A character often recurs in Nepal's political practice of power. That said, since the day the power alliance was formed between the parties, many questions are raised about its future. The ruling party leaders advocate that the coalition is strong, while the opposition claims that the government will collapse. This is the fate of the Congress-UML coalition government formed almost 6 months ago.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has been defending the government in various public statements since the party meeting, while former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) has been constantly protesting that 'this government is not functioning'.

For the past few days, he has been determined to create an atmosphere against the ruling coalition. His attempt to organize the opposition parties against the government and revive the card of the 'Socialist Front', which was used in the past as a weapon to maintain power, is the latest link.

The future of this alliance has been questioned for two reasons. First, the opinion expressed by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on the constitutional amendment. After Oli said at the UML Central Committee meeting held last week, 'Constitutional amendment will happen only in 2087', his statement has created a kind of controversy and confusion within the ruling coalition.

Some leaders of the Congress have responded in public that 'there is no justification for the government if the constitution is not amended', and it is a 'violation of the consensus of the seven parties'. Based on this growing dissatisfaction within the coalition, the opposition has claimed that the lifespan of the government has decreased.

Second, the government's slow and ineffective action. No one is satisfied with the 'performance' of the government at this time. Neither the people nor the party leaders. It is not unusual for opposition parties and leaders to be dissatisfied, to protest. However, here the situation is like this, the leaders of the alliance are expressing dissatisfaction and disappointment over the weak performance of the government. UML itself has raised questions about the poor presence of the government. Prime Minister Oli himself is not satisfied with the work of the government. This context also raises questions about the future of the government. 

But, are these questions capable of attacking the joint power of Congress-UML? As questions are being raised about the future of the government, Nepali Congress General Minister Gagan Thapa has claimed that the alliance will last for three years, i.e. till 2084. Is this statement of his really aimed at the stability of the coalition or is it only for the consumption of the opposition who have come against the government? How reasonable is Prachanda's claim that the government will collapse? Is there still a possibility of an alternative power coalition? This article focuses on some of these questions raised about the lifespan of the Congress-UML coalition government. 

There are two main bases of power collaboration between Congress and UML. First, the constitutional basis. Second, the political base. Constitutional basis can also be called arithmetical basis in another language. After matching the arithmetic, the parties have become adept at co-operating in power by covering their own political base. Therefore, it is the reality of the current politics that the basis of mathematics is basically heavy in power cooperation. 

From the point of view of Parliament's arithmetic, the power alliance of Congress and UML is safe. This cooperation does not break until one of the two is forced to abandon the power alliance. This is the third alternative to the parliament formed after the general election, 2079. Congress and UML, the first and second largest parties in the parliament, have chosen this third option as there is no margin for failure. Earlier, two options of power cooperation have been tested. Maoist's 'magic number' (32 seats) worked in both those options. 

In the 2079 general elections, Congress, Maoists and United Socialists contested the election by forming a front. UML also contested elections in alliance with RPPA. As a result, Nepali Congress emerged as the first largest party with 88 seats, UML second with 79 seats, Maoist Center third with 32 seats and Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RASPA) emerged as the fourth largest party with 21 seats. In the same way, the party of the former Panchs, RPP, is in parliament with 14 seats, CPN United Socialists split from UML with 10 seats, and Madhesh-centric parties with 26 seats. There are also a small number of independent and smaller parties. 

Many people expected that the coalition government will be formed between these parties as the Congress, Maoists, and Unified Socialists were in a deadlock in the election. However, when Sher Bahadur Deuba and Prachanda did not agree on who would become the prime minister in the first phase, Prachanda went to UML's refuge. Initially, Deuba was ready to give Prachanda the prime ministership in the first phase, but he broke that gentleman's agreement when the Congress became the largest party. Then, on 10th January 2079, Prachanda was appointed as the Prime Minister for the third time with the support of parties including the UML, the newly formed party, the RSVP. He got the support of Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, Madhesh-centric parties Janmat Party, Civil Liberation Party, Janata Samajwadi Party etc. Prachanda received the trust of 268 votes out of 270 votes cast in the House of Representatives on 26th January. That is, the Congress also supported him. 

