Fabricated news is called rumour. Rumors are good or bad unconfirmed news that spread little by little or spread in an unknown manner. At a time when there is confusion in the state-society and economic politics, the speculation market is heating up. At least five types of speculation are prevalent today in Kathmandu's highly active gossip hubs.

 It is not unreasonable to assume that the unconstitutional Prime Minister Sushila Karki, who has no political support base of her own, was nominated with the blessing of an invisible power, proposed by the youth called agitators, elected from Discord's chat room, distinguished by the approval of Balendra Shah and anointed by the pen of the President after the approval of the Nepali Army.

Even if a Bhandari, Thapa or Sharma comes to replace Prime Minister Karki through the same process, it does not matter much to the common people, after all the governance will remain in the hands of the permanent power. As the usefulness of the two-day protestors called 'Zen-G' has ended for the time being, the possibility that they will be discredited one by one is not an exaggeration.

is not too much of a concern. Ambitious youths who plot to make their people ministers, seek share in development schemes, want directly elected 'Kings' or grab media attention with absurd issues like demonetisation, it would be appropriate to curb the negative tendency of demanding the blood of their innocent comrades from now on. It will be good for the state and society if the idealistic youths hit the roads again.

It is also a fact that the election of the House of Representatives on the scheduled date is becoming uncertain day by day. Unless there is a widely accepted representation of society's underlying contradictions, each election does nothing more than provide fresh legitimacy to the status quo. In such a situation, the constitution is not amended, it is torn every time. In the current situation, no matter what kind of elections are held, even the new parliament cannot go beyond the control of the so-called 'three major' parties. Even though it is the largest party in the dissolved parliament, the Nepali Congress has become a 'shadow party' or 'team B' of the CPN-UML since the 16-point conspiracy of 2015.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal made the CPN-Maoist center a lohota without bread. When and where it will be 'rolled', no one but President Dahal knows. Why do we need a new election to bring back to power the political party named UML, which is the main operating mechanism of looting and tyranny that has been in place since 2015, and if the goal is only to keep ethnic Mukhtiar Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli out of power, then as Sudan Gurung, the leader of the two-day movement, said, he will be banned from the election by accusing him of corruption. However, although Sharma Oli is a nationalist like the late Prime Minister Marichman Singh Shrestha, he is also a well-known mukhtiar of the Khasarya community with international connections.

It won't be easy to make Sharma Oli into cow husbandry like Singh Shrestha or make him 'Jai Prakash Prasad Gupta' and turn him to agricultural work. It is because the political support base of ethnic nationalism is still very strong.

It also seems logical that the House of Representatives dissolved on the recommendation of the unconstitutional Prime Minister can be reinstated by judicial declaration, after all, there is evidence that the legislature dissolved on the recommendation of the Prime Minister with a majority has been reinstated at least twice in the past by the order of the Supreme Court. The concern is that even if it is somehow restored, will the House of Representatives do it now? Perhaps the formation of an all-party government will be the first agenda after that. The

agenda may include the declaration of a Hindu nation under the pressure of vested interest groups, the constitutional recognition of the ceremonial king who is limited to a cultural role instead of a monarchy, the abolition of federalism, the end of inclusive policies and the end of the proportional system by altering the electoral system.

Such a political move is sure to be seen as an open invitation to another multilateral conflict. Writing political commentary in an ever-evolving landscape is like commentating on a hotly contested football match, where one successful 'corner kick' or a single meaningful 'penalty shoot' can change the fortunes of a football team and invalidate all previous predictions. Also, this is Nepal, no one knows what, where and how will happen here. However, the most exciting rumor in the market of rumors is the culmination of pointing out the possibility of another movement after Tihar and Chhath.

