According to a recent report released by the National Statistics Office, the country is half way past its demographic gains. Due to the age structure of the population (the proportion of the working age population is higher than the dependent population), Nepal has come to the middle in terms of economic development potential.

The Bureau of Statistics predicts that this demographic dividend will continue for the next three decades. What is clear from this fact is that the country has not been able to make effective use of the demographic dividend that started in 2048 even for 4 decades. The country is not rich and the risk of getting old is increasing. 

However, according to the demographic structure, it is a reality that the country is now in a golden age. This favorable situation of low birth rate, low proportion of dependent population and high proportion of working age population is achieved by any country only once in a period of history. There are examples of countries that have made the most of their demographic advantage and have made rapid economic and social progress.

China from the 1980s to 2010s, South Korea from the 1960s to the 1990s, and Singapore from the 1970s to the 2000s made the most of their demographic advantage in the country's economic development. Vietnam has been using the same success story since the 1990s. 

Rwanda, an African country wracked by conflict in the past, has become a model of post-conflict revival as well as the best use of its demographic advantage. He is using the youth as the main driver of the country's development. For this, it is investing extensively in education, information and communication technology, job creation, health services and women's empowerment.

It is a matter of concern that the countries which are in a much poorer condition than Nepal in history entered the situation of demographic advantage during the time of Nepal and using it to leap forward in economic development and progress. 

Even today's fertile youth is entering the old club without making full use of it, the amount of absentee youth population in the country is high, the fertility rate is falling below the replacement rate and the birth rate is also continuously decreasing. If the population is not replenished in the near future, there are also signs of the risk of serious demographic problems.

This perspective calls for the 'urgency' of effective political, programmatic and practical efforts for the full use of the demographic dividend, the need for population management in accordance with the changing picture of the population and the changing structure and character of the society is also emerging.

According to the latest census, about 62 percent of the total population in Nepal is between the ages of 15 and 59. The number of people under the age of 14 is about 28 percent. In Nepal, the population of working age group is about 65 percent and the dependent population is 35 percent. In terms of economic and social development of the country, this is a situation of 'neither past nor future'. But we have already wasted half of this favorable time which lasts only 50/55 years.

Even more, the state of demographic benefits calculated on the basis of the ratio of the growth rate of the working age population compared to the growth rate of the total population. It will end from 2091 onwards. Therefore, if the youth resources available in the country are not adequately utilized within the remaining period, then our dream of getting rid of poverty, unemployment, underdevelopment, disease, hunger and suffering will not materialize. 

Recently, as Nepal is undergoing extensive demographic changes, the demographic structure of the country has reached such a state that the number of newly born children cannot even replace the population gaps caused by natural deaths. Diss. The population growth rate which was 2.62 percent in 2038 has dropped to 0.92 percent in 2078. In 34 districts of the country, the population growth is still negative, the average of which is minus 0.67 percent. Meanwhile, the fertility rate of women has decreased significantly. 

Fertility rate was 6.39 in 2038, but it dropped to 1.94 in 2078. This means that 100 women give birth to only 194 children in their lifetime. As a result, Nepal has now fallen below the replacement fertility rate ie 2.1.

23 percent of women of reproductive age have only 1 child, that is, one third of couples are now satisfied with only one child. The still birth rate (the number of live births per 1,000 population per year) has fallen sharply. Diss. In 2009, the birth rate was 45 to 50, but it has dropped to 14.2 in 2078. 

From 2058 to 2068, the growth rate of children's population was 0.46 percent, but when it reached 2068 to 2078, it was negative and dropped to 1.1 percent. Among the number of children, the number of children in the latter half of childhood (age group 10 to 14 years) is 29.5 percent, indicating that the rate of new children being born in the country is very low. The fact that only 71.3 percent of families in the country have at least one child also confirms that our society is becoming mature and adult. In urban areas, only two-thirds of families have children. 

In the past three decades, the structural ratio of children has changed and is decreasing, and there has been a high decline in the growth rate of girls. Fewer babies are being born is a matter of concern, the sex ratio of the babies being born is becoming more serious. Currently, only 100 girls are born out of 112 boys born in Nepal. It is clear that the sex ratio of new babies, which is about equal to 99.8 in 2058, now reaches 112, will affect the long-term demographic structure and gender equality.  According to

experts, such a baby sex ratio up to 105 is considered natural and natural. The gender ratio of new children is becoming uneven due to reasons such as giving birth to only one child and killing female fetuses after identifying the sex. In urban areas and in families with high economic, social and educational status, it is conceivable that such a situation is more severe. In general, the reduction of children means the reduction of tomorrow's population and labor force, which is also a sign of danger for the country as a whole. 

Not only the declining birth rate and low fertility rate, the population outside the country is also the main demographic problem today. According to the census data, about 2.2 million Nepalis have left the country from about 1.5 million households and 82 percent of them are men. This number is only the population who are temporarily outside the country for employment or other reasons and will return to the country in the future. If we add to this the size of the population who migrated abroad permanently, this number is naturally even higher. According to government data, 71 thousand Nepalese have emigrated as permanent residents in 2023 alone.  According to

data, most of the absentee population in the country is between 20 and 29 years old. Which is not only the most fertile reproductive age, but also the age to develop and utilize one's labor, skills, abilities and knowledge within the country. According to the census, the number of foreign women has increased by 71 percent in the last 10 years. The number of children who grow up with only one father or mother is increasing when the woman or man of the family moves away, while the possibility of having more children in the family is also decreasing.

Therefore, while imagining a beautiful future that we are in the golden age of demographic gains, it is felt that the vacancy created by the terrible migration of the young population is pushing the country towards a demographic crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to the proper use and management of the current youth power within the country, stabilization of the declining population at the desired rate, and the creation and mobilization of human capital.