‘Are you also Balen’s people?’ 50-year-old Pavitra Dhimal, who was met in front of the View Tower in the much-hyped Damak-3 area of ​​Jhapa, asked at the beginning. Her question alone told us how much interest there is in Balendra Shah in Jhapa. The ‘field visits’ being conducted by Balendra and the entire Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) to understand the mood of the voters have also increased the interest of the locals. In the meantime, many surveys have been conducted.

‘They come with pens, notebooks, and computers (tabs) to understand the hustle and bustle. Most of them first ask who they will vote for after talking about various things,’ Dhimal told Kantipur. ‘Will you ask the same question?’

When talking to party workers, she feels hesitant about who will say what. But when she says that we are journalists, she says that she is thinking about choosing a new candidate this time. As the conversation continues, she says more openly, ‘Many are calling Balen a good candidate. He has made the dirty places of Kathmandu better, why not make it better here? Everyone in my family has thought of voting for him.’

She says that some relatives have been trying to trick her by telling her that she should vote for former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. ‘Even in my own family, they say that she should vote for Ba (Oli),’ she said. ‘I have said that I will give it to the new one.’

In the parliamentary elections held three years ago, UML Chairman Oli got the highest number of votes in the country from Jhapa-5. He won with 52,319 votes, while his rival Khagendra Pandav Adhikari of the Nepali Congress had 23,743 votes. The talk of Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor and senior leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Balendra Shah coming to compete with Oli, who won by a margin of 28,576 votes, has heated up Jhapa even in the cold of Magh.

The UML, which considers Jhapa-5 as its strongest stronghold, is only turning towards the elections, but Balendra and the RSS have already sent several teams. Even now, a team including Balendra's assistant personal secretary Naveen Bhandari is in Jhapa-5. The RSS has rented a house in Damak-3 for the election campaign.

‘As at least 45 people are staying here for the election preparations of our senior leader Balendra Shah, we are looking for three houses,’ says Prakash Pathak, President of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Jhapa. ‘One of them has been finalized, and 15 of his friends will live in it. We are looking for houses for the rest on the same basis.’  

A team including Pathak came to Kathmandu on 10th December to meet Balendra. Recounting the meeting in Jwagal, he said, ‘In that meeting, he clearly stated that he would contest the election against former Prime Minister Oli from Jhapa-5, and preparations are intensifying accordingly.’

Balendra is scheduled to resign from the post of mayor on 15th January and address a meeting in Janakpur two days later. After that, he will reach Jhapa-5 to register his candidacy. Why is he going to far-eastern Jhapa, bypassing his ancestral district of Mahottari to contest the mayoral election of Kathmandu? Balendra's former personal secretary and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) joint general secretary Bhupdev Shah says, "We have tried to establish an agenda of change by defeating those who oppressed and killed young youth in the Gen-G movement in their respective constituencies."

In the first House of Representatives election held in 2048 after the restoration of democracy, UML's young general secretary Madan Bhandari had taken his and the party's reputation to the international level by defeating the then Prime Minister, Congress acting president and potential prime ministerial candidate Krishna Prasad Bhattarai in Kathmandu-1.

Balendra is now going there to repeat the same history, establish himself as an undisputed national leader, and draw attention to the party's cause across the country with the Jhapa election. At that time, Bhandari was only 39 years old, while Bhattarai was 67. Balendra is now 36 years old, while Oli is more than two years older.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) District Secretary Shambhu Prasad Dhakal was also in the team that came to Kathmandu to meet Balendra. He claims that voters will vote for him as Balendra is a 'brand' of recent Nepali politics and potential. Stating that there is no need for citizens to hold their noses in Kathmandu after Balendra became mayor, he said, 'Balen has already shown potential there. He knows the geography of the country and the potential. Voters have understood this well. Moreover, Jhapa is also the district with the most active members of the RSSP after Chitwan.'

Voters who always say that Oli's victory is certain before the election have started analyzing the possibility of a different result this time. 'Oli is very strong here. No old leader can defeat him,' said Ram Prasad Koirala, a voter from Damak-9 who was met at Damak Chowk, 'But, new generation leaders like Ballen can defeat him, can bring about turmoil. It is not an exaggeration to say so.'

Oli is not undefeated in Jhapa. He has represented Jhapa in the parliament six times, in 2048, 2051, 2056, 2070, 2074 and 2079. In 2064, Maoist candidate Bishwadeep Lingden defeated him by a margin of about 1,200 votes.

Damak.

He won by a larger margin in 2074 than in the 2079 election. While Oli got 57,139 votes, Congress officials got 28,297 votes. In the last election, Oli won by a margin of 28,842 votes, while Suresh Kumar Pokharel of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) came third with 11,748 votes.

