In a decade, Nepal has been upgraded from a least developed country to a developing one. According to the schedule, Nepal will be upgraded to a developing country by 2026.
Compared to before the promulgation of the Constitution in Nepal, there has been an improvement in most of the indices of the economy by 2082. The external condition of the economy, government finances, financial index, etc. seem to have improved. However, the public debt owed by the government has increased four times, while the expected improvement in indicators such as trade deficit, investment, and poverty alleviation has not been achieved.
In a decade, Nepal has been upgraded from a least developed country to a developing one. According to the schedule, Nepal will be upgraded to a developing country by 2026. However, it remains to be seen whether the damage caused by the demonstrations on August 23 and 24 will hinder upgrading in developing countries.
Economic growth
Before the promulgation of the constitution, the economic growth rate in the financial year 2072/73 was 0.77 percent. An earthquake occurred in May 2072. The economic growth rate became high as the economic activity started to recover and the economic activity started to expand due to the damage caused by the earthquake. In the following two years, investment in tourism, cement, steel and other sectors expanded. The reconstruction of the damage caused by the earthquake also accelerated. Because of this, the economic growth rate was high.
The economic growth rate of Nepal was around 7.5 percent three years before the global spread of the Covid-19 epidemic damaged the overall economic activity. But to deal with the covid infection, there was a lockdown for about four months. Its impact was seen in economic growth. As a result, it remained negative by 2.4 percent in the financial year 2076/77. But that situation did not last long. After that, the economic growth rate in the last year was 4.48 percent. The economy has been sluggish since August 2079. During that period, the economic growth rate has been negative in three quarters and it is 1.95 percent in 2079/80 and 3.87 percent in 2080/81. The National Statistics Office has predicted a 3.99 percent economic growth in basic prices last fiscal year.
Nepalese per capita income has increased by 744 US dollars in a decade. The per capita income in 2072 was 752 dollars and reached 1496 dollars by last year.
government finance
In the year when the constitution was promulgated (fiscal year 2072/73), the size of Nepal's total budget was 8 trillion 19 billion 46 crore rupees. About 59 percent (4 trillion 84 billion) was allocated for current and 25 percent (2 trillion 8 billion) for capital expenditure. 4 trillion 75 billion rupees revenue was collected that year. In 10 years (up to the last financial year), the size of the budget has increased to 18 trillion 60 billion. In which 11 trillion 40 billion rupees have been allocated for current and 3 trillion 52 billion rupees for capital expenditure. In that year, about 80 percent of the annual target of 11 trillion 40 billion revenue was collected. Although the size of the budget has increased over a period of 10 years, the scope of revenue collection has not increased, nor has the capacity and effectiveness of capital expenditure increased. This is also confirmed by the average capital expenditure of 60% in the last decade.
12 trillion in debt principal-interest payment
In the past 10 years, the government has spent 11 trillion 97 billion 71 billion rupees in the payment of principal and interest (debt service) of public debt. The government has paid 3 trillion 2 billion 95 crores (20.30 percent) in principal and interest of external loans and 8 trillion 94 billion 76 crores (74.70 percent) for principal and interest of internal loans in the financial year 2071/72 to 2080/81.
The Public Debt Management Office said that only 3 trillion 25 billion 488 million rupees of interest was paid in a decade. The remaining 8 trillion 72 billion 22 billion 98 lakh rupees is the loan principal. Recently, as the principal-interest payment obligation of the public debt continues to increase, the government has to borrow to pay the principal-interest of the debt. In the last 10 years, the government has raised 25 trillion 91 billion 83 billion rupees in public debt.
The government raised 3 trillion 60 billion rupees in public debt in the fiscal year 2080/81, of which 2 trillion 34 billion 42 billion is internal and 1 trillion 25 billion 66 billion is external debt. In the same year, the government spent 3 trillion 5 billion 37 million rupees to pay the principal and interest of the loan. 2 billion 23 billion 34 crore (73.13 percent) and 82 billion 3 billion (26.87 percent) were spent to pay the loan principal. This shows that more than 85 percent of the raised government debt is spent on principal and interest payments of old loans. Since the financial year 2080/81, since the debt liability has increased, more budget has to be allocated for financial management than for capital expenditure. Experts say that this situation has come about because Nepal took a huge loan especially after the 2072 earthquake and some of the public loans were used in unproductive areas.
power generation
In a decade, an additional 2,664 megawatts of electricity has been produced in Nepal. In 2072, 847 megawatts of electricity was produced, and by last June, it had increased to 3,512 megawatts.
