On the morning of 1 Jestha 2079, the counting of votes in Kathmandu Metropolitan City had just begun. The organization I work for, the Global Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies, was analyzing election data from various angles. In this context, I was invited to conduct a statistical analysis of the election on the program Yaksha Prashan, hosted by journalist Rajendra Baniya on Himalaya TV.

By the time the interview was recorded, mayoral candidate Balen Shah had less than 2,000 votes. The difference between his closest rival and him was only a few hundred votes.

In that interview, I had predicted that Balen would win the election if the Internet were converted into popularity votes. We had analyzed the status of all three mayoral candidates through Google Trends. Balen, who was not included in Google Trends even before the announcement of his candidacy, was highly searched for a few days before the election and on the day of the election. Further basis for this prediction was given to me by the book ‘Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are’ written by Google data scientist Seth Stephen Davidovich, which I read some time ago. The book describes the prediction that Barack Obama would win the 2008 US presidential election based on Google Trends data. As expected, a young rapper with no party affiliation and unknown to many people has won the mayoral post of the capital city, home to the most educated, wealthy and dominant class in Nepal. The influential new party, the National Independent Party, is now preparing to present the same mayor of the capital, Balen Shah, as its future prime ministerial candidate and is preparing to enter the upcoming general election.

‘Populists and Populism’

According to journalist Sudhir Sharma’s YouTube video ‘Ravi Balen: What Happens When They Meet’, Balen Shah is currently the most popular figure in Nepal according to a poll conducted by a foreign embassy. His popularity is so widespread that people call Kathmandu ‘Balen City’. His photos are found everywhere, from the walls of houses to public vehicles. More than 3.2 million people follow him on the social network Facebook alone. Is Balen, as popular as many people say, also a ‘populist’ politician? 

In Latin, ‘Populus’ means ‘the people’. In 1891, the movement started by farmers in the American state of Kansas was called ‘Populist’. On its foundation, a new party was born—the American People’s Party. Since the party’s name included ‘people’, the party was called the Populist Party or ‘Populist’, and the word became established in politics. The ‘Populist’ movement opposed the monopoly of railroad owners and the high interest rates of banks, demanding directly elected senators, nationalization of railways, and progressive taxation.

In the subsequent elections, the Populist Party won a good number of votes, and even won 8 seats in the US Congress. But later, after supporting the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, the party fell into internal strife and disintegrated completely in 1909.

Perhaps because politics that draws a clear line between the elite rulers and the common people was called 'populist' in history, politics that calls everyone else corrupt is still known as 'populism'. 'Populist' politicians claim that they are the only ones who can change the totalitarian rule imposed on the people by the alliance of corrupt rulers, bureaucracy, and the rich. They attack others except their supporters with words like cheaters, thieves, and scoundrels. In the 'populist' view, there are either 'good people' or 'bad elites' in society. There are either enemies or friends. The complexity in between is unacceptable. Just as Donald Trump called his supporters 'true people' and others 'unimportant' in 2016. Doing politics by polarizing society in this way is another job of 'populist' politicians.

Often, ‘populist’ leaders come to power not through traditional party politics, but through their charismatic personalities. Donald Trump was once a television host, while Italy’s Veppe Grillo was a stand-up comedian. Spitting hatred against opponents, using abusive language, launching personal attacks, and disregarding political decency are other common characteristics of ‘populist’ politicians. 

In recent years, social media has been crucial in the rise and spread of ‘populist’ leaders around the world. Donald Trump’s admission that ‘if I weren’t on Twitter, I probably wouldn’t be here’ while sitting in the White House confirms this. Similarly, Narendra Modi is known as the world’s most successful Facebook politician. Modi is often accused of using a troll army on social media to undermine his opponents. 

Often, ‘populist’ leaders present complex social and political problems in a very light-hearted manner. They do not provide a structural framework for solving the problem, but rather say that they are sincerely engaged in solving the problem through emotional appeals. For example, while Hugo Chavez of Venezuela used to talk about ‘distributing wealth’ to the poor, New York Mayor Zohrab Mamdani is talking about ‘opening fair-price stores’ in New York City.

Balen on the ‘populist path’

Comparing Balen’s character traits, methods of rise and public style with those of populist politicians around the world, there is no hesitation in saying that he is a ‘populist’ politician. Balen’s rise in Nepali politics did not occur through traditional political parties, but on the basis of the fame he earned through music. In his songs like ‘Desko raksha ghar jati saab..... chhan, neta jati saab chor desh luti khanchan’, all leaders and employees are branded as thieves and robbers. He not only vents his anger mixed with accusations against others, he also claims that only he can solve the problem. Stating that he did not vote in the 2074 election and will vote for himself in the next election, he wrote on Facebook— ‘I know how to build a country. I will develop my country myself. I do not depend on anyone else’ (May 14, 2017). He hangs a map of Greater Nepal in the office, and without presenting a solution to Nepal’s geopolitical complexities, he easily writes emotional things— ‘When will Nepal become independent? When will we establish our existence?’ (April 8, 2023). In addition, Balen’s abstract and short sentences like ‘I want to see Kathmandu revived like this.’ (Setopati, Jestha 11, 2079), ‘I want to see Nepal laugh’ (December 29, 2025) are beautiful, but he neither gives a concrete roadmap on how Kathmandu will be revived? Or how Nepal will become a laughing country, nor does he allow questions to be asked about it. Even after becoming a part of the establishment,

Another characteristic of a ‘populist’ leader is that he considers himself anti-establishment. When he hears the talk of ‘building a wall’ in America and the threat of ‘burning down the Singha Durbar’ in Nepal, it seems the same.

Another common characteristic of ‘populists’ is their distrust of institutions established for the operation of a democratic state, such as the courts, media, and administration. They are not very interested in the subject matter expertise and evidence of others. Balen’s similar distrustful behavior towards the Chief Administrative Officer of Kathmandu Metropolitan City highlights this tendency.

A field of discontent

Nepal today stands shoulder to shoulder with the challenges of four centuries. Untouchability, which was almost eradicated in the 20th century in developed countries (at one time in America, black people had to sit only in the last seat reserved for them when traveling on buses), is still prevalent here. Our agricultural and industrial productivity is still at the level of developed countries three centuries ago. When it comes to human resource development, our universities lag far behind in knowledge production and innovation. The developed countries do not yet have the infrastructure of laboratories, libraries and universities like those in the 19th century. The country, which has lagged behind in the pace of progress, is now forced to face the challenges brought by information technology, social media and artificial intelligence. The country has reached the end of its progress by not being able to solve all these problems. This has created widespread anger and dissatisfaction in society.

The crop of ‘populism’ flourishes in the fields of discontent and anger all over the world. Right now, the Balen Shahs are trying to cultivate it. They now have a false narrative that the old parties and their leaders have ruined the country, that the country is trapped in a vicious cycle of underdevelopment because they are incompetent and corrupt, no matter how true or false that narrative is. But the old political parties and leaders have no other narrative left except to defend and oppose the status quo. In an interview, Gagan Thapa had said, ‘At this point, we have no hope left to show the people. Yesterday, when there was a Panchayat, we could have hoped that it would be okay after the monarchy was overthrown and peace was established. But after all these years of establishing a republic and maintaining peace, what can we hope for now?’ In competitive politics, having an explanation among the people means more than not having one, even if that explanation is wrong.