The process to select the next secretary-general of the United Nations has seen an unusually limited competition this time. Compared to the open and spirited competition between 13 candidates in 2016, only four candidates have now come forward for formal presentations. 

According to analysts, the shrinkage is not just a coincidence, but a direct indication of the increasing polarization in world politics, diplomatic risks and the weakening multilateral system. The current secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, ends his term on December 31. 

As part of the process to select his successor, four candidates will present their views to member states at the UN General Assembly. In order of presentation, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet will give the first 'audition'.

Then, Rafael Mariano Grossi of Argentina, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency,  Rebecca Greenspan, an economist from Costa Rica and head of UNCTAD, and finally, Macky Sall, former president of Senegal, will give their views. The main reason behind the decline in the number of candidates this time is the deepening polarization of world politics.

A decade ago, international cooperation was relatively easy, which encouraged many candidates to compete. But now, due to growing distrust between powerful countries such as the United States, China and Russia, participating in such a competition has become diplomatically risky. 

According to analysts, becoming a candidate is now not only a matter of prestige, but also a sensitive decision that could deteriorate relations between powerful countries if the wrong message is sent. The perception that the effectiveness of the United Nations is declining is also another reason for the decline in the number of candidates. 

The organization, which played an active role in the areas of climate change, sustainable development and economic cooperation a decade ago, now seems unable to intervene effectively in conflicts such as Ukraine, Gaza and Iran. The main reason for this is disagreements among the permanent members of the Security Council and the use of veto power, which has repeatedly blocked the decision-making process. 

Although the formal decision on the selection of the Secretary-General is made by the General Assembly, the real power lies with the five permanent members of the Security Council, the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. If any of them disagree, the candidate could fail. 

This is why balanced diplomacy is so important for candidates. The nomination process for candidates has also been complicated this time. Bachelet was initially supported by Chile, Brazil and Mexico. But after a change of government in Chile, support was withdrawn, and now only Brazil and Mexico have proposed her nomination. Grossi and Greenspan have been proposed by their own countries. 

Although Macky Sall was proposed by Burundi, his home country Senegal has not formally supported him. Meanwhile, the competition has narrowed further after the withdrawal of the candidacy of Argentine diplomat Virginia Gamba.

The question of gender representation is also at the center of this year's debate. Although two female candidates are participating in this competition, the demand for a woman to be elected as Secretary-General is still strong.