In the proportional representation, the RSS got 18,205 votes. But the talk of Balendra's candidacy has already put the old candidates on the defensive, Koirala claims. 'So far, Balen has not come here, voters have only heard of him in the media. There is so much enthusiasm, what will the atmosphere be like when he starts going door to door tomorrow?’ He says, ‘Right now, the issue of Balen is being discussed in every house.’

About 10,000 new voters are in Jhapa-5, which has a total of 163,379 voters. Most of the young voters we met did not openly speak in favor of Oli. Older voters say they will vote for former Prime Minister Oli. ‘We need a leader who will develop, save the country and love the district. The previous movement was a foreigner’s maneuver, we need the son of the country,’ said Tularam Bastola (72), who was met at the Damak taxi stand. ‘Anyone can get the nomination papers, but Oli is the one who will win.’

87-year-old Taranidhi Sapkota of Kirat Chowk, Damak Municipality-8, said that even if a candidate from outside the local area wins, he will not do anything. ‘I have voted in many elections, I understand that outsiders cannot do anything,’ he said, ‘In fact, many people could not understand Oli. It is very sad that a child died, but did the Prime Minister kill him?’ 

Most of the voters between the ages of 18 and 35 who were found in various places in Jhapa-5 on Wednesday and Thursday seemed to be in the mood to do something new this time. However, some doubt that Balendra will win. ‘KP Bale will win, but this time I will not only vote for Balendra Shah, but I will also go door to door asking for votes,’ says Samjhana Baral (33), ‘I was a supporter of the Nepali Congress, but I had been voting for Oli as the Prime Minister’s candidate. This time, my vote will go to Balen.’

Baral complains that nothing has been done even after voting for Oli repeatedly. ‘The View Tower and two or three roads may have been built, but if a shopping center opens in the same View Tower, where will the money to buy goods come from?’ She says, ‘There are no employment opportunities, nothing will happen if Bale wins again.’

Ishwori Gautam of Kamal Rural Municipality-2 expressed a different opinion. ‘I have always grown up under the umbrella of UML. But this time I have decided not to vote. But it is difficult to even meet outside candidates, the people there understand the local problems. That is why I see Balen having a hard time,’ he said, ‘The people also know Balen, after becoming mayor in Kathmandu, he even banned people from meeting him. That is why the situation is not uncomfortable for Oli.’

UML leaders say that meeting people with Oli was easy and that the work he did in Jhapa-5 when he was the prime minister was enough for victory. ‘When Oli was the prime minister, the planning in the Damak area was in full swing. Voters have a good understanding of who to choose,' says UML Damak Nagar Chairman Ram Poudel, 'Voters do not repeat that mistake because they understand how much trouble it caused when another candidate won once.' Some locals said that Oli himself sometimes called them. 'If Balen was a resident of this place, the situation could have been different, but who would vote for someone who comes from Kathmandu for a few days?' Sunita Adhikari, 30, who was met on Beldangi Road, said, 'Balen may be a good person personally, but if we have a problem tomorrow, can we meet him?'

UML supporters claim that no one has thought of an alternative to him since Oli brought a wave of development to Jhapa-5. They say that a lot of work has been done, from the construction of the Damak View Tower to roads. Young voters, however, say that most of such plans are stalled. ‘There are those who say who else will bring as many plans as Oli has brought to Damak, but has anyone thought about how much work has been done on those plans?’ Parbat Basnet (25) asks, ‘I especially like the plans he has put forward, but all the work is stalled.’ Basnet was active in the Gen-G movement.

The plan to build a theater targeting the youth in Damak has been stalled for years, and instead, Oli has taken the initiative to build a view tower that will not yield any results. He says that the comment that no one else except Oli can bring the budget is wrong. ‘Has Jhapa-5 given an opportunity to anyone else except Oli?’ He says, ‘Since Balen is also a candidate for the Prime Minister, voters do not need to worry about this issue.’

The Damak commercial building, which is much touted as the country’s tallest view tower, was built on Oli’s initiative, but it has not been fully operational. The 18-story building was vandalized during the Gen-G movement. Similarly, although there have been attempts to build a ‘Tribal Stadium’ in Kamal Rural Municipality-5, Geuriya since 2066, it has been stalled due to a name dispute. The then Defense Minister Bidya Bhandari had laid the foundation stone for the ‘Tribal Stadium’ in Baisakh 2067 on the land used as a burial ground by the tribals. However, when he was the Prime Minister in 2072, Oli had changed the name of the stadium and allocated a budget in the name of ‘Madan Bhandari Stadium’. However, the tribals opposed it. The Congress also did not support the proposal to change the name. After it was not possible to proceed with the construction there, Oli later announced that the stadium would be built on the land of Damak-3, Hanse-Dumse Community Forest. However, that too is stalled.

