The geopolitical storm of climate change

The main reason why the current mankind is in the grip of climate change is because of the technology it has developed. The solution itself also depends on future inventions and research.

जेष्ठ २८, २०८२

डा. कृष्णप्रसाद ओली

The geopolitical storm of climate change

As the amount of carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere, it is becoming more and more difficult to stop the effects of climate change on Earth. Due to this, the global temperature of the earth has exceeded the critical limit and is causing a great crisis. For example, if the Earth's average temperature rises to 3 degrees Celsius or more, it creates a 'recurrence cycle'.

Hence again it is very difficult to reduce or reduce the effect of that cycle. Its consequences go beyond the physical impact and are more likely to disrupt the socio-economic sphere and push towards global instability and conflict. Which has an impact on political decisions and geo-politics. It is difficult to say in which direction the issue of climate change will be pushed in such a situation.

It is difficult to say with certainty how much current world geopolitics will help to control the negative effects of climate change. When such danger bells are ringing or ringing, countries alone can develop their own programs to avoid climate impacts and adopt various measures to reduce carbon emissions. It seems that international organizations should prepare to avoid possible geo-political effects when climate change is about to reach its peak.

The issue of climate change has so far been treated by world governments as a concern for future generations. Therefore, the geo-politics of climate change is looking for an opportunity to maintain a new economy, finding a market for low carbon energy and researching and developing technology to support it, ensuring access to the materials and resources needed for that, and the potential dangers of energy conversion and the economic impact of it. 

Looking at the current situation, climate change seems to have more impact than expected. For example, recent studies have warned that The IPCC target of keeping the average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius is about to be completely violated. As a result, Greenland's ice sheet is melting six times faster than in 1990.

Likewise, our Himalayas and the Third Pole are also being affected. Glaciers are melting. These and similar physical processes are irreversible. Because of this, studies have shown that the entire regional land area has changed and has been affected by the 'Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation' of the Andhra Ocean. This is a marine system that transports warm water from huge ocean currents to the northern part of the ocean, which is declining. 

This has been found to reduce ocean temperatures and carbon storage capacity, as well as have a negative impact on precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere. Thus, as the impacts of climate change worsen, climate-related geopolitics may change positively in unexpected ways. As a result, the important part of such events is the reduction of production, processing and transmission of fossil fuels and their conservation and promotion, reduction of carbon emissions and potential serious physical crises.

It is an effective cooperation and coordination to prevent the effects of climate change on a large scale that has influenced world politics. In addition, nations are responsible for reducing their carbon emissions and moving towards 'carbon neutrality'. As a result, nations will continue to do more intensive research to address climate change caused by carbon emissions.

For example, the development and expansion of technologies to remove carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere or to reduce or stop carbon emissions, investments in geo-engineering technologies that have already started, solar radiation management, etc., will be carried forward effectively.

The main reason why the current mankind is in the grip of climate change is because of the technology developed by itself. The solution itself also depends on future inventions and research. There are 2 methods seen so far to reduce carbon emissions. One is a nature-based solution and the other is an artificial method. The first includes planting trees, replanting trees, protecting wetlands, preventing desertification and replenishing ecosystems.

Artificial technologies include learning from the atmosphere to capture and store carbon, development and storage of biological energy, solar, wind, hydropower, etc. Of these, results based on nature have been shown to be the best. It also benefits both locally and internationally, by sequestering carbon from trees and assisting in both carbon mitigation and adaptation.

This method, despite absorbing and storing carbon dioxide, increases biodiversity, supports local social and economic development, and stabilizes and sustains the aquatic cycle. Conservation of wetlands also has a positive impact on the water cycle through the restoration of coastal ecosystems, increase in biological diversity as well as the creation of healthy soils.

Artificial technology is a chemical process that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and stores it in the earth, and another that burns plants and stores the emitted carbon in the soil. These technologies are mature and promising and are already being used. Geo-engineering, which involves changing the entire environment rather than reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Eg: Sun Radiation Management.

Attempts are being made to reduce the temperature by breaking up small dust particles in the sky, increasing the reflective capacity of the earth and returning the sun's heat to the sky by placing large reflective objects in 'space', in addition to reducing the temperature by changing the mixture of clouds and fog. 

Today's geopolitical situation is more about competition than cooperation. When it comes to mining, processing, using and benefiting from fossil energy, all the powers are behind it. Fossil energy is also being used for the sustainability of new energy developed so far. Although there has been some development in alternative energy, the impact of geopolitics on 'fossil' energy is huge.

Due to the effects of climate change, huge human losses and physical catastrophes are occurring in the world. Similarly, the latest research on the risks of climate change and the technologies to address them are also being developed. In developed countries, technologies such as negative emission technology and geoengineering have started to be included in climate risk mitigation strategies.

Despite all the efforts to keep the global temperature below 2 degrees, the future and likely future extreme climate events are about to affect the world's regional geopolitics. For that, there is a need for strong institutional development in the world. Who should play a competent and coordinating role in geo-politics and nation-to-nation support and cooperation in times of crisis.

If countries unilaterally do any actions that increase carbon in the atmosphere except for reducing carbon emissions to prevent future climate change, such trends will affect other countries and their national interests and objectives. Therefore, it has become indispensable to improve the energy production and use of clean energy sources for energy conversion at present. The faster countries move to clean energy, the less geopolitical crisis will be caused by the effects of climate change.

– Oli is the Nepali ambassador to China and an environmentalist. 

डा. कृष्णप्रसाद ओली राष्ट्रिय प्रकृति संरक्षण कोषका पूर्वअध्यक्ष ओली चीनका लागि नेपाली राजदूत हुन् । उनले राष्ट्रपति विद्यादेवी भण्डारीको कार्यकालमा वातावरण विज्ञका रुपमा काम गरेका थिए ।

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