Despite the Prime Minister's claims, there is no improvement in the economy

Apart from some indicators of the external sector, the situation in government finance, banking, investment, consumption and other sectors is disappointing

Poush 23, 2081

Kantipur Reporter

Despite the Prime Minister's claims, there is no improvement in the economy

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Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has claimed that the economy is gradually improving after he took over the leadership. In the political report presented by President Oli at the eighth meeting of the UML Central Committee, the Prime Minister mentioned that the message of political stability and the formation of a strong government has increased confidence in the private sector.

 

The current government has gradually moved forward in a positive direction by preventing the economy from going downhill. There has been a positive improvement in the capital market. Compared to the same period last year, there has been an increase in revenue, improvement in exports and imports and an increase in capital expenditure, said the Prime Minister. Although he claims that the economy has improved, the figures do not show that. 

Even though the interest rate is continuously decreasing, the loan demand in banks and financial institutions has not increased. Bad loans of banks are increasing. Industries are still running at less than half capacity. Market demand is constantly decreasing. It is confirmed that the confidence of the private sector has not increased due to the lack of credit demand and investment.

In the five months of the current financial year, the government has spent 40 billion 80 million rupees. This is only 11.58 percent of the annual target. In five months of last year, the government spent 37 billion 70 million or 11.94 percent of the annual target. The capital expenditure for five months is less than the government's monthly target of about 27.5 billion. The government had set a target of 68.4 billion rupees in capital expenditure by the end of November. This year, the government has allocated 3 trillion 52 billion 354 million rupees towards capital expenditure.

In the first five months of the current financial year, the government's revenue collection has also been very weak. By the end of November, 28.15 percent of the annual target, i.e. 3 trillion 99 billion 59 million revenue has been raised. This is about one billion rupees less than the government's monthly revenue collection target. In five months of this year, the government had set a target of revenue collection of 4 trillion 94 billion rupees. For the current financial year, the government has set a target of raising 14 trillion 71 billion 62 billion 95 million in revenue.

NEPSE reached 3000 points on July 31, which was 2000 points on June 16. The stock market, which did not grow for a long time, increased by about 1000 points during that period. But that growth did not last long and the market began to decline. And, last October 13, NEPSE decreased to 2,464 points. Since then, although there has been a general improvement in NEPSE, it has been hovering between 2500 and 2600 points for a long time. But Prime Minister Oli has claimed that the stock market is improving. 

'For the first time, Nepal's sovereign credit rating has been done. And, Nepal has secured the second place after India in South Asia," the Prime Minister said, "The message has been sent globally that Nepal is a favorable country for investment."  Although the Prime Minister claims that the

rating has sent a good message to the world market for foreign investment, neither the commitment has increased, nor has more investment been brought in as per the previous commitment. 

  A high-level economic reform suggestion commission has been formed to improve the country's economy. Payment obligations created since last year have been almost fulfilled. About a dozen regulations, procedures, guidelines, etc. have been passed and implemented," said the political report of the Prime Minister, "the budget scattered on small projects without study has been emphasized to focus on strategic projects of national pride, and frugality has been emphasized to implement a disciplined work system. According to the Prime Minister, this committee is working and holding regular discussions with various sectors of the economy and stakeholders. But so far no measures have been submitted for the improvement of the economy. 

The external condition of the economy is relatively favorable. The range of investable capital and remittance flow in the bank has expanded. The interest rate has come down to a single point," said the Prime Minister. But the growth rate of lending is very low. By last November, deposits in banks and financial institutions have increased by 1.49 billion 84 crores (2.3 percent).

Deposits increased by 1.54 billion 61 crores (2.7 percent) during the same period last year. During the same period, loans from banks and financial institutions to the private sector increased by 1 trillion 28 billion 47 crores (2.5 percent). During the same period last year, such loans increased by 99.4 billion (2.1 percent).

When the expected improvement in economic activity is not happening, last July, the National Bank introduced a monetary policy with an ambitious target of 12.5 percent credit expansion. The facilities given to the construction sector, the reduction in the limit of the provisions related to the loss of good loans, the new provision to be counted in the capital fund, the abolition of the limit of institutional share loans, the flexible policy on the blacklist, the provision of unsecured loans for foreign employment and the policy to encourage the loans going to the sector have marked the expansion of credit this year. Rashtra Bank claimed to be. But the data of the last month has shown that credit expansion is slow. In order to meet the target of the National Bank, banks and financial institutions have to expand loans by an additional 6 trillion 54 billion 75 crore rupees this year. Last year, the target of expanding credit by 11 and a half percent was set, but only 7 percent, i.e. 3 trillion 44 billion 72 crores, was disbursed. 

Prime Minister Oli has claimed that the price increase is under control. However, in recent months, the market price has started to rise continuously. The average consumer price increase rate is 5.60 percent in the Economic and Financial Status Report of the Rashtra Bank last November. This is 0.22 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In October 2008, such price increase was 5.38 percent.

Last November's average price increase was the highest in the last 9 months. Earlier last January, the average consumer price inflation rate was 5.01 percent. Since then, although at a low rate, the market price has been rising continuously. At the same time, it reached more than 5 and a half percent last October.

The rise in inflation in recent months is due to the increase in Indian inflation. India's average price increase has declined slightly to 5.48 percent in October from 6.21 percent last October. According to the experts, price increase has also entered Nepal along with goods and services imported from India last October. 

Kantipur

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