With the election of Donald Trump as the US President, the world stage is abuzz. Every day there are big vibrations in economy, politics and geopolitics. With measures such as closing USAID, mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and imposing high tariffs on all foreign goods entering the US, global supply chains have been thrown into disarray.

  From neighboring Canada to rival China, from strategic partner European Union to another big market India, the US has put 185 countries almost in one place. Trump has also warned that US tariffs on Chinese goods supplies have reached 125 percent amid the US's clamor to increase tariffs and retaliate. Apart from China, the US has imposed 49% customs duty on Cambodia, 46% on Vietnam, 44% on Sri Lanka, 37% on Bangladesh, 32% on Indonesia, 29% on Pakistan and 26% on India. For Nepal, the customs rate is 10 percent so far. While there are warnings that Trump's customs policy will create a trade war and push the world economy towards recession, there is also a basis for Nepal to benefit. However, serious homework in diplomacy and economics is expected for this.

According to the data of the Customs Department, America is the country that exports the most from Nepal after India. In the financial year 2080/81, products worth 17 billion 31 crores were exported from Nepal to America. By February of the current financial year, exports worth 11.37 billion have already been made. From Nepal, mainly carpets, churpi and ready-made garments are exported to America. In 2080/81, carpets worth Rs.6.38 billion, Churpi worth Rs.2.76 billion and ready-made garments worth about Rs.2 billion were exported.

Since the customs duty is set according to the country, the price of the same goods going from different countries to the US market will also be different. For example, when Nepal and India export ready-made clothes, carpets and rugs to America, it will be cheaper for Nepal. The demand for Nepalese products may increase due to the possibility that American consumers will be able to choose cheaper products. This is the main place where Nepal can benefit. For this, it is necessary to increase the production of Nepalese goods, which are preferred by the Americans so far, for that, domestic investment should be increased and a policy should be made to attract direct foreign investment. If it is seen that Trump's policy will continue for a long time, industries operating in countries with high customs duties may move to Nepal. At that time, foreign investment will increase in Nepal, industries will open, jobs will be created, the income of the country will increase and international reputation will also be earned. However, to build its strong foundation, ingenuity in diplomacy and seriousness in economics are indispensable. 

The basis on which Nepal can benefit significantly from Trump's customs duty change is low due to our own working style. For example, after the earthquake of 2072, the United States gave duty-free facilities to Nepal on 77 items under the 'Harmonized Tariff Schedule'. Such facilities are available in handicrafts, shawls, travel materials etc. But Nepal could not increase exports even when the customs duty was zero. According to the Trade and Export Promotion Center, only 2 billion 96 million were exported for those 77 items in 5 years. Therefore, there is a possibility that the customs duty of the United States may be "Kaglai bel pakyo, Harsh na Bismat" for Nepal. Nepal's export pattern may remain limited at the same pace as it was going. The possibility of our profit is seen only because other countries have higher customs duties than us. Trump can take an unfavorable policy for Nepal at any time. Diplomatic initiative is necessary to maintain a relatively liberal situation. 

The cost of production in Nepal is also higher because the raw materials have to be brought from other countries, there is a lack of skilled manpower, there are political-administrative obstacles, there is a lack of infrastructure. Improvements are needed in these aspects. Sending the manufactured goods to other countries also takes time due to geopolitical location. So we need to improve on these aspects. If the production capacity can be increased in order to increase the quality of products, branding of products and supply according to demand, the market of Nepali products can spread in America, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia have given enough examples in the past. However, Nepal does not have the time and facility to be silent spectators for this. Because every country is reacting according to its own nature and situation. As such, China has announced aggressive 'resistance'. Canada and the European Union are leading several countries to countermeasures. India is studying the impact on its country. Bangladesh is trying to negotiate with America. Vietnam has adopted a strategy to reduce customs duties on various goods. In such a situation, Nepal cannot ignore the American customs policy.