The report notes that this growth rate could be further reduced if energy prices rise due to conflicts in West Asia and global transport disruptions continue for a long time.
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The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected that world merchandise trade growth will slow to 1.9 percent in 2026. The organization's 'Global Trade Outlook and Statistics', released on Thursday, projects the underlying growth rate excluding fluctuations in energy prices in the world market.
The global merchandise trade growth rate, which was 4.6 percent in 2025, is expected to slow to 1.9 percent in 2026. The report states that this growth rate could be even lower if the conflict in West Asia continues to raise energy prices and disrupt global transport for a long time.
The organization said that the growth rate will decline as trade is expected to return to normal due to the growth of artificial intelligence (AI)-related products and imports that have already been made to avoid new customs duties. In 2027, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 2.6 percent.
Trade in commercial services is projected to slow to 4.8 percent in 2026 after growing 5.3 percent this year and to rebound to 5.1 percent in 2027. Overall, trade in goods and services is projected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2026, compared with 4.7 percent in 2025. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow slightly to 2.8 percent in both 2026 and 2027, from 2.9 percent in 2025.
Higher crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices in 2026 would reduce GDP projections by 0.3 percentage points in 2026. This would reduce trade projections for this year by 0.5 percentage points and by up to 1.0 percentage points for sectors dependent on energy imports. In a scenario of higher energy prices, trade in goods would grow by only 1.4 percent. Trade in services would also grow at a slower rate of 4.1 percent in 2026.
Trade in high-tech products and digitally delivered services, adaptations in supply chains and avoidance of retaliatory tariffs have reflected the resilience of global trade, said the organization's director-general, Goji Okonjo-Iweala.
'However, this baseline projection is under pressure due to the conflict in West Asia,' she said. 'Continued increases in energy prices could increase risks to global trade, which could impact food security and create cost pressures for consumers and businesses.'
In addition to fuel, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that supplies fertilizers crucial to global agriculture, has disrupted supplies. Normally, about a third of the world's fertilizer exports pass through this waterway.
Major agricultural producers such as India, Thailand and Brazil rely on the Gulf for 40 percent, 70 percent and 35 percent of their urea imports, respectively. Gulf countries are also facing food security challenges. The organization states that the average rice import dependency in the Gulf countries is 75 percent, while the import of corn, soybeans and vegetable oils is more than 90 percent.