Worrying apprehension

American sociologist Robert K. Merton's theory of self-fulfilling prophecy (self-fulfilling prophecy) according to the initial misconception or belief prevalent in the society, prompts the general public to try to confirm it, and eventually it turns into reality. Listeners first doubt the rumours, after repeating it they start to think 'yes', after hearing the same thing for the third time they believe such sponsored propaganda and change their behavior accordingly and the rumor becomes reality. All of this is done so subtly that most people don't even realize they're being used.

sponsored information that prompts immediate response rather than examination and reflection (a) Social media algorithms have refined Merton's theory and turned it into a weapon for controlling human behavior on a large scale. If the fifth rumor is to be believed, then the royalist rally of 28th March 2025, organized by the United People's Movement Committee for the Restoration of Monarchy, led by the controversial businessman Durga Prasain, was the first phase of the power show.

Although anti-corruption slogans were raised for the formality, a group of urban youths called 'Zen-G' gathered at Maitighar on the morning of 8 September 2025 to demonstrate (a) resistance to social media bans. If he had done as expected, he would have taken a selfie holding up the banner, taken a photo of the policeman shaking hands, and while returning, he would have been drinking tea, coffee or something else according to his status. In the evening, those who knew how to use "VPN" would post their active activities on TikTok or Instagram and performative activism such as "We took the salary, now give the constitution", "Occupy Baluwatar", "Dalit Lives Matter" or "Enough is Enough" could be done.

Unbeknownst to the young people who joined the rally, eager to burnish their public image, by midday his 8 September 2025 demonstration had turned into a second and far more violent version of the royalists' 28 March 2025. Trained thugs dubbed infiltrators actually took over the demonstration. The use of force by the overzealous police can never be forgiven. The possibility of agent provocateurs within the security forces cannot be ruled out.

could also be outsider camouflage shooting innocent protesters. But before the investigation, the entire blame for the 'murder' of the protestors on the afternoon of 8 September 2025 can be seen as a sign of impending crisis when the parliament building, which is a symbol of sovereignty, is seen in the demonization of the police force that failed to even protect itself.

If indeed the nationwide planned arson and uncontrolled destruction seen on 8-9 September 2025 was a pre-sponsored second edition of 28 March 2025, then the possibility of a third repetition makes the blood run cold, because now due to the absence or inaction of the state mechanisms, the risk that the trained fighters divided into sides and opposition will engage in more destructive violence against each other will increase.

Prison escapees or fugitives have spread across the country. As of now, no one knows how the weapons and ammunition stolen from the police have reached the hands of the people. The third edition of March 28, 2025, which may now be held, is unlikely to be peaceful. Once again, like the Maoist armed conflict, the common people trapped in Chepuwa may be forced to live in the shadow of terror. Since the struggle of the Maoists was against the state, the society was divided into two camps at that time.

The future conflict can be multilateral. The status quo parties that have reached the morale abyss will not be able to hold public meetings for peace. Security forces such as Nepal Police who have lost their light, armed police force who seem useless and Nepali Army who have lost confidence may now lose their self-control with the slightest upheaval. Why is a scenario that leads to

state failure being envisioned? At whose instigation is such a rumor being spread? That is not yet clear. But the rational and well-informed predictions of some political pundits are hard to ignore. Like some failed countries that seem normal from the outside, if Nepal too comes under the indirect control of an organized criminal group, foreign activism or intervention cannot be stopped even if desired.

motivational use

Like a child who tries to suck the big toe during hunger, fear or stress, the nationalist intellectuals of Nepal are also busy looking for domestic-foreign conspiracies after every big event rather than introspection. Gorkhali conqueror Prithvi Narayan Shah's expansion of the kingdom may have had the support of Benares merchants, his in-laws on the Gangetic Plain, or budding Newa investors who wanted to break the monopoly of families limited to Tibetan trade, but the main impetus was his own ambition. It does not seem baseless that the resident of the East India Company gave encouragement, but Jung Bahadur killed the ruling power by giving the final blow to the Shah Darbar of Mecca.

Despite the rise of communism in China and the Cold War factors, King Tribhuvan fled to New Delhi to seek the blessings of India due to his greed to rule. Raja Mahendra's desire to rule was not weak, so he was a supporter of the West during the Cold War, and by arresting BP Koirala, who had not joined the US's anti-China activities, he assassinated the government through a military coup and became an active supporter of the Khampa Rebellion and became a beloved character of the West.

