BRI is an important agenda in the context of Prime Minister KP Oli's upcoming visit to China. The current Nepali Congress-NCP UML joint government has decided its opinion on the BRI project agreement. The Chinese ambassador has made it clear that the loan of Pokhara International Airport, which is the agenda of Prime Minister Oli, will not be converted into a grant.

As there was a point-by-point debate about the MCC project in Nepal. In the same way, there is a voice that the BRI document should also be made public and debated. 

Geopolitics behind BRI

Due to Nepal's excessive dependence on India, there is a situation where the leadership is still hesitant to expand the broader relationship with China . Because India can influence the kitchen of the common Nepalese due to its dependence on basic commodities such as rice, lentils, and vegetables, it is natural for the Nepali leadership class to hesitate. In diplomacy, you have to have a place to take your place to negotiate, only then can you keep your subject open. The demand from the other side can also be ignored .

For example, in June 2024, the 16th Diplomatic Consultation Mechanism between Nepal and China was on the agenda for the implementation of BRI. But the financial structure of the BRI project did not agree with the Chinese side. In that negotiation, the negotiation was not successful because Nepal took the stand that it would only accept the Chinese project with a subsidy.

An academic organization called Cesif in Kathmandu has stated through a study that the interest rate of the BRI project will be 4.2 percent, the grace period will be less than 2 years and the maturity period will be less than 10 years . In addition, the study of the organization stated that the interest rate of the World Bank and ADB is only 1.3 percent and the payment time is also longer.

Generality ADB's loan repayment time ie repayment period is about 30 years . When Nepal negotiates with the Chinese side, it should be able to say that it will take either a grant or a loan at the interest rate of the World Bank and ADB. If we are getting a loan at a cheap interest rate, there is no question of taking a loan at a higher interest rate.  

If a country becomes independent in world politics, it can make its positions clear. The same is true for Nepal. Nepal's dependence on China is much less than that of India. Therefore, China's pressure on Nepal is limited. But with India, there could be a compulsion to adjust the interest rate as much as it said.

The relationship between India and Canada has been deteriorating for some time. Canada's Pram informed the parliament that a Canadian citizen of Punjabi origin was killed by the spy of the Indian government on Canadian soil. As a result of that, India made accusations against it without evidence and challenged the Canadian government to present the evidence. After that, both countries recalled each other's diplomatic staff. The subject to be understood here is that in India, where the dream of common Indians is to become a citizen and permanently reside in Canada by showing various reasons.

But common Canadians rarely dream of settling down in India. Also, India, whose per capita income is only $2700, while Canada's is about $54,000. Even Canada, which is at the peak of development, was shocked by India on the world stage without any flow . The simple reason for this is that India is not dependent on Canada. Bargaining power comes in diplomacy after not being dependent. What I am trying to say here is that even though Nepal's situation with China and India's situation with Canada are different, if the country is not dependent on another country, they can face it head on. 

But despite this, the Chinese influence in Nepal cannot be underestimated. Because the left trend is widespread in Nepal and every left party thinks that they have ideological harmony with China's Mao and China . Commentary and organizational skills of communists are high class . In that, the poor people are the basic elements of their commentary. In other words, the question arises that those who are close to China's theoretical structure are not acting as China's proxy force in Nepal knowingly or unknowingly. 

In the Indian intellectual society and the media, there is a widespread comment that Nepal has gone to China's camp. Recently, Nepal selected a Chinese company to print Rs 100 notes through a global bid. It sent Indian media into a frenzy . What more did they want to add on this matter, Nepal had released its map of Lipulek, Kalapani and other areas with the support of China and today they are making comments that after giving the Chinese company to print the notes, Nepal must have gone to China's camp . But no left intellectual or any democratic intellectual has gone to the Indian media and spoken or written in English or Hindi to criticize this comment .

Very few Nepali intellectuals have got space in Indian media. But dozens of intellectuals of India give their opinion in Nepali media. 