Gen-G youths, from left to right: Anil Chhetri, Shubham Sigdel and Parbat Basnet.

Oli had laid the foundation stone on 17 Shrawan 2076, saying that he would build a Nepal-China friendly industrial park in Damak with an investment of Rs 64.9 billion. But the work has not progressed yet. Plans to make Damak a model city and build the largest hall in the province in Damak are stalled. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is preparing to launch a campaign against Oli by making these issues its agenda. 

Sugam Sigdel (19), who is also the instigator of the Gen-G movement in Damak, claims that voters are disappointed with UML Chairman Oli. ‘In the past, Oli used to win when parties did not give voters a capable candidate option, but that is not the case this time. Voters do not hesitate to vote when they get an option like Balendra,’ he says.

He is studying BBS at Damak Multiple Campus and says that Gen-G members of every household are urging their parents to vote for Balendra. "We need a candidate like Balen against corruption by introducing many policies, the voters of Jhapa-5 are ready to welcome him," he says, "The mandate after the Gen-G movement also means that young people should come, and on top of that, it is a matter of luck for Damak to have Balen, the future Prime Minister of the country, as a candidate."

UML Damak City President Poudel claims that the voters of Jhapa-5 have always stood in favor of Oli on the ballot paper, regardless of which party they are affiliated to. "There will be no problem if Balen comes, there are stable voters in favor of Oli," he said, "We do not even consider Balen as a major competitor. In the past, there was a competition with the Congress, and this time too, there will be a competition with the Congress candidate." This time, the names of Oli's former rival Khagendra Pandav Adhikari, Aindra Bikram Kerung, Padam Bahadur Poudel, Mandara Chimaria, Devi Prasad Dahal, Medani Sitaula and Siram Karki have been recommended by the Congress.

Looking at the past elections, even though Oli has a hold on Jhapa, he has been coordinating with the RPP to ensure victory. In the 2074 election, when Rajendra Lingden won from Jhapa-3 as the lone MP from the RPP, there was coordination with the UML.

In the last election too, there was a formal coordination between the UML and the RPP. When Lingden won from Jhapa-3 after defeating Congress leader Krishna Prasad Sitaula for the second time, Oli won Jhapa-5 with confidence. Local UML leaders claim that there will be coordination between the UML and the RPP in Jhapa this time too. Meanwhile, on 23 Poush, UML Chairman Oli and RPP Chairman Lingden also met in the capital.

RPP leader Ram Thapa is the mayor of Damak Municipality. However, the RPP had formed an alliance with the Congress and others in the local level elections. RPP Jhapa District Chairman Keshav Ojha says that there was no discussion about the alliance this time. ‘Lakshmi Sangraula and Gopal Poudel have been recommended from Jhapa-5, we are in favor of not forming an alliance at all,’ he says. 

This time, the Hark Sampang-led Shram Sanskriti Party is likely to be a big challenge for alternative forces in many constituencies in the east, including Jhapa-5. Sampang, who is also the mayor of Dharan, has been making statements targeting Balendra. Sampang, who has been saying that he will defeat Balen no matter where he stands, wrote on social media on Thursday evening, ‘We will defeat both KP Oli and Balen in Jhapa-5, no matter how much confusion there is, your confusion will not last for a second after I come and speak.’ 

Shram Sanskriti Party spokesperson Satya Ghale says that they are preparing to field party joint general secretary Sameer Tamang as a candidate in Jhapa-5. ‘Dharan Mayor Saab is also saying, whoever Oli or Balen is, we will defeat him,’ he told Kantipur, ‘Shram Sanskriti Party will not ally with anyone.’ 

The votes of the indigenous people are crucial in Jhapa-5. Suresh Kumar Pokharel, who was a candidate from Jhapa-5 in the previous election from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), says, ‘The situation will naturally be different when Balen stands up and when we stand up, but in Jhapa-5, the votes of the indigenous people including Rai, Limbu and others are also important to win the election.’

Recalling that he had campaigned with a microphone even when the party was not present, he said, ‘This time, I will also support him when he comes.’ Jhapa-5 includes Damak Municipality and Kamal Rural Municipality. Similarly, Wards No. 1 to 8 of Gauradaha Municipality and Wards No. 3, 4, 5 and 6 of Gauriganj Rural Municipality are also included. One-third of the voters in this area are indigenous. 

Some voters who are in favor of Balen consider his candidacy risky due to the wide margin of votes seen in the past. Ganesh Prasad Gautam of Damak-1, affiliated with Jeevanchakram Samaj Nepal, says, ‘Voters are looking for alternatives because the older generation has disappointed them, but this is an election field, there is a wide margin of votes. That is why it seems like there will be intense competition. It may not be easy to stand up here like in Kathmandu. Our wish is for Balen to win.’