Only two days are left for the start of Tihar. Three days until Lakshmi Puja. On this day, mainly gold and silver ornaments are worshipped. It is customary to use gold and silver instead of money in worship. The common people buy gold and silver ornaments, idols, coins, etc. according to their ability.

But the price of gold is setting new records day by day, pushing the market into confusion. After the Dashain public holiday, the price of gold had increased by Rs 7,400 per tola to Rs 230,600. After that, it continued to increase and crossed Rs 2.5 lakh per tola on Thursday (Asoj 30), according to the Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers Federation. This is the highest price ever.

When the federation fixed the price of gold on Asoj 30, the price of gold per ounce in the international market was $4,239. The price of gold per tola in the Nepali market has been fixed at Rs 250,900. When the federation fixed the price in the international market on Asoj 29, the price was $4,175. The price of gold per tola was fixed here at Rs 248,900. The price of gold in Nepal has crossed Rs 2.5 lakh after the international market increased by $64 per ounce on Thursday.

‘If the price of gold continues to rise at this rate, the general public will not be able to buy gold. During Tihar, the general public has placed orders mainly for Dhanteras,’ said Arjun Rasaili, president of the federation. ‘Assuming that the price will increase further, orders for jewelry have already come in for weddings in Mangsir, Magh, and Falgun. There are people who are ordering gold now for the season and leaving money. But there is no way to predict what the market will be like after Tihar.’

The federation determines the price by considering the international market as 75 percent and the Indian market as 25 percent. It has been determining the market price by considering the international market price, the dollar exchange rate, customs rate, and 1 percent profit (50 percent for banks and 50 percent for traders). Chairman Rasaili says that the price of gold in the international market is projected to reach Rs 265,000 per tola. He said that the Nepali jewelry market will also be directly affected if the price increases unnaturally.

‘The world economy is currently unstable . There is no investment environment around the world, there is a recession . On top of that, the customs duties increased by US President Donald Trump in various countries have also had an impact,’ said Chairman Rasaili, ‘That is why the powerful countries of the world have also increased their investment in gold, investors have increased their investment . Due to which the price is increasing .’

Even though the price of gold has increased now, Rasaili claims that the demand for gold has increased due to Tihar (Dhanteras). ‘Even though the National Bank has fixed a daily quota of 25 kg, the demand in the market has reached 40 to 45 kg . The old gold returned and gold from abroad have met the demand,’ he said .

Dhanteras, which was started in Nepal due to Indian culture and influence, has a separate religious belief . It is believed that goods purchased on the day of Dhanteras will enter Lakshmi . Due to which, businessmen say that as soon as Dhanteras approaches, the general public has started ordering jewelry. But they say that the price of gold is increasing day by day, and they are uncertain about what will happen to the market after Tihar.

‘The market is bustling because of Tihar. The business of jewelry is good until Tihar, but after that there is uncertainty,’ said Dharmasundar Bajracharya, first vice-president of the federation, ‘Nowadays, the number of people buying jewelry has also increased. The first priority is to buy gold bars, and as an alternative, they have also bought beruwa rings.’ Stating that the price of gold may increase further, the general public has preferred to buy gold bars, beruwa rings and coins as a safe investment. But according to the rules of the Nepal Rastra Bank, gold bars cannot be sold. Instead of bars, businessmen have sold beruwa gold rings and other items.

The wage for a beruwa ring is about 3/400 rupees. The maximum price of a jatri is three rals. Businessmen say that when selling to the general public, the businessmen deduct about 2 percent considering the risk. Jeweler Tej Ratna Shakya said that despite a 90 percent drop in jewelry sales, demand for gold bars, coins, and other items has increased. “Whenever customers come, their first choice is gold bars. But they cannot sell them as per the rules,” Shakya said. “It is happening in practice. Businessmen have not been able to meet the demand for gold bars, but there is no data.”

According to Shakya, international economists are predicting that the price of gold will reach 500 US dollars per ounce by December 2036. If an ounce reaches 500 US dollars, it will reach 300,000 rupees per tola in the Nepali market. Some economists are also predicting a sharp decline in prices. “If there is a sharp decline, it may decrease by 10 to 20 percent. There are also signs that the price will improve after Tihar,” said jeweler Shakya.

The number of people investing in gold has also increased due to the policy of the US central bank (Federal Reserve Bank). The bank has reduced the interest rate to 4 to 4.25%. Apart from the US, central banks in Canada, the UK, the European Union, Australia, Mexico, and Russia have also reduced interest rates. Investors are attracted to gold for its high returns due to falling interest rates.

The world's largest consumers of gold are China and India. It is followed by the US, the United States, Turkey, and Thailand. Experts say that increasing the gold reserves of these and other countries has further helped the price increase. Commercial banks are only allowed to import gold in Nepal. The gold imported by the bank is received by the businessmen on the recommendation of the jewelry business associations, federations, and organizations.