The relationship between Nepal and China is thousands of years old, based on the exchange of goods, ideas and spiritual traditions along the ancient Silk Roads. Buddhist pilgrims such as Fasien and Xuanzang crossed the Himalayas and connected Lumbini, the birthplace of the Buddha, with the cultural centers of China.

 This historic friendship laid the foundation for modern diplomatic relations. which was formally established in 1955. Nepal became one of the first South Asian countries to recognize the People's Republic of China.

In October 2019, the relationship between the two countries entered a phase of transformation. Because, President Xi Jinping visited Nepal after 23 years as the head of state and at the end of that visit 20 agreements were signed between China and Nepal. The list of signed agreements included the implementation plan of the 'Belt and Road' cooperation.

In terms of China's approach to multi-continental engagement, the document of agreement transformed Nepal from a peripheral player to a strategic partner. Most importantly, President Xi said that BRI cooperation would be based on the principles of 'non-interference, equality and mutual benefit'.

This notion addressed concerns about Nepali sovereignty. It was a profound sign of a rising world power seeking to provide a lifeline for a small neighboring country to avoid backwardness, while respecting its autonomy. However, even after five years of President Xi's visit, Nepal's progress in this matter is very slow. 

Located between geopolitical superpowers and on the brink of economic despair, Nepal is now at a critical juncture. Neighboring countries are moving forward rapidly. A decade has passed since Nepal joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but Nepal's leaders are still stuck in a cycle of 'political paralysis' and 'self-defeating neutrality'. Now the question is whether Nepal can join BRI or not? Not that. The question is whether Nepal can stay away from it or not?

When Nepal stands between geo-political superpowers and on the brink of economic despair, it is appropriate for the leaders to take a clear decision now - to use the potential of BRI or remain in permanent immobility?

The bond of instability 

In Nepal, the government has changed half a dozen times in 5 years. Such statistics make it clear that Nepal has not prioritized long-term development. Each government comes with a new agenda and discards the previous administration's policies like a 'seasonal garment'. But let's see the results? The economic growth rate of Nepal is lower than that of countries like Bangladesh. 

Such instability discourages all kinds of investment whether domestic or foreign. Meanwhile, the "Mombasa-Nairobi Railway" built with Kenya's BRI has reduced transportation costs by 40 percent. Regional trade has increased. But Nepal is still struggling with normal road construction. Nepal's road density is only 0.3 km, which is even less than war-torn Afghanistan. Political infighting has made development secondary. More than the progress of the citizens, it seems to be entangled in the power struggle. 

However, Nepali leaders who are in the leadership in matters of cooperation with China have not shown the courage to put national interests above personal interests. Let's see some examples like : 

Former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, during his tenure, advanced the initial hydropower negotiations with China and laid the foundation of the 750 MW West Seti Hydropower Project. Former Prime Minister Jhalnath Khanal signed the first BRI Memorandum of Understanding between Nepal and China in 2017.

At that time, he said, "We cannot risk our future due to geo-political hesitation." The current Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has also taken decisive steps. He pushed ahead with the China-Nepal 'Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network' despite strong opposition from India-backed groups. Former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, while promoting the inclusion of BRI, called on Nepalese women and backward communities to "assert their rights in this national renaissance".

However, these efforts have been the exception. Such bold steps have not been institutionalized as Nepal's politicians are constantly embroiled in power struggles.

The illusion of neutrality

Nepal's strategy of sticking to 'neutrality' seems to be somewhat ridiculous geopolitically. Because, this policy has a weakness. A vivid example of which is India's blockade in 2015. The June blockade created disruptions in the transportation of fuel, food and medicine in Nepal for months. Instead of protecting the sovereignty, trying to maintain the balance between India, China and the Western countries, is not actually Nepal becoming a pawn of others? India's historical hegemony still persists, as its trade routes are indispensable to Nepal.

US aid through the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) comes with 'colonial-style' conditions, where Chinese companies cannot be involved. But BRI is not like that. BRI is an unconditional investment in Nepal's own infrastructure. However, the government of Nepal has not yet been able to fully assimilate it for fear of India's displeasure. Neutrality in this sense is not a strategy, but a form of surrender.

