Last week, the local administration provided three corners of Kathmandu to supporters of the monarchy for a 'peaceful' protest. But the movement was not only chaotic but destructive at the location near the flammable fuel depot and the international airport.

Two people including a television journalist were killed during the protest. A fire was thrown inside the airport. The employees of Herb Production and Processing Company Limited were arrested and set on fire.

Media houses like Kantipur TV and Annapurna Post were attacked. The party office of the United Samajwadi Party was vandalized and set on fire. Private houses, vehicles and public property were burnt. Bhatbhateni supermarket was looted. Even the fire engine that went to put out the fire was stopped, vandalized and turned back.

According to police data, protesters have set fire to 12 places and vandalized 18 private and government buildings. No one claimed responsibility for the violent protests. The commander of the demonstration, Durga Prasai, has fled.

Rabindra Mishra and Dhavalshamsher Rana, who called and instigated the peaceful demonstration as violence, and some people involved in theft, vandalism, looting and arson are in police custody. The federal and local governments and the republican parties have claimed that former king Gyanendra Shah was mainly responsible for the violent demonstrations. This article has been prepared as an attempt to analyze the background and purpose of this event and the political and security perspective. 

background and purpose

The real scenario cannot be understood only from the incident of Chait 25. For a few years now, Shah's regular pilgrimages and meetings within and outside the country, his desperate statements on the occasion of Democracy Day, meeting his former allies and well-wishers and creating an atmosphere for organizing have become a tradition.

Internally, the work of changing the leadership of RPP and creating equations, increasing access to archaic religious, social, and professional organizations, and inspiring lobbying in the name of the needs of the royal institution is ongoing. The constitutional government has often failed to meet the growing public aspirations.

In this background, he was trying to invest in creating comments that would provoke indifferent public opinion. But this year his similar program was also done in a new way, both externally and internally, but the intention was clear.

If we look only at domestic issues, he formally said on the day of Democracy Day that he would return to politics and be an alternative to the current system, characters and trends, saying, 'Now is the time, help us'. In addition, he organized a demonstration to confirm that he was an alternative, that public opinion had returned to him and that he was becoming popular.

The welcome event held by his supporters on February 25 was one such step. He was taken from the airport to Nirmal Niwas on the joint initiative of some groups of his faith. In that event, it was difficult to tell how many Batuwa, Ramite and supporters were stopped due to traffic jams, but the welcome was grand. This increased the enthusiasm of Shah and his supporters. Bidding over who would take charge of the

program and who would be closer to the Shah eventually led to the formation of a movement mobilization committee and an advisory group. But the conflicting image of those in the committee led to division and deviation, all-round apprehension and caution among those who wanted a monarchy, becoming reactive against each other, so Shah created the committee for defense, more coordination or initiative. The infamous panch of Mahendra's era, which was inactive in politics in

committees, and the neo-opportunists who came close to the Shah after being sidelined by the political party, were given responsibility, but none of the leaders of the RPP, who fought to save their political existence even during the extreme crisis, were chosen by the Shah. Shah's reputation on February 25 fell into crisis after the RPP split and announced that it would support all constitutionalist movements, but that it would hold a separate movement.

The gathering at that time, the weeks of propaganda and the propaganda spread that Shah was being placed under house arrest, both his well-wishers and those wondering what was going on, came out on the streets. But in the rally that took Shah from the airport to Nirmal Niwas, there was a dispute between the leaders of the organizers about who and what their role was. The RPP, which has been working on this issue since the time of democracy and trying to create a political environment, has failed.

Even the new entrants who became royalists through Maoists and UML eventually felt humiliated. In this way, the pre-announced movement, which has reached a state where no one can adopt it, the contaminated environment with the entry of Shah's Nirmal Niwas has left a feeling of indifference to all those who practice cultured politics or who think that even ancient ideas can be a future option. Durga came to the attention of Prasain Shah in the search and choice of a character who would fill the enthusiasm and excite the well-wishers and supporters who were suddenly confused and bewildered.

Anti-people and command zero 'Janakmandar'

The choice of commander for Prasai for public operations gives a clear indication and message of Shah's thinking and tone. The Shah still lacks contemporary political wisdom. The taste and appetite for arbitrary power/power after the Panchayat-era dhangdhangi and Darbar massacres is still alive. No faith in political parties and party system at all. It is hoped that by creating chaos, a favorable atmosphere will be created.

It is believed that some extremist and opportunistic people and power inside and outside the country can be controlled and run. He hopes that the people, who have become apathetic because of unfulfilled hopes and expectations, and who are angry against the current situation because of 'Netaraj', share illusions and oppose their side and the current system, and by using it to make the state look weak, it is hoped that legitimacy can be regained.

Durga Prasai, who became a commander to clear this line, is not an accepted personality in any way politically, socially, culturally and personally in terms of character and character. He is a person as an entrepreneur from the pavement, either by combining the Maoists and the UML or separately and alternately. Even though he managed to take more loans than Bigo, he is still in the grip of it. After being sure that Maoist and UML cannot be rescued and used, he seems to have reached the shelter of Shah as a last resort.