After the rapprochement between President Nixon and Chairman Mao, the usefulness of the khampas ended and King Birendra wanted to become a benign ruler of the 'zone of peace'. Baburam Bhattarai's article entitled 'New Kotparva should not be recognized', which led to the imprisonment of the publisher along with the editor of Kantipur, was clearly a planned propaganda of the Maoists. Perhaps that question will remain unanswered forever.

If you go through history, you can find the role of some foreign power through the people's movement of 1990, the Maoist uprising of 1996, the spring uprising of 2006, and the fast-track constitution of 2015. No one can argue that outsiders did not play a role in the violence and destruction in the recent 8-9 September 2025 urban uprising. Variables in algebraic equations can be controlled, but constants ultimately remain constant. For weak countries, competitive foreign intervention is a constant, the political elite of Nepal, suffering from the dual weakness of deep inferiority complex and collective self-infatuation, seeks to absolve itself of its responsibilities easily by blaming external manipulations. For the sake of

arguments, let's assume for a moment that external forces created the destruction of September 8-9. If so, who would benefit from such subversive activities? When assessing the effectiveness of a political rebellion or movement, the first question to be asked is - if the movement is successful, who will benefit the most and who will suffer the most losses? Among Nepal's two land and one sky neighbors, if riots spread inside Nepal, the biggest impact will be on India, a three-sided neighbor with open borders.

It is not credible that New Delhi's strategists would have taken such a big risk with long-term consequences for the immediate benefit of teaching a lesson to the 'three tycoons' who institutionalized India-hatred. Again, the anti-India sentiment in Nepal is so widespread that even the positive initiatives of New Delhi can be considered counterproductive. लगभग एक दशक जति राजा महेन्द्रको सैनिक शासनबाहेक काठमाडौंमा जुनसुकै सत्ता रहँदा पनि चिनियाँहरूप्रतिको सदाशयता रत्तिभर कम भएको छैन, यद्यपि पछिल्लो कालखण्डमा शर्मा ओलीले बेइजिङको रणनीतिक सहयोगी भूमिका स्वीकार गरेर नेपाललाई मित्रभन्दा पनि कृपान्वेषीमा रूपान्तरित गरेको आक्षेप आधारहीन होइन ।

भूराजनीतिक स्वार्थ रहेका देशहरूमा प्रत्यक्ष सैनिक ‘कू’, प्रायोजित सहरी विद्रोह, उक्साइएको राजनीतिक आन्दोलन वा आफ्ना रणनीतिक स्वार्थका विरोधीहरूको सहवरणजस्ता सैन्य–कूटनीतिक उपकरण प्रयोग गरेर अमेरिकाले सत्तापलट गर्ने कुरा नयाँ होइन । तर युद्धबाहेक सामान्यतया अमेरिकीहरू पनि ८–९ सेप्टेम्बर २०२५ जस्तो अनपेक्षित पार्श्वीय क्षति (कोलेटरल ड्यामेज) स्वीकार गर्ने गर्दैनन् ।

जिम्मेवार पक्षको पहिचान गर्न क्रमिक परीक्षण र निष्कासन प्रक्रिया (प्रोसेस अफ इलिमेनेसन) प्रयोग गर्दै जाने हो भने धरमर राज्यलाई आफ्नो आश्रयस्थलका रूपमा प्रयोग गर्न इच्छुक संगठित आपराधिक समूहको संलग्नता सबभन्दा विश्वसनीय लाग्दछ । परिस्थितिजन्य प्रमाण पनि त्यतैतिर इंगित गरिरहेको छ । दोस्रो विश्वयुद्धमा बमबारी हुँदासमेत राष्ट्रिय सम्पदाहरूमा सबभन्दा कम क्षति हुने सावधानी अपनाइने गरिन्थ्यो । अपराधीहरू भने त्यस्ता नैतिक हिचकिचाहटबाट मुक्त हुन्छन् ।