An interval of geopolitical chaos

Non-aligned foreign policy is an expression of public consumption. The reality is that the limited ruling elites of small countries often seek the help of foreign patrons to maintain their dominance.

भाद्र १७, २०८२

सीके लाल

An interval of geopolitical chaos

What you should know

In terms of area, more than 100 countries in the world are 'smaller' than Nepal. Based on the comparative population, Nepal is "bigger" than more than 140 countries. Even in South Asia, Nepal, which is 500 times larger than the Maldives in size and 60 times larger in terms of population, is undersized. Although it is said to be landlocked, in reality, Nepal is a country of people suffering from the 'Indian landlocked' mentality. Perhaps assuming the self-centered, self-absorbed but terrified attitude of his countrymen, the epic poet of Nepali language, Lakshmi Prasad Devkota, in his essay 'Is Nepal small?', writes firmly about the 'heart of Mother India' - 'If someone tells me that China is bigger than Nepal, I feel like laughing when I hear that an elephant is bigger than a man. I don't measure the size of a field by the size of the soil, only by its quality, condition, growth and emotional impact.'' In particular, not only the size and number, but according to all the criteria pointed out by the great poet - 'quality, condition, growth and emotional impact' - smallness is still prevalent among Nepalis.

There may be a thousand disagreements with Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, but he did not go to Tianjin to raise the Lipulek and Limpiyadhura border issue with India and China at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, for short) meeting. India is adamant about resolving the ongoing disputes with its neighbors bilaterally. Because of such theory, even though US President Donald Trump has repeated it almost 50 times, instead of accepting the claim that the India-Pakistan conflict of May 2025 was postponed due to his intervention, he is ready to suffer punitive tariffs . There is a dispute in many places about the border drawn by the East India Company between the Tibet Autonomous Region of China and independent India. These two giant neighbors with 35 percent of the world's population fight, clash and compromise, but do not allow other allies to interfere in their mutual issues. During the 1971 India-Pakistan War, the US was getting closer to China under the leadership of US President Richard Nixon and his National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger. In order to pressure India to divert its attention from the Eastern Front, the US gave diplomatically subtle hints to China to mobilize troops along the India-China border, but Beijing was not ready to do so, because the Chinese were wary that such a policy could someday backfire on China itself .

The 1962 Indo-China war, the 2017 Doklam standoff and the 2020 Galwan Gwar clash are some examples of the long-standing bilateral military-diplomatic conflict between the world's two largest nations. But the Chinese have been accepting Limpiyadhura and Lipulek areas as points of border trade with India since the 1950s. Article 8 of the Nepal-India Treaty of Peace and Friendship, 1950, clearly mentions - 'As far as the things mentioned here are concerned, this treaty has canceled all treaties, agreements and pledges between the Government of Nepal and the British Government on behalf of the Government of India.' One should be aware of the possibility that "Pandora's box" may be opened if the agreement is overturned. China has not just turned the border dispute between Nepal and India as 'bilateral'. China, which shares geographical borders with at least 14 countries, knows much more about the geopolitical aspects of border disputes as well as other multifaceted complications and the lack of a clear solution to such issues than Nepal's border experts and foreign experts.

The summit of heads of state or heads of government of different countries is not a suitable place to talk about the border dispute even informally. In a one-on-one conversation, Prime Minister Sharma Oli spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the relevance and importance of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Xi Jinping ideology. He may have pointed to the geopolitical and geoeconomic risk taken by Nepal by participating in the Chinese parade against Japan. President Xi re-informed the heads of governments of neighboring countries who came to participate in the SCO Summit about concepts such as Global Development Initiatives (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Civilization Initiatives (GCI) offered by China. Prime Minister Sharma Oli understood everything and shook his head with a smile. His expression may be interpreted as support for the concepts proposed in the statement released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. It is not unknown to the Chinese that the Nepalese people believe in the concept of 'Maunam Sammati Sanknam'.