On the other hand, Shah was a person who disregarded all social and legal beliefs, methods and bonds of integrity, ethics, future, law, system, who could challenge the state by crossing the limits of arrogance, who could make the state look weak by creating unbridled linguistic and material fear, who was looking for the purpose of the political future, a person who was conscious and without worry or power. This is the background of Shah-Prasai meeting point.

The violence of Chait 15 is the reason for appointing a person like Prasai who has become a symbol of anarchy and anarchy and who has become a figure of anarchy and can become and do anything to fulfill his selfish interests without trusting anyone who is intelligent and cultured and who has spent his life in politics and came to politics to spend his life. Prasain was neither an organizer in the true sense of the word, nor was he in a position to lead and control an agitated mob, representing a group occupying a place of ashram for various purposes and purposes.

Responsibility and Accountability

According to Prasai, he was appointed commander by the Shah. Two days before the demonstration, they talked for two hours about the program and the country's politics. Organizing a program with Samajwadi Morcha, warning the government and administration before the program, and instead of taking sensible steps to make the program successful, the leadership itself, adopting a film style to violate the prohibited area before the program starts, seems to be enough to do the politics of incitement.

Driving the administration and the police with a car, calling others to come after them with excitement, passion and anger, showing arrogance like a winner after breaking the forbidden area, making the government look weak, challenging the security and administration, making the security officers on duty look innocent, terrorizing people and making the state participate in violence.

Whatever happened in the background, the program was organized by some organizations, established political parties in parliament like RPP and some individuals. Senior officials of RPP were present. By the same morning, those who call our program seem to be trying to be Ovano above the water after the violent incident. RPP says - he is not an organizer, his leader does not know Prasain.

While it is not hidden that high-level leaders like RPP's Rabindra Mishra and Dhaval Shamsher called from the mic to incite and incite the crowd. Jagman Gurung, the Kamu leader of the same operational committee formed by Shah, says - Durga ran away, she should not have run away. Let's say the committee has no knowledge and accountability for violence. Nirmal Niwas, the supreme leader who appoints and directs programs and commanders, is silent.

There is no sorrow, regret or condolence for the loss, violence, injured and dead. No explanation. It seems that Prasain was the sole doer and the result of misdeeds. Therefore, even if some characters appear on the outside from a technical point of view, the conscious society does not allow the mastermind (mukhiya) who hides behind the screen to direct and operate to be innocent. This is proved by the investigation and established precedent of the Kailali attack. Kathmandu Municipality further confirms that the penalty letter of around 8 lakhs is written in the name of former King Shah and is not just a coincidence or an impulse.

Lessons for the state

Only those who have closely watched the security system and understand the results so far have analyzed that the security assessment and strategy of the state is weak. They think that it is necessary to be alert and aware of such issues in the future and to strengthen the morale of the security personnel.

It is said that about 4,300 security personnel were deployed on that day, of which 3,000 were deployed in Jadibuti, Koteshwar, Gaushala, Tinkune, Gaucharan areas. If we look at Prasai's actions, he started the violence and incitement. But it is believed that the state has been more flexible and restrained towards him than necessary. Ignoring his psychology, past track record and actions on that day, it is said that the crowd of around 5,000 unruly protesters was difficult to control with around 3,000 security personnel.

The security forces were divided when the administration allowed two groups of opposing political parties to hold events on the same day. Since the program of Samajwadi Morcha had already been decided, another day could have been thought of or suggested instead of another place for the pro-monarchy.

Second, if it was tried to address the situation of misinformation under the pretext of holding a political program, then the established opposition within the system could have been persuaded in the sensitive area near the international airport, the confluence of flammable materials and the parliament building. And, the Bhrikutimandapa area could be allowed for the demonstration of the opposition outside the system. It was seen that the sensitivity was not enough.

Similarly, it seems that the situation is difficult to control because the program is not closely monitored or the potential scenario is overlooked. The previous peaceful welcome program to welcome the Shah was considered the norm, as the protest program was said to be peaceful. On that day, an attempt to set fire to the Narcotics Control Bureau of the police in Koteshwar failed, but 15 vehicles, 14 houses-offices and business centers were vandalized and set on fire, and 10 places were looted. It is considered a success by the organizing leadership. Most of the injured were police personnel (53 police and 22 armed) and 35 civilians. According to reports, no protesters were injured, which is surprising.

The way forward

On the one hand, there is a complaint that the state has become more flexible than the need, on the other hand, the state itself is about to make a comment that it has provoked the situation. People in the know believe that due to their inability to keep the situation under their control, the Friday demonstration caused a lot of damage. The common and common point of these three arguments is that the state did not seem to be able to avoid the attack and the loss of wealth. The security agency will make it the subject of its regular reviews and lessons, but for that, it is necessary to identify and test the information, true facts.