GDP is estimated to be 61 trillion 7 billion, consumption expenditure is 93.45 percent of GDP, per capita income is 1517 US dollars, exports are 8.74 percent of GDP, imports are 33.23 percent of GDP and remittances are estimated to be 25.32 percent of GDP.
Despite the positive growth in all sectors of the economy, the economic growth rate of Nepal in the current financial year is going to be lower than the target. The annual National Accounts Estimates Report published by the National Statistics Office on Wednesday has made a preliminary estimate that the country's economic growth rate at basic prices will be 3.99 percent in the fiscal year 2081/82. In the current fiscal year, the government has set a target of 6 percent economic growth.
In the last financial year, there was a positive growth in the industry, construction and trade sectors, but the overall economic growth rate of the country will be around 4 percent only, the office said. Based on the actual data of the current financial year up to 9 months (last March) and the estimated data of the next three months (from April to June), the office has released the national accounting data.
In the last fiscal year, the economic growth rate of Nepal at basic prices was initially estimated to be 3.54 percent, but it has been revised to 3.36 percent. This projection of the office is lower than that projected by the government and donor agencies such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, etc. for this year. For the year 2025, the World Bank has predicted 4.5 and ADB 4.4 percent economic growth.
In terms of consumer prices, the economic growth rate of Nepal this year is estimated to be 4.61 percent. In the last financial year 2080/81, the economic growth rate of consumer prices is revised to be 3.67 percent.
In fiscal 2079/80, such growth rate was 1.98 percent. The consumer price comes after taxes and subsidies are included in the basic price. Therefore, the rate of economic growth calculated on consumer prices tends to be higher than on basic prices. But as revenue collection fell by around 18 percent compared to the target, economic growth calculated at basic prices three years ago was higher than that calculated at consumer prices. But since last year, it has returned to its old state.
Since there is positive growth in all sectors of the economy, if there are no major disruptions in the remaining months of the financial year, the economic growth rate of 3.99 percent in basic prices and 4.61 percent in consumer prices is expected to be achieved, said Madhusudan Burlakoti, chief statistics officer of the National Statistics Office.
"While the growth rate of three sectors was negative last year, there is a positive growth in all sectors this year, so the growth rate can be achieved as expected," he said. In the current fiscal year 2081/82, the initial estimate is that the growth rate of the agricultural sector will be 3.28 percent and the non-agricultural sector will be 4.28 percent.
In the financial year 2080/81, the growth rate of the agricultural sector is estimated to be 3.35 percent and the growth rate of the non-agricultural sector is estimated to be 3.36 percent. Burlakoti says that in the financial year 2079/80, the growth rate of the agricultural sector was 3.02 percent and the growth rate of the non-agricultural sector was 1.98 percent.
GDP is studied by dividing the entire industrial sector into three major groups, primary, secondary and services. In the current fiscal year 2081/82, the primary, secondary and service sector growth rates are estimated to be 3.25, 4.65 and 4.21 percent respectively. According to the revised statement, the growth rate of the primary, secondary and service sectors in the last fiscal year 2080/81 is 3.35, negative 0.03 and 4.35 percent respectively.
By the end of this financial year, the size of the economy is estimated to reach 61 trillion 7 billion gross domestic product (GDP). It is estimated that the size of GDP this year will increase by about 4 trillion rupees compared to last year. Last year, the size of GDP will remain at 57 trillion 4 billion rupees
Although the initial estimate was made, the office said that there was a general change in the amount of 57 trillion 9 billion rupees. The revised estimate of the office is that the size of the economy will be 53 trillion 67 billion in the financial year 2079/80.
This year, the per capita income of Nepalis is estimated to reach 1 thousand 517 US dollars. The revised estimate is that the per capita national income of the last fiscal year will be 1,467 dollars. According to the office, the per capita income in the financial year 2079/80 is 1,410 US dollars.
In the financial year 2081/82, the primary, secondary and service sectors are estimated to contribute 25.6, 12.4 and 62.0 percent respectively to the gross domestic product. The revised estimate is that primary, secondary and service sectors have contributed 25.2, 12.4 and 62.4 percent respectively to the gross domestic product in the financial year 2080/81.
In the financial year 2081/82, the electricity and gas sector will have the highest growth rate of 13.82 percent. It is said that the growth of this sector has remained significant due to the increase in the capacity of hydroelectric power production in this region in recent years as well as the expansion in consumption. In the financial year 2080/81, the growth rate of this sector was 10.96 percent.
The growth rate of the transport and storage sector is 9.45 percent. According to the report, the growth rate of education sector is 1.98 percent and that of mining and quarrying is 1.99 percent. It is estimated that the growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector will be 25.16% and the contribution of business sector will be 14.55% in the total domestic product this year. During that period, the contribution of water supply, sewage, waste management sector was 0.42 percent and mining and quarrying was 0.46 percent.
In the current financial year, the growth rate of the industrial sector will be 3.78 percent. The contribution of this sector to the GDP is estimated to be 4.98 percent. Last financial year, the growth rate of this sector was negative (-2.02 percent). Although negative growth rate was observed in the previous two financial years in this area, the office said that there are signs of improvement in the current financial year.
"Especially the significant increase in the production of vegetable oil, plywood, plastic pipe fittings, beverages, cement, soap and other products is expected to improve in this sector," the report says, "During the said period, the increase in raw materials such as soybean oil, zinc leaf and iron rod raw materials, coal and the increase in the demand for manufactured goods also seems to have a positive effect on the production growth of the industrial sector."
Current financial year In 2081/82, the construction sector is expected to contribute 5.24 percent to the GDP and the total value added growth rate is estimated to be 2.21 percent. This sector has seen a negative growth rate for the past two years and in the current financial year, the import of construction materials and the production of construction industrial goods. The report mentions that the
growth is improving. The revised estimate is that the growth rate of this sector was 2.2 percent negative last financial year. In the current financial year, this sector will contribute 14.55 percent to the total domestic product and the growth rate of this sector is estimated to be 3.30 percent. Compared to the last financial year, the increase in the import of commercial goods as well as the increase in domestic production of agricultural and commercial goods is expected to improve the value addition of this sector.
This year, the economic growth rate of the transport and storage sector is expected to be 9.45 percent and the contribution of this sector to the GDP is estimated to be 7.20 percent. Compared to the last financial year, it is estimated that the value addition of this sector will increase due to the increase in the import of vehicles and the movement of tourists.
It is estimated that accommodation and food service sector will contribute 2.46 percent to the total domestic product in the current financial year and the economic growth rate will be 5 percent. The office estimates that the increase in the movement of foreign and domestic tourists will have a positive effect on the value addition of this sector in the current financial year. Last fiscal year, the growth rate of this sector was estimated to be 21.03 percent.
It is said that the growth rate of information and communication sector will be 4.81 percent and 1.94 percent contribution to GDP in the current financial year. In the current financial year, the Office estimates that the total value addition of this sector will increase due to the increase in activities related to computer programming and information services, the business of Internet service providers and the increase in wireless communication services.
Similarly, this financial year, the country's total fixed capital formation is estimated to be 24.07 percent of GDP. Last financial year, this ratio was 24.33 percent. It is estimated that 93.45 percent of GDP will be spent on consumption in the current financial year. Last financial year, this ratio was 93.78 percent. Total national savings this year is 36.24 percent of GDP.
Last financial year, this ratio was 35.39 percent. It is estimated that the remittance received from foreign employment will be 25.89 percent of GDP. Last fiscal year, this ratio was 25.32 percent. According to the fourth edition of the International Industrial Classification of economic activities of the country, the activities of production of goods and services are classified into 21 main activities.
