Even before the start of US President Donald Trump's second term on January 20, 2025, the foundations of the post-World War II international order were weakening. After the start of Trump's second term, the old world order has begun to collapse rapidly.

The upheaval in American politics and the extreme right-wing opportunism can greatly affect the question of protecting the national interests of small nations like Nepal. The effects of the collapsing old world order, the current instability in Nepali politics and the protection of Nepali interests and national interests will have to be taken care of.

outside world politics 

The rise of Donald Trump is not only limited to American politics, it has started to have a profound effect on the entire world system. After the Trump administration ridiculed multilateral institutions and started taking unilateral decisions, the overall global governance system (global order) and the methods of regulating international relations have come under question.

International institutions and norms guaranteeing universal sovereignty, territorial integrity and international justice, human rights have been damaged or weakened. The risk of the world system running on the basis of the power of the strong is increasing. The US is embroiled in a trade war. Which will further disrupt the global supply chain.

America's withdrawal from organizations like the World Health Organization is likely to have a negative impact on the health security and development projects of small nations including Nepal. Many developing countries, including Nepal, had to face a sudden lack of resources when aid programs such as USAID and MCC were stopped. The Trump administration's "America First" policy has increased the insecurity of small nations, while the strict immigration policy has increased the possibility that citizens of many countries will be blocked from entering the United States and people who have gone there will be deported. 

This series of Trumpism is not limited to tariff wars and strict immigration policies. According to "The Economist" of March 15, 2025, America is now suffering from "short-termism". Which has made him lose international credibility. Being weak, the security of small countries traditionally provided by the US has become a challenge. 

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli's visit has strengthened Nepal's relationship with China and increased the possibility of investment in infrastructure development. Due to the decrease in American aid and the lack of trust in American diplomacy, it can be assumed that the influence and interest of the neighboring world power China may increase in South Asia and Nepal. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is fueling geopolitical tensions. Economic sanctions are affecting the global supply system.

In this context, the Trump administration's changing relationship with Ukraine and Russia and the Israel-Hamas war, the tension in the entire Middle East including Iran, and the change in the American approach to geopolitical conflicts have brought new waves in the diplomatic world. Russia's diplomatic power and international influence are likely to increase. Nepal's international relations will have to recognize this reality and face the challenge of maintaining a new harmony with the changing forces while protecting the sovereignty of small countries. 

It seems that Europe is clearly on the side of world organizations including the United Nations, protecting human rights, guaranteeing a liberal and egalitarian, just world order and upholding the universal norms established after 1945.

However, recent election results in France and Germany have increased the influence of right-wing parties. It cannot be ruled out that the European perspective is changing due to the growing popularity of right-wing and Trumpism in other European countries. In addition, the diminishing assurance of US security has increased the likelihood that Europe will divert its resources and diplomatic and strategic capabilities to internal security. Due to this, there is an increased risk of laxity and reduction in the means, resources and diplomatic support that Nepal gets. 

Japan, South Korea, and developing and developing countries including Japan, South East Asia, etc. are likely to change in the prioritization of internal resources and diplomatic capabilities. Smaller countries like Nepal are likely to be overshadowed when these countries, like European countries, mobilize resources and power to deal with their internal security and the increasing risk of tariff wars.

The South Asian Association for Cooperation (SAARC) is inactive. As the dominance of big powers is increasing everywhere, there is a growing danger that the voice of small countries like Nepal will weaken in regional organizations including the United Nations. 

Under the leadership of Narendra Modi, India has adopted a 'neighbourhood first' policy, but this is not the case. Countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives seem to be moving away from India. It is said that the diplomatic relations between Nepal and India are cold due to the fact that our Prime Minister is not able to visit India. Due to Nepal-India trade deficit and geopolitical complications, there is little chance of reducing Nepal's dependence on India. The rise of Trump seems to have fueled a wave of Indian right-wing power. However, the impact of US tariff war and strict immigration policy seems to affect India as well. 

The conflict between the various leaders of Nepali politics, ancient monarchist and Hindu forces in Indian politics and the various camps of authoritarianism is not a new scenario.

All the internal forces should be more sensitive to avoid the negative effects of this overall international complexity, the collapsing world order and the erosion of the credibility of international organizations and to promote Nepal's interests and protect national interests. Not only that, there is a situation to strengthen the national institutions that are close to each other and emphasize towards internal reforms. 

