisor Peter Nibarro accused him of crossing the border and inciting the war in Ukraine. During the non-aligned or first Cold War, India was neither a capitalist nor a communist, it was a multipolar advocate, and its basis was an independent foreign policy. Perhaps keeping in mind the same old policy or today's 'strategic independence', the Biden administration did not prevent India from buying crude oil from Russia, refining it and reselling it to its South Asian neighbors and Europe.

Similarly, India bought crude oil from Russia because it got a discount of $11 per barrel above the market price throughout 2023/24. In the current fiscal year too, it is getting a discount of $4 to $5 per barrel (MK Venue: October 25, 2025) Modi Docs Trump Confrontation Even as US 

Tariffs Hit Indian and Russian Oil is Sanctioned, The Wire). In the last 25 years, Indian political elites considered America a good partner. A pleasant destination for Indian youth and an easy and profitable country for exports. Despite promoting America's interests through the Indo-US Nuclear Deal, Indo-Pacific and Quad agreements, India's importance in front of Pakistan was seen as weak.

Modi went on 58 foreign trips from 2014 to September 25, 2025 and visited 110 countries. He visited the US the most, 10 times. But looking at it now, no one is trusting his foreign policy during his 11-year tenure. The results have shown the same.