Hanepa at the Center of the Power Equation in Bagmati
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With the collective resignation and withdrawal of support by six UML ministers participating in the Bagmati Provincial Government on Tuesday, the government led by Chief Minister Indra Bahadur Baniya has fallen into a minority. After meeting with Provincial Chief Deepak Prasad Devkota and withdrawing the UML's support for the government, Bagmati's politics has now shifted toward a new power equation.
From the UML, Minister for Industry, Commerce, Land and Administration Bindu Shrestha, Minister for Physical Infrastructure Development Dinesh Chandra Devkota, Minister for Health Kiran Thapa, Minister for Forests and Environment Bharat Bahadur KC, Minister for Agriculture and Livestock Development Madhusudan Paudel, and Minister for Labor, Employment and Transport Jayaram Thapa submitted their resignations to Chief Minister Baniya. The UML withdrew from the government in line with the agreement to advance a new power equation between the UML and the CPN at the provincial level across the country.
Currently, with six seats vacant in the 110-member Bagmati Provincial Assembly, there are 104 members in place. To form a government, the support of 53 assembly members is required. In the Provincial Assembly, there are 36 members from the Congress, 26 from the CPN, 25 from the UML, 12 from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), 3 from the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, and 2 from the Hamro Nepali Party (HANEPa).
In the current arithmetic, if the Congress and the CPN stand together, they will have 62 members, making it easy to form a government with a comfortable majority. However, if the UML and the CPN attempt to form a government, their total will be limited to 51, which is two short of a majority.
For this reason, the two-member HANEPa holds the decisive power in Bagmati's power equation. If HANEPa supports the UML–CPN alliance, they can reach a majority. Otherwise, they will have to seek the support of the RPP, which has 12 members. However, the RPP has not yet given any clear indication of supporting any alliance, while the Nepal Workers and Peasants Party has traditionally remained in opposition.
Meanwhile, there is talk in political circles that UML and CPN leaders have begun discussions with HANEPa regarding government formation. Therefore, the future of the government in Bagmati now appears to depend largely on the decision of HANEPa, which has two members. With the UML's exit from the government, whether Chief Minister Baniya will seek a vote of confidence or the process of forming a new government will begin will be determined by upcoming political developments.
