Nepal has a single and comfortable majority government. Therefore, it is natural to expect that the decision-making capacity, its chain of command will be significantly shortened, and the implementation capacity will also improve – Beijing. The ninth anniversary of the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is approaching . Therefore, at this time, China-Nepal relations are at a crucial juncture for continuity and unexpected results . The two countries have been conducting several policy coordination and cooperation in the fields of trade, investment, energy development, etc. . In addition, significant progress has been made in the construction of dry ports in the border areas . These progress are the foundation . And, it is also evidence that several projects have already provided concrete results . However, if we look at the main infrastructure and connectivity projects, their pace is very slow . On the ground, those specific issues have not been able to take shape . And, for that, while coordination challenges are still there, the complex external environment also stands as a major obstacle . These realities have further tested the depth of bilateral cooperation and partnership.

The new government in Kathmandu seems to have launched a ‘development diplomacy’ strategy. The ruling party leaders have come to the conclusion that Nepal can transform from a traditional ‘buffer state’ between China and India to a ‘living bridge’. This shows that the Balen-led government has a realistic perspective. This political understanding not only reflects Nepal’s current needs for economic development, but also presents new policy opportunities for BRI cooperation. Can this new scenario effectively overcome the previous obstacles? And, can it put BRI cooperation on a ‘fast track’ so that it can achieve qualitative improvements? The current development of bilateral relations depends on the answer to that. And, that is also the most complex issue of concern at the moment.

New environment, new test

By winning a comfortable majority in parliament, the National Independent Party (NIP) has ended a long-standing political fluidity and division in Nepal. This has shown the possibility of many essential policy stability and concrete expectations on the ground. This is the most valuable dividend for long-term cooperation projects right now. Beijing naturally expects that after the formation of a single and comfortable majority government, the decision-making capacity and its chain of decisions will be significantly shortened and the implementation capacity will be significantly improved.

The high expectations publicly set by the NIP government for economic development attract even more in that direction. During the election campaign, the NIP promised to achieve an annual economic growth rate of more than 7 percent, create 1.2 million new jobs within five years, and make anti-corruption and improved governance the main principles of its governance philosophy. It can be said that the latest wave of people's enthusiasm has brought about the latest wave.

As an international election observer, I had the opportunity to closely understand the state of mind of some Nepali voters in the Falgun 21 general elections. A young man I spoke to in Jhapa-5, which is at the center of the electoral competition, had stayed in Nepal to vote by changing his ticket to return to the UAE. He did not have very high expectations from this election. He wanted the environment of having to stay in the Gulf heat to eat two meals a day and give his children a basic education to end. In his representative story, I saw a huge gap between Nepal's potential and reality.

In the more than a decade and a half since I came to Nepal, I have never seen a huge wave of job creation here. Apart from government jobs that open up for a few hundred a year, and the employment of a few thousand more through banks and financial institutions and NGOs, the labor sector in Nepal has not been able to expand in a way that will bring about a major transformation. If there is a lack of confidence among the youth for entrepreneurship, instead of expanding, the competitive production market is shrinking. Development and infrastructure development work does not seem to be a campaign. Only through big thinking, bold leadership that takes risks and competitive production can millions of Nepalis currently working abroad for a living be brought back to the country. Nepal, which is missing out on the demographic dividend, has an opportunity to make a decision now. BRI is the best answer for that.

Expectations like those of the youth I met in Jhapa will ultimately be tied to the results given by the Nepal government. Apart from parliamentary mathematics, will the reality that is developing amidst such expectations give or weaken the government? Now it will begin to be measured. The government will now have to make a big leap to fulfill its promises and commitments and to fulfill the dreams of millions of youth who expect a revolutionary leap from this government. For this, they should take advantage of external resources and high-quality international assistance. China is a key natural partner as Nepal's second largest trading partner, a stable friendly relationship and a major source of investment.