Significant expansion of the financial sector
Although the number of banks and financial institutions has decreased compared to a decade ago, their branch networks have expanded. There is also a huge increase in indicators including deposits and credit. In the banking sector, electronic payment transactions such as QR, mobile banking have increased rapidly, and financial access has also expanded along with deposits and loans. According to this, the total deposits of banks and financial institutions were 19 trillion 10 billion in the year 2072, but now it has increased to 73 trillion. The total credit disbursement of banks and financial institutions which was 14 trillion 94 billion rupees 10 years ago is now 56 trillion 25 billion rupees. Compared to 10 years ago, the interest rate offered by banks and financial institutions has also decreased, while service delivery has increased.
The weighted average interest rate that common people pay when taking loans from banks and financial institutions is 7.85 percent last June. This is the lowest in the last 13 years. Rastra Bank started calculating the weighted average interest rate of deposits and loans from 2069 (year 2012). The average interest rate on loans last June was the lowest since then. Experts claim that the interest rate of last June was the lowest so far. Rashtra Bank officials say that interest rates were not so low before 2069. The weighted average interest rate on loans in June 2019 was 12.40 percent. In the financial year 2077/78 June, the average interest rate of loans in banks and financial institutions was 8.43 percent.
Since then, interest rates on loans have been on the rise. In the financial year 2079/80 February, the average loan interest rate reached 13.03 percent. Since then the interest rate started to decrease again. The interest rate that began to decline from that point was 9.93 percent in June 2081. Last June, interest rates on loans fell to an average of 7.85 percent. "Rashtra Bank has started calculating the weighted average interest rate since 2012. Since then, the average interest rate of loans has been at its lowest point in last June," said a senior official of Rashtra Bank.
external area
External indicators of the economy including remittances, imports, exports, foreign exchange reserves have also improved significantly. In the financial year 2072/73, 6 trillion 80 billion remittances were received in the country. In the last fiscal year, 17 trillion 23 billion remittances have come. In 10 years, there has been a huge increase in the number of Nepalis who have taken work permits for foreign employment. In 2072, 280,000 people took work permit, and last year, it reached 6,461,000.
Foreign exchange reserves have exceeded 28 trillion as of last July. While in the year 2072/73, such reserve was 10 trillion 9 billion rupees. 10 years ago, import was 4 trillion 35 billion, export was 42 billion 73 billion and trade deficit was 3 trillion 93 billion. As of last June, import is 18 trillion 4 billion, export is 2 trillion 77 billion and trade deficit is 15 trillion 27 billion. A decade ago, there were 27,990 km of roads. Out of this, the black road was 11 thousand 890 km. Till last June, the total road has increased to 36 thousand 132 km. Out of this, 19 thousand 163 km of black road is. A decade ago, all types of vehicle registrations were 2.143 million, but this number has reached 5.6 million by last June. In one decade, the total market capitalization of the capital market of Nepal has increased along with the number of investors, listed companies and the size of the stock market along with the NEPSE index.
Government bonds have not been dematerialized and other necessary infrastructure of the stock market, including the Investor Protection Fund, has not been built. According to this, the NEPSE index was at 1 thousand 318 points in October 2072 and it was at 2 thousand 794 points till last June.
Information and Communication
Internet usage in 2072 was in its infancy. According to the data of Nepal Telecommunication Authority, Internet penetration in 2072 Baisakh was less than half of the total number, i.e. only 43 percent. Internet was run through dial up connection, cable modem, Ethernet, Visat. A total of 14 million used the Internet.
Broadband (high speed internet) access has tripled to 137 percent by 2082 Baisakh. Internet users are currently more than 39.94 million (seems more than the population as most people have two or more SIMs). High speed internet service is available through 4G and Fiber to the Home (FTTH).
Optical fiber has been extended to all 77 districts. But fixed broadband service expansion is only 45.25 percent. The number of users towards voice services was 2.57 crore in 2072. At that time technologies like PSTN, CDMA, Limited Mobility were running. Total voice subscriptions reached 2.97 crores in 2082 Baisakh. Landline usage is limited to 4 lakh 12 thousand while mobile service expansion is 98 percent (more than 292 million). Nepal has become one of the leading countries in South Asia in terms of mobile and internet access. The cyber security index is only 69 percent. Nepal is at the bottom in electronic governance.
Absolute poverty in Nepal has not yet decreased in a decade. In 2072, Nepal's poverty was 23.8 percent. Nepal's poverty is 20.27 percent. Previously, poverty was calculated in two ways, absolute and relative, but multidimensional poverty has now been calculated. The gross domestic product (GDP) which was 22 trillion 48 billion a decade ago has exceeded 61 trillion by last year. During this period, the contribution of the agriculture and industry sectors has decreased, while the contribution of the service sector has increased.