Oli did not like the support given by the Congress. He had sarcastically criticized that he had been 'cheated' by the Parliament. Over time, that support turned out to be 'deceitful'. After the UML and Maoists did not get votes in the presidential election, Prachanda returned to the alliance with the Congress. The agreement reached in January was broken in the second week of February. UML went out of power. The Prime Minister remained with the support of Prachanda Congress.

Another coalition government was formed in collaboration with the Congress. Using Prachanda's 'magic number', the process of changing alliances did not stop. On February 21, 2080, he broke his alliance with the Congress and joined forces with the UML and other parties. In this way, after Prachanda's power strategy had to be used time and again, the two big parties, Congress and UML, came to the conclusion of power cooperation. What is the possibility of breaking this alliance formed in this background? Are there other options?

In terms of parliamentary mathematics, there are only limited options for power coalitions, now. As discussed above, the first natural option after the general election of 2079 was a coalition government between the parties that blocked the election. Although it could not be formed in the beginning, later a coalition government was formed between the Maoists and the Congress, but it could not provide stability. 

The second option, a government of the left. Leftists have had the opportunity to run the government in Nepali power politics many times. After the first general election in 2074, the powerful communist government fell apart due to civil strife. The Communists, who were stronger together, later split and returned to the old situation. That conflict created a polarization between the Congress and the Maoists. However, the parliament formed after the second general election also provided another opportunity to form a left-dominated coalition government.

then could not use the opportunities. Will there be a situation where the left will go to the option of repeating the same failed practice? Seeing the bitterness and hostile flirting between UML and Maoists, especially Oli and Prachanda, it does not seem possible right now. However, when Oli's tenure ends and the 2084 election approaches, if the flute of left-wing unity is sounded, it will not be a new phenomenon. 

Thirdly, another option left in this Parliament is to form a coalition with smaller parties under the leadership of the Congress, keeping the left-wing parties like Maoist and UML in the opposition. However, the Congress will not be ready to create an atmosphere of unity by keeping the communists with a divided mentality on the opposition benches. Another thing is that there is no political environment and basis for such an equation to be formed by including parties like RSWP, RPRPA and others. The fourth option is a coalition government formed by major parties like Congress-UML. which is now in practice.

This government has not been able to instill hope in the common people. Despite the grand talk of good governance, in practice there is general dissatisfaction and disappointment in the civil circles. In spite of that, the joint coalition of the two major parties, which is in a 'comfortable' state in terms of parliamentary arithmetic, is not in a condition to be broken due to their own political compulsions of both parties. Congress General Minister Thapa has therefore claimed that the alliance will last till 2084. 

After Oli went against the spirit of the seven-point agreement and spoke about the amendment of the constitution, there are those who argue that the political basis of the cooperation between these two parties is weak. Of course, the political basis of this alliance is the seven-point agreement between these two parties. In that too, under the guise of a political issue of correcting the deficiencies in the constitution and amending it, there was a power collaboration between these two parties. That's why many Congress leaders have questioned the justification of the alliance as Oli has gone against the seven-point consensus on the issue of constitutional amendment. However, the reality is that the constitutional amendment issue between the Congress and the UML was only a 'showing tooth' for power cooperation. 

Generality In parliamentary practice, the practice of government formation between two major parties is very rare. Except in very special circumstances, major parties tend to have one main opposition and one in power. Such practices are also preferred in parliamentary democracy so that the government does not become totalitarian. Despite these traditions and customs, the Congress-UML had to advance some important issues to come to power. Therefore, these two parties initially said that they would form a national government. Similarly, the issue of constitutional amendment was brought forward. However, these issues were only a 'cover' of the ruling coalition.

Congress and UML were not thinking of forming working groups to discuss the issue of constitutional amendment, but they were not thinking of proceeding with the amendment. Instead, the issues raised in the debate on the amendment of the constitution could become an election issue in 2084, but it was not the inner intention of the two-party coalition to amend the constitution now. That's why Oli gave the expression "constitution amendment only in 2087". That is, this expression alone will not be the factor that will put an end to the journey of these two parties. Instead, the 'invisible maneuver' that is always dominating Nepali power politics can become a matter of concern and challenge for this alliance.