The price of international benchmark Brent crude oil fell 11 percent on the news of the Iran-US talks. Brent crude, which had traded at a high of $109.87 per barrel on Tuesday, traded at an international low of $97.48 per barrel on Wednesday. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11.3 percent to $90.74 per barrel.

“There is growing hope that the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. Tehran may not even collect taxes from ships passing through it. But it may take months for ship traffic to return to normal and trade to pick up speed,” David Morrison, senior market analyst at British company Trade Nations, told the Guardian. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a shortage of basic commodities in the global market, including crude oil, natural gas, chemical fertilizers, petrochemicals (plastics/packaging), and electronic components. The United Nations World Food Program has warned that the chemical fertilizer crisis in the Asian market will soon increase food insecurity and hunger.

Recent statements by US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps indicate that the two countries are close to an agreement. With this, the world may be saved from a major crisis. The US has prepared a one-page, 14-point document proposal to end the war with Iran, according to the American media outlet Axios. The Axios news report states that US Ambassador to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner have discussed the document directly and through intermediaries with Iranian officials.

In a conversation with Axios, two US officials said that a new framework for a comprehensive nuclear agreement will be prepared after the war ends. Axios said that two more sources familiar with the incident confirmed this. Axios analyzed that both sides are close to an agreement. 'No agreement has been reached on anything yet. But this is the first time the two sides have come this close to an agreement to end the war,' Axios reported. The report said that the agreement could include Iran suspending its nuclear enrichment program and the US releasing Iran's frozen assets. Similarly, the report said that the Strait of Hormuz was proposed to be gradually loosened and fully opened within 30 days.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during a press briefing at the White House that the war with Iran was over. Similarly, US President Donald Trump said on the social media platform Truth that the war could end if Iran agreed to the US proposal. However, he also warned that the US would attack again if Iran did not accept the conditions.

During the press briefing, Rubio said that the priority now is to ensure the unhindered movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. He said that not all agreements can be reached in one day. 'We don't have to make all the agreements in one day,' he said, 'This is a very difficult and technical issue. But we have to find a diplomatic solution.’ Rubio also accused some of Iran’s top leaders of being stupid. He also said that it was unclear whether they would negotiate or not.

Earlier, on the orders of US President Trump, the US military launched ‘Operation Freedom’ on Monday to open the Strait of Hormuz. According to which, the US military would escort commercial ships passing through Hormuz. Iran condemned the move and said that it would attack ships trying to pass through Hormuz. However, on Tuesday, Trump announced that the operation was suspended, citing good progress in talks with Iran.

Iran has responded positively after the announcements of Trump and Rubio. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on social media that Hormuz would be opened with new standards after the US threat and language of aggression stopped. The IRGC thanked the captains and owners of the ships for following Iran’s rules during the movement.

Iran has been blocking the Strait of Hormuz since the US attacked Iran on February 28. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have continued despite a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8. After two days of direct talks failed, US President Trump ordered the US Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz on April 12. He ordered commercial oil tankers passing through Iranian ports to be searched and taken action. Since then, there has been a double blockade on Hormuz.

The more than two-month-long blockade on the route that supplies about 20 percent of the world's crude oil and gas has severely affected the oil trade of countries in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Similarly, there has been a crisis of oil, natural gas, and chemical fertilizers worldwide. Iran's economy has also been badly affected by the US blockade.

Although both sides say that the ceasefire is in place, they have deployed soldiers in the waters of the Arabian Sea to put pressure on each other. In the past few weeks, the two countries have been trying to negotiate and have been at odds. In the last week of April, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also visited Islamabad for talks. At that time, the US was preparing to send West Asia envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad. However, after Iran said it would not hold direct talks, Trump announced that their visit was canceled at the last minute. The US had claimed that seven Iranian naval boats had been sunk just last Monday. Condemning the incident, Iran accused the US of attacking a boat carrying civilians, not naval personnel.

What is in the proposal?

The latest US proposal includes declaring an end to the war and suspending Iran's nuclear program, US officials told Axios. The US expects Iran to agree to the proposal within 48 hours. The final signing of the agreement could take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, or Geneva, Switzerland, according to sources. Axios reported that three sources gave different information on the proposal for uranium enrichment.

According to two sources, the agreement states that it will be suspended for at least 12 years. One source claimed that a 15-year deadline has been set. Earlier, Iran had demanded that the nuclear program be suspended for 5 years and the United States for 20 years. According to the source, after the suspension period ends, Iran can enrich uranium at a low rate of 3.67 percent. Experts have been saying that uranium enrichment at this level would be limited to energy purposes only and would not be used to make nuclear weapons, so there would be no risk.

Trump was in favor of ending the war even before his visit to China

On Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. During that meeting, Yi said that a comprehensive ceasefire was needed immediately. “Continuation of hatred is unacceptable and both sides need to commit to maintaining consensus and dialogue,” Yi said.

President Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing on May 14 and 15 to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Before that, Trump wants to end the war with Iran. “The war in Iran does not end, which means that the US is losing its grip on negotiations with Beijing,” the American media outlet CNN wrote on Monday, citing sources.

“Trump’s visit is not like other presidents. Trump’s tenure seems to have a great impact on the world order, and he has already changed the way America views its interests,” a Chinese official told CNN. “The success or failure of his visit will have a long-term impact on China-US relations. Regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans come to power after this, the meaning of this visit will be important.”

Although China wants to reach an agreement with the US on many issues, the Iran crisis has created a serious obstacle to China’s plans and expectations, Cui Hongjian, an international affairs scholar at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told CNN. “China has a clear foreign policy stance: China-US relations are important. If China-US relations are stable, it will also stabilize or make China's relations with other countries better than before,” Cui told CNN, “but it was difficult for Beijing when its close ally Iran came in the way of China-US relations.”

Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor of West and Central Asian politics at Deakin University in Australia, said it was difficult to determine exactly why Trump chose to end the war against the backdrop of growing public anger against the war in the United States. Consumers had been hurt by the price hikes seen in the US market for gasoline and essential goods. Earlier, during a parliamentary hearing last week, Secretary of State for War Pete Hegseth said that the US had spent $25 billion during the Iran war. He claimed that the bulk of the expenditure was on weapons and equipment maintenance. However, Democratic lawmakers and US economists claimed that the cost would be much higher when including the price hikes suffered by the American people and the impact on the economy.