Kathmandu's immediate reaffirmation of its commitment to the One China policy and its intention to pursue pragmatic development diplomacy with the formation of the new government is a reflection of the ongoing strength of the relationship. It marks a welcome beginning in China-Nepal relations. That response has addressed perceived external concerns in Kathmandu's foreign policy and removed political obstacles to pragmatic cooperation between the two sides.

The new government appears to have positioned its relationship with China within the broader framework of the country's economic development and infrastructure construction. That is clearly in line with the intention of transforming Nepal into a 'dynamic bridge' between China and India. That situation breaks the traditional narrative of a 'buffer state' and provides a new policy opportunity and legitimacy for connectivity projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Enhanced opportunities

China's role in Nepal's economy is increasingly important. The growth of China-Nepal trade in recent years is a clear reflection of this. China's direct investment in Nepal is focused on sectors such as energy, transportation and cross-border ports, where sufficient resources have already been secured. Nepal is rich in hydropower resources. Chinese companies have already done important work by joining several hydropower projects here. This can not only increase Nepal's energy security but also be used in large-scale trans-Himalayan electricity trade. In that sense, the northern market is unlimited for Nepal, where China's western provinces are located. Nepal can take the cooperation to a new level by providing stable and green energy to those regions.

China's support in the livelihood and agriculture sectors will prove to be a boon. China's experience in poverty alleviation is of such a nature that it can be useful for Nepal. Moreover, with the new opportunity for technology transfer, this work can now be done rapidly with China. China has countless successful practices in poverty alleviation and rural infrastructure development, which will be relevant to Nepal based on the common Eastern philosophy and context. Several bilateral agricultural cooperation projects have already been implemented in Nepal and their progress is encouraging.

The huge wave of Chinese tourists traveling around the world in their millions can further support Nepal's tourism industry. Even more promising is the potential for cooperation in emerging new areas. Technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), drones and robotics have opportunities for widespread use in Nepal. They will help in agriculture-disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, mountain transportation and smart city development at an unprecedented level. With years of study and investment, China is at the forefront of these fields in the world.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) government seems to have given high priority to technological innovation and youth entrepreneurship. Therefore, this is a fresh opportunity to take China-Nepal cooperation to new heights by maintaining high-quality development cooperation along the lines of the BRI. This will empower Nepal to make the most of technology while strengthening its economic and social development.

Time to remove remaining obstacles

To truly take the BRI into a higher gear, it seems that three long-standing obstacles need to be broken.

First, geopolitical overreach. Nepal will not be able to see the bigger picture in the current world by adopting the concept of a ‘buffer state’. Strategic diplomacy as a ‘living bridge’ with a sense of national interest and sovereignty is the appropriate independent identity for Nepal. Beijing, a constant supporter of that spirit, believes that the new government’s clear direction has opened up new space for China-Nepal cooperation. Both sides need determination and courage at the political level at this time. Mutual benefit and a win-win outcome should be sought. For that, respecting each other's core interests and turning geopolitical sensitivities into practical opportunities for regional connectivity is the appropriate way.

Second, Nepal also needs to avoid falling into the traps of perceptions that are being created by some. For a long time, issues such as debt risks and technological security have been deliberately shown to scare the Nepali leadership and the public. This has created an 'information cocoon' in which only negative stories about China are deliberately shown.

The new government's emphasis on anti-corruption and transparency is consistent with China's concept of promoting the 'Clean Silk Road' and the 'Green Silk Road'. Through rigorous project audits, joint risk-bearing mechanisms, and self-management, both sides can create a more objective and impartial public opinion environment for China-linked cooperation. And, they can also break the dominance of external discourse.

Third, is the management of expectations. Large and cross-border infrastructure projects have long construction cycles and phases. And, they require large investments. Both sides must have a strong determination and vision for long-term planning. Expecting quick returns may not be realistic in the current situation. Both sides need to avoid cheap trends of seeking quick profits. China, on its part, should continue to provide financial solutions, capacity building, and technology transfer assistance based on bilateral agreements. Because of these works, those projects will truly be strengthened from the ground up and benefit local communities.