Kubela's chaos and people's despair

Nepal's political forces need to unite to protect national interests, but the reality is the opposite. Since the beginning of March, the monarchist and archaic forces have announced a movement and are making announcements of taking to the streets and throwing out the existing republican federal secular system of government.

His intention is to bring back the king, cancel the federalism and make the citizens raiti again and fulfill their vested interests by declaring the eternal Hindu nation. In response to that, political forces including the Samajwadi Front are announcing to go to the people and hold a protest. An important political party in the opposition, the Maoist Center has been opposing every step of the current government.

Some leaders who believe in the federal republican constitution but are not in the government and are outside the power of the ruling parties are presenting themselves to the people with the squeeze that the monarchist ancient powers are getting stronger due to the inaction of the government, lack of good governance and not being able to provide good services to the citizens. As the chairman of the National Independent Party is dealing with the case of misappropriation of the funds of the cooperative organizations, the opposition of that party is getting stronger.  Despite the

opposition, the government is sometimes trying to impose the rule through ordinances and sometimes it is wasting time in political mobilization in defense of those ordinances. In addition to this, the bill on the provision of services for the disabled and the bill on social media regulation are being discussed, causing more political instability.

The correct implementation of federalism in accordance with the spirit of the constitution, deposit of rights, guarantee of good governance and use of information technology to help the citizens in daily life, providing prompt and effective service delivery or protection of people's wealth, as well as immediate increase in public expenditure, completion of development works and showing results are being billed only in speeches. One gets the impression that the government itself is trying to create a sense of despair among the people.

Nepal is always weak and unstable, and foreign powers, especially former king Gyanendra Shah and his interest groups, who want to take advantage of it, have started the unseasonal political cultivation of constitutional amendment to open Pandora's box at this time. However, this discussion seems to have slowed down a bit now.

risk reduction measures 

America, Europe, China, India, South-East Asia, the Middle East and South Asia can be affected by the growing anxiety, nationalism, collapsing world order and the erosion of the credibility of international organizations and the emergence of new beliefs and powers. Therefore, the government and concerned organizations should review the immediate effects, the impact on national security and the challenges in the mobilization of resources and continuously assess the changing situation. The following are suggestions to promote national interests by reducing the risk of instability: 

1. The foreign policy and foreign relations strategies should be revised in such a way that they are suitable for the interests of Nepal while carefully studying the balance of power between America, Russia, Europe, China and India. Cuts in US aid and its new immigration policy should be reviewed to find alternative measures and resettlement programs for returning citizens. For security of small nations, international justice, guarantee of human rights, environmental protection and strengthening of international standard institutions, Nepali interests should be actively protected in the international world by working in the group of countries that have the same vision and especially in the group of small countries that have geopolitics like Nepal. 

2. In order to promote internal stability and prosperity, a culture of continuous dialogue and a transparent and responsible political culture should be established between all political parties, political forces and social organizations that are aware of the rights of sovereign citizens and associated with the republican governance system.

Instead of talking about the amendment of the constitution or spreading excitement among the people by making big political promises, attention should be paid to issues that are directly related to the people's livelihood by shattering the dreams of the monarchist interest groups who want to seize power and take away the civil rights and establish a republic.

Inclusive development, correct implementation of federalism, strengthening of local government, rapid implementation of education, health, water supply and development-construction projects and efforts to find political consensus on the issues of service delivery will bring stability to national politics.

3. All-party participation should be ensured in the formulation of national policies. The guarantee of good governance by controlling transparency, accountability and corruption should not only be reflected in the slogan, but also in the daily ethics, the behavior of the government, the character of the bills and the just mobilization and distribution of resources. The government should inform the general public about its activities and try to win the hearts of the people by effectively disseminating information. 

4. Nepal is the common ground of all Nepalis. It is necessary for everyone to adopt this feeling and look at their own country with a negative mindset and to avoid the morbid state of mind that nothing can happen here, everything that is happening is just a scam. It should always be kept free from the influence of vested interest groups who create instability and disharmony within the society by stimulating them with catchy slogans. We as citizens can build a positive and independent Nepali consciousness by ourselves, it is necessary to instill confidence.

The defense of democracy is only possible with the awareness and constant vigilance of all citizens. All party views and private beliefs are included in the main road of federal democratic republican governance system which seeks equal opportunities and inclusive possibilities for all citizens, respects identity and protects personal freedom. But ordinary citizens are not stuck in the selfish lane of individual worship.