The National Statistics Office has predicted that the country's economic growth rate will be around 3.5 percent in the first quarter of the current financial year 081/82. The first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report published by the office on Tuesday has preliminary estimates of 3.4 percent economic growth in the same period of this year compared to the first quarter of last fiscal year.

During that period, the construction sector is projected to be negative and the expansion of some other sectors will shrink.  According to the

office, positive economic growth is seen due to the increase in agricultural production, electricity generation and distribution, tourism arrivals and the total value addition of the hotel sector. In addition to this, the growth in the transport sector, the growth in health services, the growth in the public administration sector, the overall economy is moving towards positive growth. It is estimated that the growth of the economy has remained normal due to the negative effects of floods and landslides during this period and the fact that the growth of the construction sector could not be positive. 

Similarly, compared to the first quarter of the financial year 2080/81, in the same period of the current financial year, the total value added growth rate of 17 of the 18 industrial classifications of the economy is positive. Out of which, the highest growth rate of activities related to electricity and gas is 21.4 percent, while the transportation and warehouse sector is 6.7 percent. 

"Accommodation and food services sector has maintained a growth rate of 6.3 percent. With the increase in deposits and loans, the value addition of the financial and insurance sector is estimated to be 5.7 percent," the report said, "Administrative Support Services The growth rate of the sector is 5.4 percent and the growth rate of professional scientific and technical services is 5.1 percent. However, the first of the current financial year Preliminary estimates suggest that the construction sector contracted by a small margin due to a decline in imports of construction-related goods in the quarter.

The office estimates that the growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector, which occupies the largest share in the economy, will be three percent. Hemraj Regmi, deputy chief statistics officer and spokesperson of the office, said that the increase in the production of annual crops including paddy and the increase in the production of vegetables, cash crops and livestock has had a positive effect on the total value addition of the region.

'There has been an increase in agricultural production due to the timely availability of fertilizers, the use of advanced seeds, and sufficient monsoon rains,' he says, 'However, the total value addition of the agricultural sector has not been significantly increased due to the damage caused by the floods and landslides.' 

The growth rate of wholesale and retail trade, the second largest sector of the economy, is also disappointing. According to the report, in the first quarter of the current financial year, there is a preliminary estimate of growth in this sector by only 0.5 percent. Regmi pointed out that the growth of the business sector was positive due to the general increase in the domestic production of agricultural and commercial goods and the import of major commercial goods.

 'In this quarter, the value added growth rate of the industrial goods production sector is positive by 2.3 percent. Compared to the first quarter of the last financial year, there is a gradual improvement in the production of industrial goods during the same period of the current financial year, so the initial estimate is that the growth of this sector is improving,'' he said. The growth rate of other activities in the service sector, including an increase of 3.1 percent, is normal.' 

Compared to the fourth quarter of the financial year 2080/81 (last May, May and June), the office has made an initial estimate of economic growth of only 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the current financial year (last July, August and October). is According to this, out of total 18 industrial sectors of the economy, the production of 12 increased and 6 decreased in the first quarter of this year.

The office has stated that due to the impact of negative growth and the general growth of other sectors, the overall gross domestic product is estimated to increase only by a small number. 

Compared to the fourth quarter of the last financial year, the office has estimated that the growth rate of the electricity and gas sector in the first quarter of the current financial year will be 8.5 percent and the information and technology sector will be 7.7 percent. "During this period, the growth rate of agriculture, forestry and fishing sector, which has the largest share in the economy, will remain negative by 0.8 percent," the report states, "Therefore, the initial estimate is that the growth rate of the overall economy will be limited to 0.2 percent."