October 2024 India and China have reached some understanding on the border dispute . Similarly, the press statement issued between India and China at the G-20 conference held in Rio, Brazil in November 2024 is also positive. Which included the resumption of direct air flight services between India and China . Due to this, there is little possibility of increasing tension between India and China for some time . But if the newly elected President Trump moves forward towards "decoupling" in accordance with his election promise to China through trade, the US will look for India's role under the pressure on China and it seems likely that India will be ready to help the US with its commercial and diaspora interests .

In this South Asian region, there are grounds that Nepal can be used in disguise in the pressure campaign against China. In this US-China confrontation, Nepal is not in a comfortable situation like during the Cold War. Because Nepal's border is connected with China, one of the opponents of today's proxy war.

Nepali people have a little 'soft corner' towards China and he will not interfere in Nepal . But since he has less interest in Nepal than India, the contact is also less . As the contact is reduced, the confrontation will be less . For example, Nepal has very little contact with Brazil. That's why there was no confrontation. 

In the national debate about whether or not the MCC project should be approved by the parliament in Nepal, it is the shadowy step that China played in the end that caused it to 'backfire' in the implementation of its BRI project. 

If the US MCC project in Nepal had been approved by the parliament, all the projects in China could have been signed easily. But due to the tug-of-war during the approval of the MCC project, the issue of Nepal's sovereignty, the issue of the arrival of the American army, and the issue that the MCC is above the Constitution of Nepal, the people of Nepal have come to the conclusion that there should be a public debate on the projects of all future powers. 

The comment that poor countries may fall into debt trap after not being able to pay after the project made with China's loan is also being buried in Nepali society . If China had allowed flights from its own country to Pokhara airport, maybe people would have been positive and sympathetic towards China today. But China did not show interest in making the flight. Charter flights only from time to time. 

The sad thing is that Nepali society today is very divided like pro-China, pro-India and pro-America. In this way, there is a feeling that Nepal is now being strongly pressured by the Indo-American lobby i.e. India-America on one side and the Chinese lobby on the other.

connectivity and high business losses 

Nepal needs to prepare what to export to China to reduce the loss of connectivity with China that is said to be received from BRI. It doesn't mean that we should build the infrastructure first and think about the object later. China is the world's only factory. Also, it is an established fact that China is the only fully export-oriented country and only exports as much as possible. China tries to reduce imports as much as possible. Nepal should keep an eye on this issue. But again we have to establish business relations with China and we have to understand China's policy well. That is why it is difficult. Diplomacy is not done by exuberance . China has also imposed a billion dollar trade deficit on America. In this situation, we are already running a high trade deficit with India. In the first 4 months of the current fiscal year 2081/82, India has a trade deficit of 281 billion rupees with Nepal.

in which Nepal has sent goods worth Rs 36 billion to India in the last four months and has imported goods worth Rs 317 billion from India. In the same way, in the last fiscal year, Nepal's import with China was 298 billion rupees, while Nepal's export to China was 2.5 billion rupees. As a result, Nepal's trade deficit with China is Rs 296 billion.

We are largely in the Indian 'sphere of influence  Or to some extent, it has become a necessity to live in the 'Chinese sphere of influence'. The issue of having a balanced relationship with both the neighbors which we have ritualistically told is like a fable. Both countries need self-reliance to conduct diplomacy in balance. It is the economy that gives that independence.  Institutions are necessary to keep the economy running. Which we have made dashasha . At the end of the

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The cooperation that is based on national self-interest has made us think a little differently from the humanity of power nations. After the merger of the UK's International Development Agency (DFAD) with the UK's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this issue has gained more importance. 

Nepal seems to have adopted a policy of non-alignment or neutrality according to the basic guiding principles of its foreign policy. But this policy dates back to the 1960s. The world has changed a lot. The environment is changing and the strategy is not always the same. Just like updating the anti-virus on the computer from time to time, we should also update it . We call ourselves non-aligned, but there is a tendency to take financial support from everyone, to send people to the Middle East for employment. It is difficult to back down after giving aid or providing employment to its citizens and not being on the side of the respective countries . For example, Nepal could not remain neutral regarding the Israel-Hamas war saying that this war is someone else's business. Because more than 4 thousand people of Nepal are employed there . From there the remittance comes . That's why because of this situation, someone's case should be involved even if they are not involved. So this non-aligned policy is not practical .