Similarly, some analysts interpret China's strategic proposals for 'global governance', including the GDI, GSI and GCI, as a 'package of three initiatives' - accepting one leads to the other two. Yuvraj Khatiwada, who participated in the two-sided meeting, may not have been able to understand the diplomatic style of the Chinese, which should be understood by combining the expressed and the unexpressed. Therefore, he claimed that "Nepal has not supported China's GSI". A similar difference of understanding was also seen some time ago about Pokhara International Airport, which is still like a 'white elephant'. China reiterates that Pokhara Airport is under the BRI project. Nepal interprets it as a project of national pride completed with Chinese loan assistance. What kind of projects are covered under the BRI project is not clearly mentioned anywhere . Therefore, according to some BRI scholars, even if a ``toilet paper manufacturing factory'' is opened with Chinese investment in the countries connected to the project, China can interpret it as a ``BRI achievement''.

China's atmosphere

The SCO group was established in 2001 under the leadership of Russia and China to keep the Central Asian countries free from the American axis. Since then, it has been a major platform for projecting China's global ambitions, influence and power. Member states like India, Iran and Pakistan can play a role in counterbalancing China's influence, but no one dares provoke Beijing in the contemporary world to maintain the Western alternative. Nepal, which accepted the role of independent Assamese state (client state) of Britain until the 1940s, shifted its involvement from London to Washington after 1951. A non-aligned foreign policy is an expression of public consumption. The reality is that the limited ruling elites of small countries often seek the help of foreign patrons to maintain their dominance. From the 1970s until about 2008, the Chinese were the beneficiaries of American technology and investment, so Nepal did not have to choose between Washington and Beijing.

After the global economic recession of 2008, the economic crisis was deepening in the western countries of America and Europe. China, on the other hand, started to play a major role in the economic growth of the world by rapidly improving its economy. Chinese thinkers, excited by the notion that economic ability provides opportunities for leadership, succeeded in establishing the narrative that "the West is weakening, the East is rising". Since President Xi came to power in 2013, China's foreign policy has become more aggressive, global and strategic. It became clear to the Khas-Arya ruling elites who dominate Nepal's politics that they are not only trying to transform China into a country that is not only powerful, but a country that "claims world leadership" around 2014 with the formation of the second legislative parliament. The elites of Nepal, suffering from India-occupied state of mind, did not seek American assurances as before . However, due to the presence of India along with America, Japan and Australia in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) strategic platform formed under the leadership of Japan against China's growing challenge, the attention of the Nepali Congress and CPN (UML) leadership, which dominates the Second Legislative Parliament, was turned towards Beijing. After the 16-point conspiracy of 2015, the Maoist center also joined the 'mainstream', now there is almost a 'national consensus' in favor of China in Nepal. Prime Minister Sharma Oli gave geopolitical, geoeconomic and diplomatic continuity to the consensus at the SCO summit in Tianjin.

There is no reason for Nepal to disagree with NIRKYOL, which is the largest summit since the establishment of the medium-term development strategy (year 2026-2035) to strengthen local and economic cooperation, strengthen the common multipolar world view of member states through development banks and intellectual partnerships. Incidentally, 'artificial intelligence or AI' can no longer be translated into 'artificial intelligence'. Due to the ability to present artistic and emotional expressions along with elaborate language format (LLM) and strong communication skills, the 'machine man' has now moved on from 'mechanical intelligence'. For 'Artificial Intelligence' perhaps 'Kalbuddhi' can be considered a more suitable term - suitable, short, sweet and futuristic - because the word 'Kal' carries with it the sense of art and imagination as well!

