It is not in the interest of the present or the future generation to have a culture that is not interested in anything other than reaching power, makes any deal with anyone for the fulfillment of vested interests, but is completely incompatible with building a country, good governance and controlling corruption.
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The finance minister has presented a budget of 19 trillion 64 billion 11 crores for the next financial year, slightly less than the limit (ceiling) of the amount set by the Planning Commission. This is 1 trillion 3 billion 81 crores more than the budget of the current financial year. While the previous government brought a budget of 18 trillion 60 billion 30 billion rupees for the current year, it reduced it by 1 trillion 25 billion due to low revenue collection and inability to spend. Looking at this, it can be seen that the general expenses for the next year have decreased slightly and the capital and financial management expenses have increased.
It is necessary for Nepal to gain practical experience from the economic progress of its two neighbours, China, which is the second largest economy in the world, and India, which is the third largest economy. Provisions such as promoting and encouraging the private sector, encouraging information technology and giving priority to start-up businesses are good when the idea that the country can be made not only agricultural but also technological is expanding. But the retail business cannot make the desired leap.
Reduction of 4,654 unfeasible development projects is welcome. But keeping only 30 million plans was limited to the budget. The standard of not buying new four-wheeled vehicles implemented by the government five months ago has been violated. Three months ago, the High Level Economic Reforms Recommendation Commission had suggested implementing the recommendations of the Public Expenditure Review Commission and cutting non-productive and current expenditure. But this budget ignores all these suggestions, standards, the quality mentioned by the Auditor General's office and the reality that around 600 vehicles can be repaired and run in the Singha Durbar complex, and two and a half billion rupees have been set aside for the purchase of new vehicles. About 2,200 vehicles belonging to 40 agencies and subordinate offices of the center have been kept in storage without determining whether they can be repaired and run or whether they should be auctioned. In this way, the tax paid by the people is being misused.
Allocation of more than 4 trillion (about 21 percent) towards capital expenditure for the first time is positive. However, the development project will be started at the beginning of the financial year, the procurement work including contracts will be done quickly, the quality development project will be completed by the end of the financial year, and the allocated funds will be spent productively. The country could not get rid of the tradition of hastily spending towards the end of the year by transferring arbitrary amounts at the end of the year, which was named 'Asare Bikas'. The development administration is not only corrupt, but inefficient and inefficient. However, the resolution to increase spending power is not visible in the budget. Therefore, it cannot be expected that the capital expenditure will be utilized in the targeted work as allocated. Despite the expenditure, there is no possibility of the 6 percent economic growth rate assumed by the budget.
There is a low possibility of collecting more than 13 billion revenue in the status quo. The share of economic activity that is not reflected in the economy, is said to be about 38 percent of GDP. "Broadening the scope of taxes, increasing voluntary tax participation by timely reforming and simplifying the tax laws" is mentioned, but how will the achievement be achieved? The 'informal economy' (black money) is flourishing uncontrollably. It is being discussed that middlemen have flourished due to the support of such illegal businesses, even in revenue determination, middlemen dominate. The illegal trade going on in this way cannot be strictly controlled and brought under the ambit of taxation. As the customs revenue is equal to the total revenue collection of the country, our economy is import-oriented. This trend will increase in the coming year. About 54 billion foreign grants are expected in the budget, being an important means of
development. Given the current US policy and increasing military spending, it is unlikely that a corresponding subsidy will be raised. In the current situation where the public debt is shrinking compared to the GDP, there is a proposal in the budget to increase the debt of 5 trillion 95 billion 66 crores (more than 2 trillion 33 billion 66 billion foreign and 3 trillion 62 billion rupees domestic) to meet the expenses of the next year. On the other hand, Nepal is under intensive monitoring (grey-list) of the Financial Action Taskforce and is moving up the list of corruption. Construction of projects like Pokhara Airport with foreign loans, corruption accounting for more than half of the total cost and impunity will add more complexity.
More and more big corruption scandals are coming one after the other. Transparency International has ranked Nepal as the leading country in South Asia in terms of corruption. In a country with an economy of 62 trillion, it has increased by nearly 1 trillion every year and reached over 12 trillion. The decision to raise 3 trillion 62 billion from domestic debt will lead to an increase in government spending and shrinking private sector investment, which economists call the 'crowding out effect'. After the state consumes a large part of the available liquidity, the private sector will be reluctant to obtain liquidity and operate industries. The prevailing average interest rate on domestic loans is 6.14 percent. Foreign loans are usually only 1.15 percent. The amount to be allocated by the country for this (interest payment) will increase.
Foreign exchange reserves are drying up. Like the legend of King Midas, are we self-absorbed by counting money and saying import reform in the economy? The plan to mobilize the available reserves as financial capital, to make profitable investments based on the concept of high-level economic prosperity and level investment should have been mentioned in the budget.
Rural Nepal is becoming increasingly desolate and uninhabited. As the saying goes, 'time passes and time waits', apart from the elderly, the new generation is disappearing in the wave of foreign employment. The youth generation does not have the feeling that they can earn a decent living within the country. There is an imperative to increase such trust in them from the state. The budget should ensure self-respecting employment for the youth, who are called the energy of the country's speed and progress, to return to the country and keep them within the country. Programs such as 'becoming self-sufficient in rice production and rice in two years and not keeping arable land barren' are undeniable and challenging. Facilitating the deprived and marginalized people below the 21 percent absolute poverty line, especially the rural population, to get minimum income and basic means of living, the priority of social security and justice is a socialist-oriented economy. Development is not an island of prosperity floating somewhere in the ocean of poverty. In the
budget, it is written that 'to solve the unemployment problem in a sustainable manner, the skills and competence of the youth will be developed according to the demand of the labor market'. Factories should be opened to meet the demand for manpower and for this there should be a demand for loans from private entrepreneurs. Banks are piling up loanable funds despite ever-decreasing interest rates. What kind of political, social and economic culture will we leave to the next generation? How will a civilized society write our history if we express our commitment to democracy but cannot tolerate opposition or criticism, make unlimited language and gross power the basis of competence instead of ideological excellence and healthy competition, throw stones at the prayer meeting for the peace of the dead, emphasize on capture and fraud rather than winning the hearts of the people?
A country cannot become a country without coexistence and cooperation. It is not in the interest of the present or the future generation to have a culture that is not interested in anything other than reaching power, will make any kind of agreement with anyone for the fulfillment of vested interests, but is completely incompatible with building a country, good governance and controlling corruption. It is wrong to think that a single budget should end all the problems, challenges and complications in the country. But the budget can take the right direction and hold the path to the solution. The most important triad of economic leadership is determination, willpower and honesty. Taking the Finance Minister's effort that 'the budget was not announced to sanctify the ears' will be correct if it is understood in the sense of constructive suggestions in the deteriorating economic environment of the country.
