There are signs that the political scenario of Nepal is moving towards upheaval again.

The foreign minister's statement after his visit to India, Ravi Lamichhane's call for movement, possible US Nepal policy, the risk of being on the "grey list" in money laundering cases, the cut of aid from foreign donors, the questions raised about the republic and the Maoist people's war in India, the activism of the former king and the growing activity of the monarchists are signs that Nepal's politics is heading towards a complicated mode. The question of whether these developments will lead Nepal to stability or push it back into the quagmire of instability has created a deep interest in the public mind.

After the foreign minister said that India does not want to change the government of Nepal, even if there is some stability, it seems that India's influence will remain in the long run. India has a long history of intervention in Nepal, whether it was during the 2062/63 agitation or bringing the Maoists into the peace process. Ravi Lamichhane, on the other hand, has asked the people to be ready for agitation, which reflects dissatisfaction with the existing system. However, if the movement does not have a clear direction and strategy, it is likely to be limited to an emotional wave. A serious discussion is needed on whether the movement will bring stability or increase instability.

With the return of Donald Trump in the US, there has also been an increase in the interest in Nepal's policy. It is alleged that although the assistance that came through USAID during his first term was for the implementation of federalism, a large part of it was lost in corruption and irregularities. If the US cuts or tightens its aid, Nepal's economic stability may be affected. Likewise, Nepal is at risk of being on the 'grey list', which will reduce foreign investment, hinder trade and deepen the economic crisis. This risk is increasing due to corruption and unaccountable leadership in Nepal, which can make our journey to prosperity difficult.

Former king Gyanendra's recent activism, the honor given to him in Bhutan, the expressions of Indian leaders and the growing movement of royalists in Nepal have sparked a new debate about republicanism. Despite resentments towards the republic, is the return of the monarchy the solution? Many countries in the world have achieved prosperity by strengthening the democratic system, but there is concern that Nepal is trying to go back to the past.
It is still not clear who is cooking Nepal's political khichdi and what its final form will be. Such developments can destabilize the country, if not thought through in the right direction. The Nepalese people should choose the path of dialogue over agitation, good governance over laxity, and self-reliant economy over dependence. The way forward should not be chaos, but understanding, good governance and prosperity. Our future is in our own hands – making the right decisions is what is needed now.

- Santosh Simkhada , Tokyo, Japan