Alone America

President Donald Trump is a strange political creature. The so-called "rules-based liberal global order" operated after the Second World War was established under the leadership of the Americans. Washington also used to lead the Western camp, which is considered to be a supporter of the politics of Cold War democracies and the economy that promotes the open market. From the outside, it seems that more than half of the world cannot bear the burden of policy making and leadership, but it was automatically clear that America would reap the most benefits of such economic and political dominance. 3 of the 5 permanent members of the United Nations Security Council are from the American camp. The World Bank is run by Americans while the International Monetary Fund is run by Europeans . Still the major international reserve currency, the US dollar is the world's most powerful and influential trading and  Established as a medium of exchange. Most countries, including India, China and Russia, retain the US dollar as their primary foreign currency reserve, although some countries have recently been trying to diversify . President Trump's advisers are worried about illegal immigrants keeping the American economy running. There is no telling the impact the discriminatory and politically motivated deportation of immigrants would have on America's moral leadership, benign power, and international credibility.

America's economic and military power still exceeds the combined capabilities of the second and third ranked countries, especially in terms of defense budget, global presence and technology . From the collapse of the Soviet Union to the American economic recession of 2008, an alternative worldview that could challenge the economic and political concept called the Washington Consensus was not seen on the geopolitical horizon. China has not yet been able to gather the will, courage, ability and global support base to challenge American supremacy economically, strategically and technologically. In the name of his "America First" policy, President Trump, who is about to destroy the "rules-based liberal global order" of American dominance by shaking a huge wrecking ball (wrecking ball), probably does not believe in the fighting spirit and innovation ability of Americans. 

In English, the expression 'bull in the china shop', i.e. 'bull in the porcelain shop', has a symbolic meaning - a situation in which the behavior of a clumsy, careless or defiant person in a delicate or sensitive situation causes damage, obstruction or harm . Even the withdrawal of the world's most powerful country from the world scene is causing geopolitical tremors, while President Trump is shaking the international forums by waving a bigger destructive weapon than Bhimsen's mace . Perhaps that is why, since 2001, the SCO Summit, which has been limited to formalities to show China's magnificence to the world, has been completed this time with pomp and circumstance, with some symbolic and some substantive decisions . One event does not mean that the geopolitics of the world will change, but President Xi of the host country has tried to remove the fear of 'Cold War-2' by urging the politicians who are squirming in the US-dominated world to oppose the 'Cold War mentality' at the meeting of the security group presented by Beijing as an alternative to the Western-led international order . Instead, he has called for the creation of a "more just and equitable global governance system" through an "equal and orderly multipolarization of the world". The amount of aid that Beijing is expected to provide to member states this year - 2 billion yuan ($280 million) in aid and an additional 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) to the SCO banking consortium - may not seem like much, but its symbolic importance cannot be ignored . The

problem is in the 'multipolarization' preamble. After 1989, the United States was trying to practice 'the world' world, "the majority 'world," the majority' world, referring to the decade of Datwadol Gehrupital situations rather than balance peaceful power and nbsp;. President George Walking, Partial Bush, and a-enemy's neutrality after a terrorist attack in September 11, 2008, "that our accompanying or our enemy ', a balanced agreement, balanced potentials, or nbsp;.. Then all who have 'war against terrorism, in the name of the World' is being stunned by all the in the name of all the in the name of terror: According to the concept of multipleness, the founding of the 'Laks Plus, Iran, and Egypt, India and China, and in Chinese control of South Africa, India, India and China There will be no more justice and equitable universal system 'to work, "NBSP ;. "Italian Marxist Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism Antonism (Morbid Simmas) is diagoned as intervalges (Morbid symphatms); There is no one right now outside the sick statistics of the world system and NBSP;.

सीके लाल राजनीतिक विश्लेषक लाल कान्तिपुरका नियमित स्तम्भकार हुन् । उनकाे नेपालीय हुनलाई‍‍ ..., ह्युमन राइट्स, डेमोक्रेसी एण्ड गभर्न्यान्स लगायतका पुस्तक प्रकाशित छन् । कान्तिपुरका अलवा विभिन्न प्राज्ञिक जर्नल तथा पुस्तकमा उनका लेखहरु प्रकाशित छन् ।

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