Thirty years ago, Nepal's population was 20 million. If the mortality rate and population growth rate remained the same, it was estimated that Nepal's population would reach 40 million in 27 years, i.e. in 2078.

Based on the projections at that time, Nepal's population should have reached 40 million three years ago. However, according to the 12th National Census 2078, Nepal's current population is 29.164 thousand 578.

In the 1950s, Nepal's population growth rate was 2.6 percent. According to the 2068 census, the population growth rate was 1.40 percent. According to the 2078 census, the population growth rate is 0.91 percent. Three decades ago, it was estimated that there had been an unexpected decline in the death rate. But the birth rate had not decreased.

The death rate had fallen from 27 deaths per 1,000 per year to 15 by 2052. It was estimated that the death rate had decreased due to the effects of modern antimicrobial drugs and population programs. But at that time, the state was criticized for not being able to bring effective programs to reduce the population.

The average couple had 5 to 6 children, and the population grew by about 500,000 each year. The birth rate and death rate were high in rural agricultural societies. Infant mortality was high in rural societies, and people wanted to have more children to support traditional businesses. Infant mortality in Nepal was higher than in South Asian countries. 102 people died per 1,000 newborns every year.

At that time, the number of older women was increasing faster than the number of women leaving the reproductive age. Therefore, the government estimated that the population growth rate would not decrease for a few decades. Based on the assumption that it would take 40 years for a large number of women entering the reproductive age to reach reproductive age, the birth rate was expected to remain constant.

Even if fertility was reduced to 2 children per couple, the growth rate was expected to continue for 40 years. If the efforts made at that time to reduce the fertility rate were taken as the basis, the fertility rate was projected to fall to 4 per month.

According to the documentary titled The Impact of Population Growth on Nepal's National Development produced by the 'Rapid Project' run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), if the growth rate continues at the same rate, it was estimated that Nepal's population would reach 71 million in 40 years, i.e. in 2092. The documentary, based on the National Census and Health Survey of 2048, was made under the direction of Ravi Baral. The documentary showed that the population growth rate was a challenge to Nepal's development.

If the population ratio at that time remained the same, it was estimated that 24 Nepalis would have 1 hectare of land in 40 years, i.e. by 092. At that time, it was estimated that 6 Nepalis would have 1 hectare of land. At that time, the number of children attending primary school was 2.6 million, and it was estimated that it would reach 8.8 million in 092. In the 50s, there were 71 thousand teachers for the primary level. But in 092, it was seen that 328 thousand teachers would be required.

The number of nurses was 2,800, while the government had allocated an annual budget of 600 million for health services. 43 percent of the total population was under the age of 15, and the country's largest resource was to be spent on health, education, and nutrition for them. Whereas, 30 years ago, only 20 percent of children in developed countries were under the age of 15.

Focusing on the population growth rate and estimates, infant mortality and mortality rates in Nepal, Kantipur Daily published a news story on Magh 7, 2052, titled 'This is how Nepal's population is growing'. But now it is found that there is a lot of difference in all the estimates made at that time. That is, infant mortality and birth rates have decreased. Due to this, the estimate of population growth rate has completely failed.