Rumors of 'debt trap'

Westerners paint China's BRI as 'debt-trap diplomacy'. But the reality is different. Only 2.85 percent of Nepal's total foreign debt came from China. While the remaining 97 percent of the debt is controlled by Western lenders. If China's debt is called a 'debt trap', the West's debt is a 'black hole'. Because of this, Nepal is tied to debt slavery forever. 

BRI can transform Nepal. Nepal's hydropower capacity is 50,000 megawatts. It can strengthen the economy by exporting to energy-starved countries like Bangladesh. The Budhigandaki hydropower project alone can generate 1200 megawatts of electricity. Because of this, it can protect Nepal from being dependent on fuel imports.

If the China-Nepal railway is built, the cost of transportation will decrease by 40 percent. Which will make Nepal free from Indian trade check points. However, those who criticize that 'there are only 9 projects' in Nepal under BRI are busy counting the data rather than the reality. The main problem is not the number of projects, but the implementation. Nepal should start working without delay. 

Youth's silent frustration 

Nepal's biggest problem right now is not potholes. The silent despair of the youth is a big problem. Because every day around 1000 Nepalese youths migrate abroad. This migration is not for the desire to travel abroad, but for survival. Young people queue up early in the morning at foreign embassies, sell their ancestral lands to become laborers in Gulf countries, or risk their way to work in India's informal labor market. The age group of 15-34 years accounts for 34 percent of Nepal's population. The migration of such young people means that the future of the country will start to migrate. 

BRI can solve the employment problem in such a situation. Every kilometer of railway construction can employ about 2,000 Nepalis, from engineers to hotel reception staff. Pokhara International Airport, built with the help of China, has created 1,500 direct jobs and 8,000 indirect jobs in tourism. So it is necessary to make it wider, it is appropriate to expand this model. 

30% of BRI project appointments can be made mandatory to be local under 35 years of age. Also vocational training can be provided in the fields of engineering, digital, logistics and renewable energy. China's 'Luban Workshop' technical schools established in BRI partner countries are a model for this. Nepal needs dozens of such institutes by 2030.

Four ways to protect existence

Now it is appropriate for Nepal to do four things to protect its existence. First, leave the party disputes and establish a national consensus. It is advisable to establish a 'National BRI Authority' as a non-political body headed by engineers, economists and experts without elections. The authority that monitors the projects. Kenya's central BRI coordination model is a proven example.

Second, energy self-sufficiency should be increased. It is advisable to speed up hydropower projects to export renewable energy instead of expensive imports. Electricity shortage Bangladesh is waiting for the decisive step of Kathmandu.

Third, colonialist aid must be rejected. Conditional aid like MCC should be waived. China's four decades of infrastructure-focused growth have proven that sovereignty and development are not mutually exclusive.

Fourth, geography should be used. The China-Nepal railway could reposition the country as a trading hub between Asia's two largest markets. 

An opportunity created by China-India relations

The recent improvement in China-India relations and the return of troops from the disputed border area and the resumption of dialogue have become an unexpected opportunity for Nepal. As Asia's two superpowers move consciously from confrontation to coexistence, Kathmandu finally has an opportunity to emerge from the 'buffer state'.

China has always made it clear that supporting Nepal is not a 'zero-sum game' against India. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in 2023, 'We support Nepal in the process of adopting an independent foreign policy. China has no geopolitical agenda here – we just want to see our neighbors prosper.' This is a golden opportunity for

Nepal. By deepening the BRI cooperation, by strengthening the relationship with India in a balanced way, Nepal can become not a 'battleground' but a 'bridge' in the new order of Asia. Because China-Nepal-India Economic Corridor, which was only imagined in the past, is now almost possible.

conclusion 

Nepal's policy-makers are debating the 'risk' of BRI. But still citizens are forced to bear load shedding. Farmers are transporting goods on bullock carts. Such a situation is negligence.

As economist Geoffrey Sachs says, 'Development is not a spectator sport.' Southeast Asian countries are moving fast in embracing the BRI, but Nepal is stuck in a state of stagnation. BRI is not a miracle solution, but the only viable option that can break the stagnation. Therefore, the policy makers of Kathmandu need to understand that this is not the time to count projects, but to create them. The journey out of poverty begins with a bulldozer and the courage to defy those who immobilize Nepal. Time is passing - will Nepal advance or fall behind?